Market Talk / May 21 - 27 II

[tsptalk]

Let's start fresh...

 

[TiCKed]

Let's start fresh...

Thank goodness....I was feeling so dirty.

(Does this mean we get to start the week over again? "I just moved to 50%G, 50% F".)

 

[Birchtree]

It seems I missed the party - has someone been calling me names again?

 

[Dave M]

It is easy to see why we're all a little edgy; a lot of wealth has evaporated lately. Soon it will be over.

But what is it? I read of Bernanke's comments before Congress over on CNN. We here expected some slight turmoil with his accession to the Chair. Now we can see that he did not fully appreciate his own gravitas and contributed to the mess we're in with his informal remarks.

Thankfully he promised to keep his trap shut from now on. Is this enough to restore sentiment? Is now the time to get back in?

Dave

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 23, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Sentiment sours! Vestors go from ice cream to pickles.
Other Yak................................Lube up $1.80 or 2.6% on hurricane woes.
Jester Yak...............................Got blown away did we!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1256.58, dn -5.49
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.081, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-10.664, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........,.10.83, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 29.46 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................71.76, up +1.80
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow

Tin Box:
Position.....................................90% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: NA. Trail: NA.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

It is easy to see why we're all a little edgy; a lot of wealth has evaporated lately. Soon it will be over.

But what is it? I read of Bernanke's comments before Congress over on CNN. We here expected some slight turmoil with his accession to the Chair. Now we can see that he did not fully appreciate his own gravitas and contributed to the mess we're in with his informal remarks.

Thankfully he promised to keep his trap shut from now on. Is this enough to restore sentiment? Is now the time to get back in?

Dave

So he apologizes, essentially, and the market sells off again. He should of just said 'no comment' . I know, monday morning QB. But late day sell off could be enough. So maybe it IS time, Dave.

 

[learning]

Well the new Fed said he was sorry. He should not have talked to anyone in the media. He will never do it again. He will watch what he says in the future. Well that makes my wallet feel all better now. Hey I'm up and it took Greenspan some time too.

As for the new thread. I missed what happened. No replays...

 

[Birchtree]

Robo,

To answer your question from my perspective - anytime is a good time to get back into the I fund. I don't have to make that decision because I don't get out - I'm looking for the top, not the bottom. Frankly, from a longer term perspective we have entered a phase of secular, or long-running growth on a global scale, not just a tempoorary cyclical upswing. I think most will be surprised at the strength of the economy and the markets. The current bull market is the fifth longest, so this correction is healthy. If I were accumulating a new position I would dollar cost average on the way up. The contributions to my international fund are monthly and I think things are very positive world-wide. Remember, the Nikkei based for 15 years. Will it go back to 39,000? Why not. Take care

Dennis -permabull #1

 

[Wimpy]

The FED's job is two-fold. The first part is to create inflation (monetizing debt) and the second part is to control the 'fear of inflation' by skewing the numbers (CPI) and jawboning. Jawboning will continue to be an integral part of the plan to keep this rolling economic train wreck on the tracks. It will work until it doesn't.

 

[TiCKed]

So he apologizes, essentially, and the market sells off again. He should of just said 'no comment' . I know, monday morning QB. But late day sell off could be enough. So maybe it IS time, Dave.

I could be wrong, but I think the "apology" was in the news LONG before the last hour sell off. Don't think the two were related.

So, what gets us out of the hole?
- Some bit of good news?
- Anxiety that Europe, (and maybe Asia), is taking off without us?
- Just a little more time, and the oversold will fix everything?
- Forget it...We're staying in the cellar until fall?

(I'm envisioning a big POP when it happens.....Like a coiled spring).

 

[Birchtree]

Not to sound selfish - but I'd certainly like to get a few more buys in the C fund for under $14.00 before that coiled spring lets go. This may be a U bottom rather than a quick V - but only the market knows for sure. I'm already thinking about the ride that is on the way for 2007.

 

[Show-me]

Bird flu

CNBC is reporting that a possible human to human case of bird flu. WHO is looking into it. Futures traders are reported to be selling off.

 

[Show-me]

I hope this is not true anyone else see it.

 

[bkrownd]

Re: Bird flu

CNBC is reporting that a possible human to human case of bird flu. WHO is looking into it. Futures traders are reported to be selling off.

Bird flu,..swine flu... Bah, not scared of the flu...unless its gecko flu. Wee buggers are all over my walls.

 

[TiCKed]

Re: Bird flu

CNBC is reporting that a possible human to human case of bird flu. WHO is looking into it. Futures traders are reported to be selling off.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12939359/

To quote a few lines:

"The World Health Organization said on Tuesday human-to-human transmission of bird flu could not be ruled out in the deaths of six Indonesians.

The virus has not mutated to become more dangerous, the WHO emphasized."

Too early to panic.....

 

[Show-me]

Re: Bird flu

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12939359/

To quote a few lines:

"The World Health Organization said on Tuesday human-to-human transmission of bird flu could not be ruled out in the deaths of six Indonesians.

The virus has not mutated to become more dangerous, the WHO emphasized."

Too early to panic.....

Good!!! Panic is only allowed after I'm out of the market. lol

 

[robo]

Stock Analysts Forecast Summer Markets

May 23, 2006 — After a run-up to near-historic highs early this month, stock markets have plunged during the past two weeks on worries about inflation and that the Federal Reserve will continue its practice of raising interest rates.

Some economic forecasters now fear the downturn could continue. Hopes for a consistent bull market have faded as the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted and the Nasdaq's composite index saw its gains for the year wiped out.

But other economists remain positive and have offered conflicting predictions, and the markets saw a small rebound on Tuesday.

So what's going on? ABC News spoke with three stock market analysts to get a gauge for where the markets are headed over the next three months.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1994632&page=1

 

[robo]

Bernanke: Comments a 'Lapse of Judgement'

By JEANNINE AVERSA AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON May 23, 2006 (AP)— Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday he suffered a "lapse of judgment" by talking to a CNBC reporter recently, a conversation that caused the stock market to tank when his comments were reported.

Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., asked Bernanke about the episode during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on financial literacy.

"Senator, that episode you refer to was a lapse of judgment on my part," Bernanke replied. "In the future my communications with the public and with the market will be entirely through regular and formal channels."

Bernanke took over the Fed job on Feb. 1. In a congressional appearance on April 27, he had raised the possibility of the Fed pausing its two-year, credit-tightening campaign. Stocks rallied that day.

But on May 1, CNBC reported that Bernanke had told a CNBC reporter that investors had misinterpreted his recent congressional remarks as an indication the Fed was nearly done raising rates. Stocks which had been up for most of the day slumped.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1994339



Monday, May 22
Posted 11 a.m. EDT
BEWARE INFLATION: Investors want to know what's happening with prices. Is inflation accelerating, or not? The answer affects you because higher inflation brings higher interest rates.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/mortgage_update.asp

 

[James48843]

It's a "suckers rally".

Lured me in this morning when I saw green in Europe. Moved out of "G:" and into stocks.

I think I just fell for the sucker's rally.

Darn. I figured I'd learn by now.

 

[tsptalk]

I think I just fell for the sucker's rally.

That remains to be seen. I think today's collapse put fear near a peak. The sucker rally is still to come.