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Spaf

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday

Market Weather, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 1, 2005


Market Weather.

-> www.businessweek.com
-> www.reuters.com
-> www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Weather: Follow-Up: Last week news of the capture of Energy Horseman. Horseman fell $2.05, tumbled from horse and was arrested by valley musketeers :u. Horseman to be transfered to Valley jail on Monday, and arrained before JP. DA to charge Horseman with terrorism of market.
Lube at market closed Friday under $50 at $49.72. Valley folks threw big party in afternoon, learning of the capture of the Energy Horseman. Concern now is if Horseman can be kept secured in jail. Other Horsemen still roaming and may attempt to effect jail break :%. Local Sheriff seeking volunteer musketeers to help guard jail :#.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

-> www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
-> www.markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp

Doodles: S&P was at 1156.85, up +13.63
CMF money flow was at -0.021, rising.
RSI strength was at 46.3, rising.
MACD moving averages were at -8.91, rising, also at crossover.

Attachment: S&P chart (3mo.) ending 0429. Added: 50dMA.

Tea Leaves: Market changes :}very possible! However, Warning: Do not let oil get out of can! Screw cap on tight! Oil can be hazardous to your TSP :s!


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 50/50 (equities in C-fund) :cool:.

Rgds, and be careful!;) Spaf
 
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Someone asked to be notified when minutes of Fed meetings will be coming out. Three weeks from Monday or Tuesday I believe they will be coming out. They release the minutes three weeks after they have their meeting. The meeting is done before they talk to congress. Greenspan will be talking this week they should release the minutes in three weeks from this week. The minutes will be about what they talked about before Greenspan talks. Now, it appears to me the minutes have only had been feltonce so for. That was in January and I could be wrong. The minutes are suppose to be released to help the market get a better feel for where things are going. I suspect they are more careful in their minutes then they were the first time.
 
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learning

Just hope that OIL stays in the can. If he gets lose! Well
sterb195.gif


Rgds! :) Spaf
 
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Spaf wrote:
learning

Just hope that OIL stays in the can. If he gets lose! Well
sterb195.gif


Rgds! :) Spaf
Click to expand...
Somebody throw that can opener cause i am 100s right now...
 
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Don't look back. A new day is breakin' It's been too long since I felt this way. I don't mind where I get taken. The road is callin' Today is the day. I can see. It took so long to realize. I'm much too strong.

dylanomics
 
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Let me see... Oil is down, stox are starting off higher today, tomorrow is the announcement from the fed, asian countries are downplaying the North Korea situation.... Hmmmm... stox should go up today, right??? :^
 
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pyriel wrote:
Let me see... Oil is down, stox are starting off higher today, tomorrow is the announcement from the fed, asian countries are downplaying the North Korea situation.... Hmmmm... stox should go up today, right??? :^
Click to expand...
Kinda wondering on the moving averages crossing here......as well as the price breaking the longer average

Having problems getting the image pasted......dang......well take a lookat the 50 and 200 day averages crossing on the S&P 500...

I'll feel better when a couple of things happen......we get a drop or when this month is over....don't forget Friday the 13th is this month...a spooky market and a spooky day may not mix....just another reason for weird things to happen....

The Technician
 
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I don't think the market has any real steam behind it. Do you? If my thinking is correct, today will be mixed on middlin' volume as the Big Boys await tomorrow's word from the Fed. That is, a narrow move on the S&P will occur, say 5 points in either direction.

But then tomorrow has real potential. If the Fed comes out with the standard 1/4%and the standard language, "measured" etc, then tomorrow could be a very good day as the money rushes in to fill the void.

I am out today, 100G. So the question I have to answer is, -- before 1145 AM EDT -- will tomorrow be an up day and how much of my kitty do I want to put on the line? Fun.

Dave
 
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Since around the 20th of April....I've notice that the S&P market has finished the majority of the time on the high.....:)

I've got various term stochastics showing that they are rising but is the general market rising.....no.....so I wonder.....is that good..??? Its very unusual....:D

I believe someone brought up the other day that the market is day to day instead of cycling over every 3-5 days.....that is unusual.....certainly easy to get yanked ....:shock:

I still caution everyone until things settle down some ......this market action is weird.....no matter what the Fed meeting says....I believe "Stagflation" has settled in already.....and that isn't good.....:shock:

We'll get out opportunity soon enough....no sense in getting in a rush for a month....:^

But you right I also think the market today will be mild.....

