Market Talk / May 21 - 27 II

[Spaf]

The pricing low point seems (appears) to have been yesterday at 1252.98 [S&P]. The bottoms have lasted from 3-6 days on previous corrections.

Krude did a steady climb all day on the hurricane fear. The sentiment turned real sour in the afternoon, like doomsday. It felt like Mr. Market just folded and left.

Rgds, and be careful!.................... .........................Spaf

 

[robo]

It's a "suckers rally".

Lured me in this morning when I saw green in Europe. Moved out of "G:" and into stocks.

I think I just fell for the sucker's rally.

Darn. I figured I'd learn by now.

The Senticator is Bullish. Maybe Mark Young is correct and we get a rally this week. However, plenty have been incorrect the last few weeks so I wouldn't feel to bad James. About 1 Trillion on paper lost so far. Maybe more.
Some of it is mine, or should I say was mine!


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/YOUNG.html

 

[robo]

SP500 AND THE 4 YEAR CYCLE

Given the sharp decline in the equity markets over the past few days, and the constant commentary we hear in the media in reference to the 4 year cycle, we thought it would be a good idea to share our thoughts about the subject.




http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

[Spaf]

- Forget it...We're staying in the cellar until fall?

Like we're in the sub-basement, licking the oil on the bottom of the elevator pit! :blink:

 

[Rod]

Today may be the day, fellas.

Nikkei closed UP 308.00. The biggest 1 day gain since Mar 9.

 

[pyriel]

But europe decided not to play...

 

[Rod]

But europe decided not to play...

It figures... huh?

 

[Rod]

JUST OUT:

Durable Goods for April down 4.8%

Where will this take us??? Perhaps it may lead to a pause in interest rate hikes???

Thoughts???

 

[Pilgrim]

JUST OUT:

Durable Goods for April down 4.8%

Where will this take us??? Perhaps it may lead to a pause in interest rate hikes???

Thoughts???

From Marketwatch: 8:53 am EDT

Stock futures rise after data on durable goods, with new home sales to come. Bird-flu worries may spread.

 

[Wizard]

JUST OUT:

Durable Goods for April down 4.8%

Where will this take us??? Perhaps it may lead to a pause in interest rate hikes???

Thoughts???

If you are in stocks. Now would be the time to bail. We are going to gap at the open but it is probably going to crap out before the close. Yes they are going to spin the fed is done - just like the last job report, remember?

The 5 year yield is 4.85%. The overnight rate is 5%. There is a 5 year auction tomorrow. The 2 year is 4.90%. I am getting 4.77% in my 30 day money market account. The auction tomorrow is not going to go swell. Another fed rate hike in less then a month.

We are going into a recession al la early 1970s.

This is my last post here due some behind the scenes conflicts that I do not have time for right now. Sometimes capital preservation is better then trying to catch the knife - now is one of those times.

As long as you keep hearing buy the dips we are going down. This is not a normal correction, this is the start of a deep drop.

Good luck.

 

[mlk_man]

This is my last post here due some behind the scenes conflicts that I do not have time for right now. Sometimes capital preservation is better then trying to catch the knife - now is one of those times.

As long as you keep hearing buy the dips we are going down. This is not a normal correction, this is the start of a deep drop.

Good luck.

Wiz, you do realize that when you leave the market usually rallies right?

 

[tsptalk]

Futures are up nicely across the board but fair value has it looking like a down opening. That may be what we need today.

 

[FundSurfer]

This is my last post here due some behind the scenes conflicts that I do not have time for right now. Sometimes capital preservation is better then trying to catch the knife - now is one of those times.

If you leave, Wiz, you'll miss that pat on the back when the SPX goes below 1257 which is where you said you went short. It's already slightly below that today (although should gap up at open), but the market could really drop depending on the news. I'd say you have a decent chance to get positive on your short position move by the end of the week.

I hope you haven't taken my verbal jabs at you the wrong way. I respect what you bring to the board even though I disagree with a bunch of it. (Note: I have not said/done anything behind the scenes to anyone. I do add to/and minus reputation on occasion but would only give minus to someone being a jerk. And if anyone is taking fustrations out on Wiz because he is a bear and the market is moving down, that would show no class.)

 

[mlk_man]

Wasn't me FS. In case anyone's wondering............

 

[tsptalk]

Red opening (Dow down 30) is now turning green. It didn't look like a capitulation, but combined with yesterday's late 100 point selloff, it just may be.

 

[davtrader]

SPX
maybe a 10:30 low then off we go

 

[mlk_man]

BREAKING
NEWS April New home sales rose 4.9 percent, analysts were expecting a decline. More soon.

 

[davtrader]

could be the day...MSFT AAPL GOOG ...The dead are waking up it seems

 

[Wimpy]

By Richard Daughty
" The Mogambo Guru"
May 24, 2006

www.dailyreckoning.com

- I hope that you receive this copy of the Mogambo guru newsletter, as I am in Mogambo Security Lock-Down Mode (MSLDM) at Security Level Three here at the bunker, and I am busily reviewing Mogambo Procedure Manual (MPM), trying to fix it in my mind, fix it in my mind, fix it in my mind that it is "Ask QUESTIONS first, THEN shoot", and not the other way around. Yet.

The reason for the heightened level of frightened paranoia probably has something to do with Total Fed Credit increasing by only $1million last week, which means that the banks ain't creating more credit with which borrowers make more money.
And it certainly has a lot to do with how Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve for 18 years, announced (trumpets blaring "taa-daaa!") that the housing market is heading to the bust stage of the "boom and bust" cycle! A bust is coming! A bust!

This is the very same Federal Reserve chairman who has repeatedly, and loudly, said that there is no bubble in housing, even as he was creating the money that paid for the housing bubble! Now, out of nowhere, he has now done a complete turnaround, and (again, to make sure you get the point) out of nowhere he announces that the bubble, that never existed, has burst! An invisible bubble has burst!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/may242006.html

 

[Birchtree]

Behind the scene turmoil - what did his employer, if he has one, finally nail him to the cross? Just when I was getting ready to reap golden praise upon him - a true gloom and doomer. Don't worry he's like a salamander - he'll surface once again soon enough - enjoy the neighborhood. I hope I've been politically correct enough.