Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

Last week ended slightly up, however see-sawing up and down. Market timing is unclear, and even slightly negative. A lot of the recommendations show a hold, and short term trends indicates a sell (S&P 500). The majority of equities are not particiating in a movement to advance. Money flow indicators (CMF) for last week were strongly negative, between -0.2 to -0.3.

One analysis indicated that this week could be up, because of the good earnings reports, and the market was firming up. This could produce a strong ralley, but it wasen't their call. Ifstrong support developed into future gains, the market could shift out of neutral.

MHO: The market is a gamble at present, till a primary movement is re-established (bull or bear).

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 for the last 3 months with a 50 day moving average and a MACD plot (moving average convergence divergence).

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

looks like a cup and handle Spaf!

also OPEC could be in trouble with the U.S. OPEC wants oil to be at about $50 a barrel. I don't think they willget it right now.

Let us drill Alaska and let China pay OPEC's price for oil.

http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/013005/sta_20050129016.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/01/21/alaska.oil.ap/

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

PLUS!

i see a failed attempt for crude to make a new high at just over $50. No one will want oil as the seasons are changing in the U.S. and Iraq is becoming a free nation and friend of the U.S. Elections appear to be a major victory 4 dubya and the iraqi people.



Oil is coming down.

and the equities will roar upwards!!!!:^

JMHO
tekno

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

Japan opens @7pm and if theymay not join our glee club.

Many times the "US" see things different than the rest of the world...LOL...

News out of Japan today (Monday there)...


>> Toshiba Sees 8% Drop In Operating Profit On Sinking Chip Prices <<:X

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.

Do not be misled everytime oil has been at this level we have gone into recession...PEs are based on $30 oil and Greenspam is using $25 a barrel for their data...why because that holds SS increases down and in effect helps the deficiet.

It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^(max bonus).

See ya.

MT

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.

*****really...they just announced that 50 bucks per barrel was their target. who said they cut anything? they simply wish 2 hold a 50buck/barrel level.

Do not be misled everytime oil has been at this level we have gone into recession...PEs are based on $30 oil and Greenspam is using $25 a barrel for their data...why because that holds SS increases down and in effect helps the deficiet.

*****AG does not even care what OPEC does now...LOL. he has allied himself with dubya therefore his two major concerns are 1) why andrea mitchellhis liberal wife makes him sleep alone and ride in the trunk and 2) if this fiat dollar policy blows up in disaster how history will remember him.

It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

*****going to get ugly...where were u in jan. 2005 pal. oh i forgot "UP 27% in one month"...the worst month since 2000...LMAO

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^ (max bonus).

*****quit now take the 27% and beat her by much more.....:shock:

See ya.

****where??

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Mr Bucks,

OPEC did not cut production...because freaking oil is $50 a freaking barrel.

If oil was at $40 they would of cut production...there target is around $45 a barrel.


It is going to get real ugly out there...but those who know how to invest on the other side are making tons...I am up 27% so far this year...

I think I should be able to beat the S&P by 5 points :^ (max bonus).

See ya.

MT

Why is this guy still here? Market must be getting ready to go up. From what I've seen, he shows up when market is going up to scare people into hedge funds. Glad I'll be 100% stocks this week.

You'll be in stocks the week of halloween right?

 

[Citizen]

imported post

I'm beating the S&P this year. I've lost just under 2% since Dec 30th.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Citizen.......Most stops are at 10% when there is a decline. Your 2% is beating the stops. No one can forecast the market, we can only play movements. Right now we don't have a clear primary movement. Recent charts indicate a negative money flow. It's murkey, it's wait and see.

The 1-2 day transfer time for TSP can causetail chasing!

Rgds, hoping themarket will turn bullish! Spaf

 

[Mike]

imported post

Futures markets are up pretty strongly right now, so it looks like we'll have a higher open in the morning.

Hong Kong and Japan are up pretty strongly right now as well.

 

[Guest]

imported post

tsptorture wrote:

Why is this guy still here? Market must be getting ready to go up. From what I've seen, he shows up when market is going up to scare people into hedge funds. Glad I'll be 100% stocks this week.

You'll be in stocks the week of halloween right?

Do not think there are many people on this board that can make the $100M mimimum to invest in the fund....the people I manage money for are in silver, gold, Australian/New Zealand dollar. There is NO value in the U.S. stock market...it was one of the worsemarkerts in 2004 and that will continue. The Dow was up 4% last year....YAWN.