The Technician
 
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The Technician wrote:
Since around the 20th of April....I've notice that the S&P market has finished the majority of the time on the high.....:)

I've got various term stochastics showing that they are rising but is the general market rising.....no.....so I wonder.....is that good..??? Its very unusual....:D

I believe someone brought up the other day that the market is day to day instead of cycling over every 3-5 days.....that is unusual.....certainly easy to get yanked ....:shock:

I still caution everyone until things settle down some ......this market action is weird.....no matter what the Fed meeting says....I believe "Stagflation" has settled in already.....and that isn't good.....:shock:

We'll get out opportunity soon enough....no sense in getting in a rush for a month....:^

But you right I also think the market today will be mild.....

The Technician
Click to expand...
I've gottencalculatedshort termdata from todays morning market action that indicates that the market has peaked for a few days.......its the same data that I use to get in or out....when I'm playing......so I would be out on this peak today.....;)

You may want to take a close look at today and determine if you should be in or out....seeing the Fed meeting is tomorrow.....anything can happen.:shock:

just to remind youI'm 100% G right now......so my action is nil on the info above.....

also, We're at the end of my two week warning (that you should take opportunity to get out if you are going to do so)......so now I'm open to anything happening in the market that is unusual.....:?

Themarket top line of 1229 should drop to 1190-1170's over the next week.....and it is possible 1139 should be challenged.....

The mix is starting to stir....

The Technician.....
 
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I took the plunge...put 10% in the C fund for tomorrow. Yeah, I'm not plunging much am I. If it works out, maybe tomorrow I will increase my exposure. If not, a quick retreat will bein order. What we need is a little irrational exuberance in the market!

Dave
 
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Exuberance....Now thats a big word!

USATODAY had a little exub:



Crude-oil prices hovered around the flatline amid continuing expectations supply concerns would ease.

Adnan Shihab-Eldin, acting secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday that OPEC's current output of 29.7 million barrels a day was expected to approach 30 million b/d, covering increasing demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2005.

"That means more than 2 million b/d of extra supply in the market, so stocks will continue to build up," he said in Doha.
I feel better! ;) Spaf
 
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Looks like todays action has pertered out......I'm thinking they are going to support tomorrow mornings action and then cash out some in the afternoon.....after our buddy Greenspun has had his say......:X

Any thoughts on that?:cool:

The Technician:dude::zz
 
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If you are right, Technician, then it is hopeless for you and I. We can't do half-days!

I do get the sense that there was some back-orderedbuying this morning, maybe late orders left-over from last week, which led to a rise at the bell. Then programed trading or simple profit-taking took us back down to the open by mid-afternoon which is where we stand now. This sort of epitomizes what you are saying if I get you right.

Dave
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 2, Closing


Market News.

News: Horseman Escapes. Musketeers returning from lunch found jail ceiling open. Energy horseman seen scampering up market street. Horseman climbed $1.20 to escape at 50.92. Deputy constable Barney was quoted as saying "We locked the door but didn't nail down the ceiling, but we a gitten a possie together to try and get him back"

Also big meeting tomorrow. Dollar general chief to yak.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles: S&P at1162.16 up +5.31
CMF money flow at -0.050, falling.
RSI strength at 48.5, rising
MACD moving averages at -7.79, rising, crossing bullish.

Tea Leaves: Caution fall hazard in market. Oil squirted out of can. Watch your step.


Yak.

Remarks:Gave 10% to S-fund, will be holding 40/60
 
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Lots and Lots of money short the market. If the Fed comments are measured, and money comes into the market, we could see a nice rally due to short-covering. " LET THE SHORT-COVERING RALLY BEGIN"... COULD EASILY TAKE US THRU THE 1180'S.. Any thoughts on this matter? "What say you?" Not sure what happens after that, but the rally sure would be nice.
 
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I do not believe that the Fed will say anything bad. I suspect the dollar will fall a little. I have no idea what the market will do. These are just my thoughts. The maket has me spinning in circles.:oo
 
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