Market Talk / March 18th - 24th

[FundSurfer]

There is a bunch of comparison of this drop to May. I've heard my office mates make similar noises and I consider them joe six-pack investors. I think that this may be one of those times where we compare something to the rear view mirror and by comparison we repeat the past.

 

[Spaf]

IMHO
The fundamentals have changed somewhat. The market is different then what it was a year ago. i.e., energy, rates, earnings, etc.

Where do I take my Stock Traders Almanac for a refund? Just kidding!.....

There is a bunch of comparison of this drop to May. I've heard my office mates make similar noises and I consider them joe six-pack investors. I think that this may be one of those times where we compare something to the rear view mirror and by comparison we repeat the past.

 

[Birchtree]

Can we do SPX of 1420 on the close? Why not?

 

[FundSurfer]

IMHO
The fundamentals have changed somewhat. The market is different then what it was a year ago. i.e., energy, rates, earnings, etc.

Where do I take my Stock Traders Almanac for a refund? Just kidding!.....

I've come to believe that when the herd gets spooked, they can stampede. Fundamentals don't mean much when the herd moves, just try to move with the herd. Once the herd settles down, then you can play with the short term cycles that the herd doesn't pay attention to. The herd is begining to settle, but they've still got their noses to the wind sniffing.

 

[weatherweenie]

Can we do SPX of 1420 on the close? Why not?

I'd rather we pace ourselves, and punch through 1420 tomorrow. No need to be greedy.

 

[Birchtree]

We had record high movement of money into mutuals during Jan. and Feb., that money is waiting for the fund manager to spend. Investors and managers must commit to buying stocks quickly after a major market bottom. The SPX fib retracement level is 1407. The .50 level is 1418 I believe.

 

[Birchtree]

The DJUA is at 490.16 - the magic number is 493.71. We may have a new all-time high tomorrow which provides life of at least three months going forward.

 

[SkiUtah]

3 months going forward... guess that would mean now would be the time to buy...or say bye....

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 20, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US socks advance off yesterdays rally.

Con-Yak...................................Two day Cartel meeting looms!

Jester-Yak................................I don't see any white caps!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1410.94 +8.88.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.07 -0.29 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............56.73 +0.14 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.8 ......3.5 ......1.5 .....1.0 ......0.3
Today........................................5 made IFT(s), 73% bearish, 28% bullish.
Yesterday...................................6 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.

 

[fabijo]

still rising!

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

March 20, 2007

Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. opined today that deal making is returning after a few weeks of absence signifying “a sign that confidence is returning to the marketplace”. Really? I’d say its more like investors took some kind of memory drain medication to make them forget the previous focus on and abhorrence of risk. We’re back to risk-taking as if the previous concerns were just so much hooey. So the previous method of isolating all problems, setting them aside as a nuisance and putting cash to work are quickly [in a New York minute] back in style. Why? Because there’s plenty of cash burning a hole in money managers’ pockets and it’s nearing the end of the quarter when bonuses are paid.

Here’s something of interest regarding the appetite for risk. According to the NYSE margin debt hit a record high in February at $295.87 billion versus January’s record of $285.60 billion. Now we don’t have March’s figures yet, but clearly the appetite for risk was pretty high then and it will be interesting to see how it changed if at all.

Another up day on light volume which is still goes in the books as an up day.



Now cynical theory goes like this. This ramp higher we’re seeing could be just some smart money pumping markets higher so they can suck you in and sell you stock.

But, it’s silly of me to think anything like that. The Fed will meet tomorrow and a lot of soothing “everything’s fine” talk will take place. No doubt that’s already been priced in. We have three more trading days in the week and another five before the end of the quarter. I wouldn’t be betting against window-dressing bulls flush with cash.

Have a pleasant evening.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[robo]

March 20th, 2007
This Correction
By Bill
This correction has not been handled well by me – at all. At just about every turn I’ve been either early or late. As a result, I’m doing some re-thinking about my trading style and activity level.