Good luck out there. I am just trying to provide data tothe hard workingTSP folks.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Sell into any rally...

I said they market was going to crater after the New Year in August 2004 when I started on this board...I was told I was NUTS. Now the naysayers....with their outstanding one line comments. Losing money hurts...take action.

Once again in a couple weeks you will see I was right again and still be in denial.

Do not be a deer in the headlights that can not make a move.

The problem here is the greed, year 2000 factor. If I get out of the market I am going to lose money....well wise guy...you are losing money staying in.

Good luck out there.

OPEC has a target between 45-50 a barrel Mr Bucks. Not to bad when you figure it costs them about .50 a barrel to get out of the ground with their $1.00 a day labor costs - steep overhead there!

 

[Guest]

imported post

And shorting the he** out of the blue chip dividend paying stocks "the experts"have been to say will be up the most do to the new tax law....I love the drug stocks...to short the heck out of them!!!! Also shorting the high tech, high stock options stocks - like Lucent, Ebay, Overstock, TZOO, etc, etc.

Bear market is when the high flyers lose their wings....the others will get clipped also.

Just go back five years and see what happened in 2000....January the market went down sharply....then the buy on dip crowd came on board...and the market went up in March and then the market fell off the table...THAT IS GOING TO happen again.

Sell into any rally....you can all ways buy em back.

Risk reward and capital preservation.

Easy to make money - hard to keep.

The S&P 500 only went up about 8% last year...it is down 3-4% now...do not give back an entire year of gains in two months.

Good luck out there!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:

tsptorture wrote:

Why is this guy still here? Market must be getting ready to go up. From what I've seen, he shows up when market is going up to scare people into hedge funds. Glad I'll be 100% stocks this week.

You'll be in stocks the week of halloween right?

Do not think there are many people on this board that can make the $100M mimimum to invest in the fund....the people I manage money for are in silver, gold, Australian/New Zealand dollar. There is NO value in the U.S. stock market...it was one of the worsemarkerts in 2004 and that will continue. The Dow was up 4% last year....YAWN.

Good luck out there. I am just trying to provide data tothe hard workingTSP folks.

 

[Mike]

imported post

Actually, the S&P went up about 10% last year. At least get your facts straight before preaching the doom and gloom. :s

 

[Guest]

imported post

Yes 10% if you had no management fees...you have to account for fees and expenses.

Brazil was up 48% last year...and that was after fees as one example.

Keep up the great nit picking and watch your S and C spin in the toilet prior to the big flush.

Market tops happen with IPO mania and M&A.

Good luck out there.

MT

 

[Mike]

imported post

If fees and expenses are taking away 20% of your return (dropping it from +10% to +8%), you are in one horrible fund. :shock:

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike,

S&P 500 returned 8.99 for 2004. Have you ever got a dividend in your TSP S, C or I fund. With reinvestment dividend your return would be 10.88.

Hey what is the deal with not getting a quarterly dividend in your C fund???? Ever ask.

Good luck out there.

No reinvestment dividend...no free shares...hence your reture is chopped off at the knees.

So rounding...9% minus your 1% fee equals 8% so my figures are correct and accurate....I face reality and use TRUE figures.

Also while I was in the TSP funds I asked over and over WHERE IS MY DIVIDEND IN MY c, s and I funds....ALL YOU GUYS MAY WANT TO ASK ALSO...because moving forward dividends will be the larger share of returns.

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike is your first name Milk...because you sure act like him.

I saw the sky is blue he would say green...you are just like him.

Face reality...you are not getting the dividend in your C fund so that is a large chunk of the total return you are NOT getting.

Ya need to factor that into your thinking.

The U.S. stock market is a dud....

Good luck out there.

MT

 

[Mike]

imported post

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-current.html

C fund return for 2004 was 10.82%. Please quit spreading misinformation. This is nearly 3 points higher than your supposed 8% return on the S&P.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Did you get a dividend???

Is that misinformation...did you get a dividend?????????????

The total return of the S&P 500 was 10.88 without the dividend the total return was 8.99.

Did you get the dividend??

You need to wake up and face reality...sometimes the govt fudges the truth a little.

Like if you add the colums up the return is not 10.88...HMMM.

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-factsheet.html#last12months

Good luck out there, Milk...my little lab rat.

MT