Market Talk / Oct. 5 - 11

Opinions, everyone has one, but real inflation is not a good thing!

We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers
By CNBC.com | 10 Oct 2008 | 07:26 AM ET

Markets do not trust the governments' plans to keep struggling banks alive and investors will only calm down when the companies with bad assets are allowed to go bankrupt, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Friday.

"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.

"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
And the plans are unlikely to fend off a severe economic downturn, as the crisis starts affecting all walks of life.
"We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers said.
"Many people bought 4-5 houses with no money down and no job… you think we'll just say well, that's too bad, we'll start over and nobody loses their job? Be realistic."
People should not look to the upcoming G7 meeting with the hope that the leaders of the strongest economies will find a solution.
"What they (G7 leaders) need to do is go down the bar and leave the rest of us alone," Rogers said.

Economies who did not take part in the subprime bonanza are likely to suffer along with Wall Street and the developed economies as the crisis unfolds, he warned.
"What about all the people in countries that minded their manners, saved their money, didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks?"
"I thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in a bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis," he said.
There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.

"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products… there's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27097823
 
What it Would Take to Trigger Automatic Stock Halts
As harrowing as the U.S. stock market's plunges have been in recent days, they still haven't been enough to trigger the "circuit breaker" mechanisms that result in an automatic timeout in trading.

The Big Board implemented the automatic halts after the stock market crashed in the late 1980s to force traders to take a break from frenzied selling. But even amid the massive losses seen in the market this week, the thresholds have yet to be breached, unlike in many other nations which have temporarily suspended trading multiple times.

On Friday, the stock exchange in Vienna was suspended until midday after stocks tumbled 10% at the opening bell, and in Russia representatives of the MICEX and RTS exchanges said they suspended regular trading until further notice under orders from financial regulators.

Indonesian authorities suspended trading indefinitely on the Jakarta Stock Exchange after they had halted trading Wednesday after the index plunged more than 10%.

The Dow Jones industrial average would have to fall 1,100 points in a day to trigger the first halt. Based on Thursday's Dow close of 8,579, the threshold number to cause the market to stop on Friday would be 7,479. If that point is reached before 2 p.m., the market will shut down for an hour. If the threshold is breached between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m., the halt will last 30 minutes. No trading stops would take place if the plunge occurs after 2:30 p.m.

If the index were to fall 2,200 points before 1 p.m., the market would close for two hours. If such a decline took place between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., there would be a one-hour pause. The market would close for the day if stocks sank to that level after 2 p.m.

In the event of a 3,350-point decline, the market would close for the day, regardless of the time.

The thresholds are computed at the beginning of each quarter to establish a specific point value for the quarter. The 1,100-point drop represented a 10% decline at that time; the 2,200 level, a 20% drop and the 3,350 level is a 30% drop.

The rules would halt trading on the major securities and futures exchanges in a coordinated cross-market halt if the circuit breaker is enacted.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/trigger-automatic-stock-halts/
 
Yes, TSP site SLOW today.

SAME THING HERE . I am not sure my transfer went through , What a joke! first they restrict our trades now they block access totally. We are really getting the shaft. Who appointed these people, Or should I even ask
 
A couple possible explanations to what's been happening (I'd say pretty likely, IMHO)!
(Fairly plain talk/analysis -maybe obvious to some, but perhaps revelations to others of us still learning.) :(

http://www.trivisonno.com/fridays-trading-13
Friday’s Trading October 9th, 2008
Manage the Meltdown
Traders on Fast Money were agitating for the government to shut the stock market down and then start buying futures. That would force market-makers to buy massive amounts of stock when the market finally reopened. You definitely wouldn’t want to be caught short if that happened. Closing short positions at EOD is probably a good idea.

Ken Heebner (former World’s Greatest Investor before he got crushed in June) was also on CNBC.

He said something very interesting: the big brokers have turned themselves into bank-holding companies (probably to be eligible for TARP) and are now subject to stricter banking regulations. That is forcing them to de-lever, and they are calling in margin loans from hedge funds. The hedge funds have no choice but to dump stock, any stock, to meet these margin calls.

That explains a lot. But here’s the best part: Heebner said that this process will soon be complete “in a matter of days or weeks.”
Imagine “weeks” more of this! Or even “days!” Apple will be a penny stock!

By letting Lehman blow up, the Feds pulled the plug on the i-banks. The i-banks have now pulled the plug on the hedge funds. The hedge funds have pulled the plug on the world’s stock markets. Now, the question is: will people be scared enough by this to pull the plug on their mutual funds and complete a total meltdown?

It looks like CNBC’s “Save the Stock Market” telethon will be running around the clock. It’s 10:42pm and it’s still going…
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Also intersting analysis - and seemingly, closely confirms what's presented above!
http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
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RR...one of my favorites! Nice picture....John Wayne also. Anyway I guess we can't get back into the funds until Tuesday...cause of the holidays. They are buying banks now....not sure which ones. Gee I hope we get (taxpayers) stock options...however we probably wouldn't want to exercise them. Waiting to get back into the C fund...but every time I get close the C drops more. Maybe the bank buying socialism will prop the mkt up temporarily. Then they will all say....what about me!!!!! Let them fall....take the blow...rought it out for awhile!!!
 
Enjoyed reading your explanations on the hedge funds...etc. very useful as I want to get into get back into the C fund. Thanks!
 
Nothing else for this week, see ya next!​

Will post an early edition of Market Talk​

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Spaf​

:D
 
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