Market Talk - Jan. 11 - 17

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
January 11, 2009​

General Commentary:

This recession is going to be a slow-go. The question will be, when will businesses and consumers get out of the fox-hole. The market appears to be setting in a bottom, but it may be very slow and volatile back up.

The TSP has diminished to no more than a glorified savings account. The 2.5 trades per month have killed it. No long can members manage their funds, a lot going back to the G-Fund. TSP now, only has the advantage of the matching grants of 5%, because we can buy similiar index funds at any broker and trade as often as we like. If it wasen't for the index funds of the TSP, well....

I'm sure all the TSP members got the memo about how the financials could wreck the market last year! Na! TSP executives were too busy putting bars on traders. It was costing tooo much money! They also forgot to change retirement disbursements to the G-Fund; which is costing retirees dearly.

Two things we look for, for things to get better: the fundamentals and the technical analysis. Fundamentals, the economy is in the toilet, a bearish recession, and confidence is lacking. These have got to be repaired.

If'n your invested, the index funds have the best advantage (with least risk). The International funds should lag the US funds, and the small caps might not have the financial backing to be leaders. This leaves the S&P index (C-Fund) to pull forward, when all is said and done. Save any capital and wait for better days.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Pricing moved back to the moving averages, under the 13, but slightly over the 50.

The Bollinger Bands are at moderate volatility.

The P-SAR turned bearish.

Volume has been very light, not too many investors.

The S-STO has decreased from overbought to around neutral levels.

The MACD is positive, but somewhat flat.

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[McDuck]

DJI futures are down 80 points at 6:28 PM.

 

[McDuck]

from http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/markets/sunday_weekahead/index.htm

On the docket

• Monday:
  • Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) is expected to report a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share after the close Monday, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Reuters. The aluminum producer and Dow component earned 36 cents per share a year ago.
• Tuesday:
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the London School of Economics before the start of U.S. trading.
  • The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on usage of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds, a.k.a. the $700-billion bank bailout.
• Wednesday:
  • The nation's chain stores released dismal December sales figures last week. This week, the Commerce Department releases the composite number, and it's expected to be equally gloomy. Retail sales are expected to have fallen 1.1% after falling 1.8% in November. Sales, excluding volatile autos, are expected to have fallen 1.2% after falling 1.6% in November.
  • Also Wednesday, the government releases its November business inventories report. Inventories are expected to have fallen 0.5% after falling 0.6% in October.
  • And in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve releases its periodic "beige book" survey of the economy.
• Thursday:
  • While pricing pressure hasn't been much of an issue at this point in the recession, investors will still keep an eye on the week's inflation reports.
  • The Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to have fallen 1.9% in December after falling 2.2% in the previous month. Prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, or the Core PPI, are expected to have risen 0.1% after rising 0.1% in November.
  • The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing report, is also due Thursday. The January index is expected to have fallen to negative 35 from negative 32.9 in December.
  • Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) reports results before the start of trading and is expected to have lost 16 cents per share after losing $12.57 cents a year ago. Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reports results after the close. The chipmaker is expected to have earned 10 cents per share after earningsof 38 cents per share a year ago.
  • Hearings on the nominations of various members of Obama's cabinet are happening in Congress this week. On Thursday, the Senate Finance Committee holds the confirmation hearing for Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary.
• Friday:
  • The December Consumer Price index (CPI), a measure of consumer inflation, is expected to have fallen 1% after falling 1.7% in November. Core CPI is expected to have risen 0.1% following a flat reading in November.
  • Later in the morning, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer sentiment index for January. Sentiment is expected to have dipped fractionally to 60.0 from 60.1 in December.

 

[McDuck]

Australian share market down 2pc in early trade, loses $23bn
[SIZE=-1]NEWS.com.au, Australia - 22 minutes ago

[/SIZE]Stock Market Ready For The Breakdown...
[SIZE=-1]The Market Oracle, UK - 1 hour ago[/SIZE]

 

[Spaf]

Not that I like talk shows or the million and one excuses for why the market is in the toilet.

We lost something. The market has lost something. The TSP system has lost something. Who can you believe? Why is this Mr. Madoff not in jail? How many other Madoff's are there out there ready to swindle you out of your funds or change the rules without your say. Where is the evidence that trading was costing the TSP too much? And, not something that was "he-said, she-said."

The market will go up. But, first it has to repair itself. As I said, talk show host are not my favorate, but, one has a good theme for what should be done as a group; which has been the abdication of character, courage, and conscience.

"How Could You (They) Do That

I remember in grade school, the kid that would pick on smaller kids, mainly to prove that...he could just do it.

Well, I guess we stand around till someone gets the bullies off the playground.

 

[tsptalk]

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) is expected to report a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share after the close Monday, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Reuters. The aluminum producer and Dow component earned 36 cents per share a year ago.

After hours, Alcoa posts 0.28 per share loss.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Not that I like talk shows or the million and one excuses for why the market is in the toilet.

We lost something. The market has lost something. The TSP system has lost something. Who can you believe? Why is this Mr. Madoff not in jail? How many other Madoff's are there out there ready to swindle you out of your funds or change the rules without your say. Where is the evidence that trading was costing the TSP too much? And, not something that was "he-said, she-said."

The market will go up. But, first it has to repair itself. As I said, talk show host are not my favorate, but, one has a good theme for what should be done as a group; which has been the abdication of character, courage, and conscience.

"How Could You (They) Do That

I remember in grade school, the kid that would pick on smaller kids, mainly to prove that...he could just do it.

Well, I guess we stand around till someone gets the bullies off the playground.

maybe Obama will do it??

 

[Thunderhorse]

After hours, Alcoa posts 0.28 per share loss.

Not good.
Intel Thursday.:blink:

 

[Steadygain]

After hours, Alcoa posts 0.28 per share loss.

From 1/6 -
Alcoa Taking Decisive Action to Address Economic Downturn

• Smelting Output Reduced 750,000 mtpy, or 18% of Output
• Reducing Headcount by 13,500 (13% of Global Workforce) and an Additional 1,700 Contractor Positions
• Freezing Salaries and Hiring
• Selling Four Non-Core Downstream Businesses
• Reducing 2009 Capital Expenditures by 50%
• After-Tax Charges For 4Q 2008 Range from $900 to $950 Million, 80% Non-Cash

http://money.cnn.com/quote/news/press.html?mode=pressrelease&symb=AA

 

[McDuck]

Wall Street set for lower start

Jan 14: 5:30a
Futures decline ahead of key retail sales report.

 

[JOVARN]

My trading range should be hit today. If things stay weak by 1130 I will be a buyer
Now I have to hope the range didn't re-adjust to 7200 instead of 8200
Oh well, life goes on, wont be my first mistake

 

[JOVARN]

Good luck to all
40-S
30-C
30-I

Getting ready for my trip to Vegas

 

[McDuck]

APPLE CEO Steve Jobs will go on leave, citing 'more complex. health problems

 

[Show-me]

This should crush the market tomorrow.

 

[McDuck]

S&P500 futures currently at 832