-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Market Talk / September 17th - 23rd
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
The_Technician
Active member
With the markets closed we could be looking at
G - 0
F-
C- -.08
S- -.11
I- +.14
but I really think they will be somewhere around those numbers....
G - 0
F-
C- -.08
S- -.11
I- +.14
but I really think they will be somewhere around those numbers....
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Is this a pause?
Con-Yak...................................Manufacturing slowing!
Jester-Yak................................Woops!
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1318.03, dn -7.15.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.158, falling.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+6.404/6.258, weaking.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............down at +0.145.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........81.28, falling.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 60.44 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.59, up +0.85
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Red.
Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1312. Trail: 1299.
The Kingdom of TSP
Catfish Channel
Daily Edition
September 21, 2006 Closing
September 21, 2006 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Is this a pause?
Con-Yak...................................Manufacturing slowing!
Jester-Yak................................Woops!
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1318.03, dn -7.15.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.158, falling.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+6.404/6.258, weaking.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............down at +0.145.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........81.28, falling.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 60.44 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.59, up +0.85
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Red.
Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1312. Trail: 1299.
Which door has that Pit-Bull Spaf? 
We need to find a dog chewing up a smilely.
We need to find a dog chewing up a smilely.
Yesterday
Today
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Which door has that Pit-Bull Spaf?
We need to find a dog chewing up a smilely.
The door marked "Philly Fed"!
Agree!.....Lookin for one. Ifn you see 1 let me kno!.......
James48843
Well-known member
That "housing market" chart on the front page today certainly got my attention.
What do you all think- is that where we are headed?
What do you all think- is that where we are headed?
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Here is an interesting statistic I ran across. Ninety percent of all stock is owned by 10% of investors. Can you imagine the potential? I've been waiting for mom and pop Chinese to come on board when all I need to do is talk to my friendly neighbors. A retiree with a decent portfolio doesn't sell stocks to buy groceries or pay the mortgage. He can easily live on dividends and interest while preserving assets for his grandchildren. And if wealthy retirees don't sell their assets, they won't put pressure on valuations. Sounds reasonable to me. I'm primed for the next five years.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I think the 10 year Treasury went out at 4.60%, that's a wicked inverted yield curve - enough to scare everyone. Me excluded. As in the 1994-95 experience the T-bill appears to have unlinked with the fed funds rate. Following the same pattern as it did in 1995 as the market was about to lift-off into a 50% gain in the next 15 months, and 165% over the next four years. Snort.
The_Technician
Active member
Guess which fund was the big winner of the week!
The F-und
[Last Friday: 10.90. || This Friday: 11.01]
Never would have figured it would jump like this......she is definitely max to the wall right now....
I think the Japanese and Aussie's have been looking at that chart too. :nuts:
robo
Well-known member
A Market Timer's Worst Enemy
If you're not careful, you could be your own worst enemy.
There are many different ways to sabotage your efforts as a market timer. Some of them are at the forefront of your mind, such as not trading the strategy, while others are deep seated; they lurk at the back of your mind and work behind the scenes.
Make sure that you are not unwittingly sabotaging your own efforts to time the markets profitably.
Trading By The Seat Of Your Pants
Many market timers are conscious of how they ruin their own market timing efforts.
The common way is to make buy and sell decisions by the seat of one's pants. Rather than following a timing strategy, those new to market timing often make their timing decisions as they go along.
What usually happens, unfortunately, is that one doesn't have a clear idea of when to enter, exit, or what to do when market conditions don't meet their expectations. And market conditions "usually" do not meet anyone's expectations!
Without clear buy and sell signals, one is likely to panic at key moments in a market timing strategy, and act impulsively.
It is common for new market timers to say, "I don't know what it is, but I can't stick with my timing strategy."
The usual explanation, however, is that the trader is not actually following a strategy at all. All successful market timers need a clearly specified strategy that can be easily followed. A clear roadmap is the best weapon against self-destruction.
Controlling Risk
Traders also sabotage themselves by failing to control risk adequately. Carelessly risking substantial amounts of capital on a single trade is one example. This is likely to produce a significant blow to one's account balance should the trade be a loser.