Currently I’ve only got the one short position on IVV with two entries scaled in, both early (of course!), and I’ve set a trailing stop of $0.88 from the last. This way, I don’t have to watch the Fed announcement, bated breath or otherwise, and a maximum acceptable (but rather unpalatable) risk amount is in place with room for it to work in my favor, should there be a “sell the news” after this low-volume run-up to (what I see as) resistance. I will give this one time to work … or not work …

$0.88 from the last equates to about 1423 on the S&P 500, which would make a pretty convincing case for a “W” bottom without a retest of the May 14 lows. It also gives about 8 3/4 points of “wiggle room” in the index to ride a downtrend - just in case that wasn’t the bottom. If it’s a solid “W” bottom, ouch for me. If it’s not, the ouch will be for those that bought the rally.

In the meantime, running scanners for potential longs!

http://billakanodoodahs.com/

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] 8:00am S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.2. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading well above fair value, fueled largely by a couple of strong earnings reports. A blowout third quarter from Oracle Corp (ORCL) and a 37% rise in Q1 profits from Adobe Systems (ADBE) last night have helped renew confidence in the tech sector's growth prospects.
Morgan Stanley (MS) handily topped expectations with record Q1 results, but FedEx (FDX) said Q3 earnings were negatively impacted by a slowing economic environment. Thus, the broader market looks to open on more of a flat note as investors also exhibit a sense of caution ahead of this afternoon's FOMC meeting. Even though it is a foregone conclusion that policy makers at 2:15 ET today will leave the overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.25% again, investors remain anxious to see if the Fed's directive implies there is a balanced risk between economic weakness and inflation

 

[mlk_man]

My feelings on the Fed meeting this afternoon are that Bernanke is still pissed at Greenspan for opening his trap. I believe that Bernanke will mention that subprime loans are only what, 12% of the over-all industry? And that inflation continues to be the bigger worry over recession but that things are leveling out and a soft landing continues. Current economic data will continue to dictate Fed policy.

You might actually see one vote go for a .25% decrease.

I think we might rally into tomorrow then see a pullback on Friday.

100% S for me today.

Now get outta here.....................

 

[mayday]

We are high in a channel that seems to be going sideways. The fed will make this market move which way depends on their tone. Inflation has always been their focus why change. My response is caution Dow between 12350 and 12000 breaking those resistance points will give us direction.

 

[James48843]

Let's just hypothetical this for a second:

What happens if the FED says that sub-prime issues are having more of an affect that previously thought, and that the housing market is pulling down the rest of the economy, and therefore they are changing their stance to be more concerned with a faltering economy than with inflation.
And, although they are not changing rates, they stand ready to drop rates if the economy shows evidence of faltering.

What kind of an effect would that have on stocks?

Your thoughts?

(Just hypothetical...)

 

[Pilgrim]

Quote of the day:

"Subprime is today's dot-com -- the pin that pricks a much-larger bubble," Morgan Stanley's Roach said.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A06DEB67-C7E5-484E-BF0D-D633DBB66099}

 

[mlk_man]

Let's just hypothetical this for a second:

What happens if the FED says that sub-prime issues are having more of an affect that previously thought, and that the housing market is pulling down the rest of the economy, and therefore they are changing their stance to be more concerned with a faltering economy than with inflation.
And, although they are not changing rates, they stand ready to drop rates if the economy shows evidence of faltering.

What kind of an effect would that have on stocks?

Your thoughts?

(Just hypothetical...)

Won't happen but I assume the market would rally short term then pull back in a few days.

 

[Aspiration]

James, I concur with Mlk_Man.

 

[mayday]

Let's just hypothetical this for a second:

What happens if the FED says that sub-prime issues are having more of an affect that previously thought, and that the housing market is pulling down the rest of the economy, and therefore they are changing their stance to be more concerned with a faltering economy than with inflation.
And, although they are not changing rates, they stand ready to drop rates if the economy shows evidence of faltering.

What kind of an effect would that have on stocks?

Your thoughts?

(Just hypothetical...)

Anytime the fed indicates that they may lower rates would drastically effect the market to the upside. But I don't see banks being baled out.