Market Talk / September 3rd - 9th

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
September 5, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube retreats! Storm count drops! And, [CVX] find lost oil in Gulf!

Con-Yak...................................It sure is hot here!

Jester-Yak................................Shuuu! I think I see a fish!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1313.25, up +2.24
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.185, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+10.383, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........95.19, flat.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 68.71 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................68.60, dn -0.59
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Green [doodles +3-2 / Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G/F.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1300. Trail: 1287.

 

[ChongoChingi]

Is today the begining of the correction? I have only been watching this site for a month or two but this is the sharpest drop I have seen, in the morning, in my short time.

 

[Show-me]

No one can say they know for sure. Just keep a eye on it.

 

[Pilgrim]

Looks like we are going sideways until 2pm, when the beige book is released. Anyone had a sneak preview they want to share??

 

[Ghageman]

We're only down .5% on the S&P. Not enough for me to jump back in...
Give it some more time.

 

[JOVARN]

I was watching squawk box this am and one of the talking heads quoted a financial analyst who said that the NASDAQ was in for a 20% correction and that he would sell if he owned any. This is a paraphrase but that was the sum of it. This occurred just prior to the market open.

 

[JOVARN]

If that occures it will be an early Christmas for me just buy and hold till Feb

 

[Birchtree]

Everybody loves Raymond and the G fund - be courageous and hold yourselves steadfast to your positions of comfort. The bull can only carry a select number of participants. No need to make rash decisions. Snort.

 

[Show-me]

Everybody loves Raymond and the G fund - be courageous and hold yourselves steadfast to your positions of comfort. The bull can only carry a select number of participants. No need to make rash decisions. Snort.

(sigh)

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
September 6, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube production up, futures down!

Con-Yak...................................Woops! Labor cost up! Some areas slowing!

Jester-Yak................................Cooling off!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1300.36, dn -12.99
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.170, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.545, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........78.54, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 56.76 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................67.50, dn -1.10
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red / Green [doodles +1-4 / Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G/F.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1300. Trail: 1287.

 

[Birchtree]

The bigger the tree the harder they fall. I'm running the risk against a tepid September and a 4-year cycle low in October all for the love of a 3 of 3 wave to the upside. If I out run any calamity then the win will be gracious and appreciated - I'm already starting to prepare for 2007 and beyond. Snort.

Does it make a difference whether or not it's like 1995 or 2003 - nah not really. Both years were followed by a continuation of the bull market. The sky is the limit - just not recognizable for the moment - but that's the way it always is. Although there were some heavy slams in 1997 and 1998. Time will tell the true story of the Republican revolution. Hooah.

 

[Pilgrim]

Talking heads starting to use the "R" word. Schwab lady is giving 50% odds. Interestingly, she talks as if the market is expecting the Fed to begin lowering rates. Her take on the losses yesterday seems to be that the latest news on wage increases will have the effect of delaying the cuts.


Odds higher for U.S. recession: Schwab strategist
Cash, bonds, large-cap stocks recommended as top defensive investments



By Paul Lin
Last Update: 4:03 PM ET Sep 6, 2006

"The odds of the U.S. economy slipping into recession within the next year have climbed to 50% and investors should stay defensive, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab & Co.'s chief investment strategist, said Wednesday."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={0DEF8EB3-7ED8-471A-92F3-CF3F2AC6868D}&siteid=

 

[The_Technician]

The bigger the tree the harder they fall. I'm running the risk against a tepid September and a 4-year cycle low in October all for the love of a 3 of 3 wave to the upside. If I out run any calamity then the win will be gracious and appreciated - I'm already starting to prepare for 2007 and beyond. Snort.

Does it make a difference whether or not it's like 1995 or 2003 - nah not really. Both years were followed by a continuation of the bull market. The sky is the limit - just not recognizable for the moment - but that's the way it always is. Although there were some heavy slams in 1997 and 1998. Time will tell the true story of the Republican revolution. Hooah.