"A clear roadmap is the best weapon against self-destruction."
Whether the outcome is favorable is not the only relevant issue, however. Merely knowing that one is taking an enormous risk carries a toll psychologically.
The added stress usually takes the form of extreme impulsivity. The best antidote to this problem is to carefully manage risk and lessen the potential negative impact of a losing trade.
This can be accomplished "only" by following a well planned timing strategy and sticking to it absolutely.
Most of FibTimer's strategies have some diversification built into them. There is a reason for this. Diversification keeps losses from any one trade to a minimum!
Once you believe that you have little to lose on a single trade, you will feel more at ease, and you'll be less likely to make impulsive trades, or to skip a trade out of fear.
Conclusion
Once you know your long-term strategy is realistic, you will be able to follow buy and sell signals decisively, calmly, and with self-confidence. Look at the historical trades of the FibTimer strategies you plan to follow and get a feel for what to expect.
You will see that there are losses, but those losses are always very small. You will also see that the winning trades are often "high profit" wins, and also last for longer periods of time, sometimes many months.
This is because trends are where the profits are, and profitable trends often last a long time. The losing trades are usually of short duration.
Do not underestimate the many different ways it is possible to sabotage your efforts.
Consider the possibilities and make sure they aren't working behind the scenes to waylay your best-laid plans to profitably time the markets.
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
If you're not careful, you could be your own worst enemy.
There are many different ways to sabotage your efforts as a market timer. Some of them are at the forefront of your mind, such as not trading the strategy, while others are deep seated; they lurk at the back of your mind and work behind the scenes.
Make sure that you are not unwittingly sabotaging your own efforts to time the markets profitably.
Trading By The Seat Of Your Pants
Many market timers are conscious of how they ruin their own market timing efforts.
The common way is to make buy and sell decisions by the seat of one's pants. Rather than following a timing strategy, those new to market timing often make their timing decisions as they go along.
What usually happens, unfortunately, is that one doesn't have a clear idea of when to enter, exit, or what to do when market conditions don't meet their expectations. And market conditions "usually" do not meet anyone's expectations!
Without clear buy and sell signals, one is likely to panic at key moments in a market timing strategy, and act impulsively.
It is common for new market timers to say, "I don't know what it is, but I can't stick with my timing strategy."
The usual explanation, however, is that the trader is not actually following a strategy at all. All successful market timers need a clearly specified strategy that can be easily followed. A clear roadmap is the best weapon against self-destruction.
Controlling Risk
Traders also sabotage themselves by failing to control risk adequately. Carelessly risking substantial amounts of capital on a single trade is one example. This is likely to produce a significant blow to one's account balance should the trade be a loser.
"A clear roadmap is the best weapon against self-destruction."
Whether the outcome is favorable is not the only relevant issue, however. Merely knowing that one is taking an enormous risk carries a toll psychologically.
The added stress usually takes the form of extreme impulsivity. The best antidote to this problem is to carefully manage risk and lessen the potential negative impact of a losing trade.
This can be accomplished "only" by following a well planned timing strategy and sticking to it absolutely.
Most of FibTimer's strategies have some diversification built into them. There is a reason for this. Diversification keeps losses from any one trade to a minimum!
Once you believe that you have little to lose on a single trade, you will feel more at ease, and you'll be less likely to make impulsive trades, or to skip a trade out of fear.
Conclusion
Once you know your long-term strategy is realistic, you will be able to follow buy and sell signals decisively, calmly, and with self-confidence. Look at the historical trades of the FibTimer strategies you plan to follow and get a feel for what to expect.
You will see that there are losses, but those losses are always very small. You will also see that the winning trades are often "high profit" wins, and also last for longer periods of time, sometimes many months.
This is because trends are where the profits are, and profitable trends often last a long time. The losing trades are usually of short duration.
Do not underestimate the many different ways it is possible to sabotage your efforts.
Consider the possibilities and make sure they aren't working behind the scenes to waylay your best-laid plans to profitably time the markets.
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
Similar threads
- Article