Think you snorting coke this time Birchy.....what you just might be seeing is a failure to establish a new high.....RECESSION is the reason.....its gonna be a couple of years before the consumer can recover from the great oil profits scheme the market players produced for the last two years....watchout, there might be a little Mikey or Joey around the corner with a BB gun gonna attack an oil pipeline or whatever....oooooo, we should raise oil prices some more......aaahhh the world is coming to an end thingy.....:nuts:

 

[Pilgrim]

Bonds down, then up. But, as CNN reports "Treasury traders are keeping a close eye on speech later today by San Fran Fed President Janet Yellen"

Anyone know what time she is talking?

 

[Fivetears]

Will she be a YELLIN'? :nuts:

 

[Fivetears]

Callin' for some SELLIN'? :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Bonds down, then up. But, as CNN reports "Treasury traders are keeping a close eye on speech later today by San Fran Fed President Janet Yellen"

Anyone know what time she is talking?

2:40 PM

 

[robo]

The bigger the tree the harder they fall. I'm running the risk against a tepid September and a 4-year cycle low in October all for the love of a 3 of 3 wave to the upside. If I out run any calamity then the win will be gracious and appreciated - I'm already starting to prepare for 2007 and beyond. Snort.

Birchtree,

Did you call Henry? He's BAAAAACCCCCK!!!! For how long is still to be determined....

He stated any low volume sell-off would be a buy for him......

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
September 7, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube lowest since February, supplies good!

Con-Yak...................................Socks down on inflation woes!

Jester-Yak................................More rates, less economy, more or less!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1294.02, dn -6.24
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.194, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+4.662, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........51.98, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 52.09 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................67.32, dn -0.18
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red / Green [doodles +2-3 / Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G/F.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1300 [broken]. Trail: 1287.

 

[robo]

Birchtree,

I think Henry is now a member of TSPTALK. He made his move after, Griffinn, Gilligan, FundSurfer, Milkman, NNuut, and many more made a IFT today...

Even Technician joined the Party... I hope it's a good trade for all!!!

Two TA's now shorting...

Five cash...

3 Long 50% to 100% but two expecting more weakness....

Could be a contrarian Indicator. Short-term coin toss. We are short-term over sold...

I think next week it's Quadruple Witching Expiration.

With September's being a bad month for stocks it could be a wild ride.

Lure the bears into a heavy short postions, wait for their their options to expire, THEN BAM!!! Let it drop..... Watch out here....



Smart Money 38% dumb 50%

Closed out my shorts today QQQQ's and went long in my brokerage account.

Lost money on the short trade, but got a nice chunk back the last two days... I was early in the postion...

100% G Fund, will buy the I Fund if weakness contiues tomorrow. 20% buy in... However, I hope we get a rally for those that went long today...

Good trading/investing...



Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Profit-Taking Puts a Dent in the Rally
The stock market finally realized that it was time to do some profit-taking and tumbled back to the support areas formed last week. The bond market had been in a correction since Friday's unsurprisingly tame Employment Report. It was about time that stocks realized that one of their main supports -- falling interest rates -- weren't falling anymore!

The reaction of the crowd to the dip was revealing. While some are calling a major top in stocks -- for instance, Walt Bressert, considered by many to be the original cycles guru, sent out an email this morning which declared the 36-year cycle had double topped and the "THE BULL IS DEAD" -- the crowd certainly must be agreeing with these warnings. We can tell because both the OEX and the QQQ option traders poured exactly twice as much money into put options (which rise when the market crashes) as call options. Clearly, the crowd is likely to be disappointed once again. If the market just noodles around for a little while, those expensive puts are going to lose most of their time value. We'll worry when the crowd is eager to spend twice as much money on calls on dips! As a matter of fact, that's exactly what the crowd did at the 2000 top.

Tops, even the relatively minor top we've been expecting to develop now, take time to build and those put options aren't likely to pay off with a big jackpot, especially when the majority is heavily buying them. The market is just perverse enough to move sideways, destroy the time value of those puts, let them expire worthless, then make its big move to the downside. That's why we generally think that shorting puts and calls is a much more profitable game for those so inclined to play in the options "street".