Market Talk / February 11th - 17th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
February 11, 2007​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Boxes

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................There are seats on the sidelines. Old axiom: There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots!

Con-Yak....................................Socks slide on woes over Lube spike and Fed Yak.

Jester-Yak.................................Holding 4 Bears and a Witch for this week!...STA

Doodles:
Socks down for the week ending.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Stops......................................Alert (-1%)......Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..................................1436.02..........1422.02
.....$EMW...................................652.88X.........646.88
.....EFA.......................................74.56.............73.86

Dollar.......................................84.88 -0.07 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............59.89 +0.89 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Red.

Bunny Box.
Bunny Hoppers............................View attachment 1371

Courtesy of Rokid's Weekly Account Tally​

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.77..F=11.18..C=15.94..S=19.55..I=22.78
....(1 week past)........G=11.76..F=11.15..C=16.04..S=19.56..I=22.68
....(2 week past)........G=11.75..F=11.11..C=15.75..S=19.04..I=22.24
....(3 week past)........G=11.74..F=11.15..C=15.84..S=18.98..I=22.33
....(4 week past)........G=11.73..F=11.14..C=15.84..S=19.08..I=22.14

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

 

[airlift]

Hello Spaf!
Red Tea Leaves. I guess we are wondering how much the markets will drop! Good luck!

 

[Rod]

Hello Spaf!
Red Tea Leaves. I guess we are wondering how much the markets will drop! Good luck!

Lots of economic reports the week ahead along with Uncle Ben on Capitol Hill.

It'll be interesting!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/11/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

[airlift]

Spaf,
Excuse me for using your thread to ask this question, even though it has to do with trading the markets. Perhaps someone can help me. I need help in finding a discount brokerage that charges the least amount of money per trade. But I also need to ask if anyone here has experience in finding a brokerage house that also has funds which closely resemble the TSP funds. The idea is that I want to trade my IRA account in tandem with the way that I trade my TSP funds. The information I have read is that Scottrade charges approximately $7.00 dollars per trade, but perhaps there are better alternatives. Thanks in advance for your help.

 

[Spaf]

Spaf,
Excuse me for using your thread to ask this question, even though it has to do with trading the markets.........

Sponsor,
I use Scottrade (ST). They get awards every year. They are reputable, low cost, and have small branch offices nation wide. Some other brokers offer more bells and whistles, but they charge more too! All in what pleases you. I would suggest shopping around and stay away from the very cheap ones that you can't verify their reputation
There are hundreds if not thousands of ETFs, available for everything! I like IShares reporting system on the trade board. They have good updates! F-Fund = [AGG], S&P 500 = IShare [IVV], Small Caps Index = [IJR], and the I-Fund = [EFA]. No G-Fund but you will have a broker cash account, and ST pays a monthly credit somewhere near a savings account.
You need to know the trading rules and regulation ahead of time, i.e., whats a "free ride", "settled funds", "ask", "buy" and etc.
So take your time.
Regards

 

[robo]

Febuary 11th, 2007
Market Update: Friday Payday
By Dominick

Going into the week, members had the benefit of the 1458 target on the S&P futures that I mentioned in the Forum and reiterated several times at the start of the week. As you might recall, the February 4th update stated:


“I think this is the time the market makes or breaks. I do think the market has a great chance of turning before the target of SPX 1472 I have.

As it was difficult to share the opinion of a huge rally in the summer, its hard here to express a bit of danger as the markets advance each and every day.
I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn.

Do we have confirmation that this week was it. No way, but I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon.
That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches.”


Monday’s pop came on Tuesday’s opening, but I’m sure no one is upset over that extra hour. With the number 1458 deeply imprinted on our minds, it was an obvious trade into that level and, as the market stalled, we shorted as it hit 1457.75 and faded. We expected to cover at ES 1446/47 support and, sure enough, not only did we catch a quick 10 points to start the week, we bought the very bottom of that move.

Now, having the high on the futures come in 1 tick below an often repeated, totally expected target… maybe that’s a lucky guess. But getting a high risk/reward trade that captures both the top and bottom ticks in a choppy market? That’s what I call the benefit of membership.

From there a new high could have been reasonably expected, but the sloppy advance had me worried about a bear raid. I posted Friday morning that a fake out was possible, as the advance could be halted at a double top. As it played out, the day’s high came in 3 ticks below the previous top and then, like all good workers across the country, traders who were tuned in to the market got their payday.


The NYSE chart below also shows you how price has been “vibrating” around my target for 2 weeks now. Was it coincidence that the drop from the high found support exactly at the target and tried to advance again? I don’t think so! Now that we’ve sliced through it and closed below, do you think I’ll be watching to see if we get to the underside of that number next week? You bet!

http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=30515#30515

 

[airlift]

Spaf,
I appreciate you good advise and information. If anybody else can contribute to this idea, you are welcome. Thanks again!

Sponsor,
I use Scottrade (ST). They get awards every year. They are reputable, low cost, and have small branch offices nation wide. Some other brokers offer more bells and whistles, but they charge more too! All in what pleases you. I would suggest shopping around and stay away from the very cheap ones that you can't verify their reputation
There are hundreds if not thousands of ETFs, available for everything! I like IShares reporting system on the trade board. They have good updates! F-Fund = [AGG], S&P 500 = IShare [IVV], Small Caps Index = [IJR], and the I-Fund = [EFA]. No G-Fund but you will have a broker cash account, and ST pays a monthly credit somewhere near a savings account.
You need to know the trading rules and regulation ahead of time, i.e., whats a "free ride", "settled funds", "ask", "buy" and etc.
So take your time.
Regards

 

[robo]

Sunday, February 11, 2007
Weekly Outlook
Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch

There are some economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Monthly Budget Statement

Tues. - Trade Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, weekly retail sales

Wed. - EIA energy inventory data, MBA Mortgage Applications, Advance Retail Sales, Bernanke Report on Economy & Fed Policy, Business Inventories

Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Empire Manufacturing, Net Long-term TIC Flows, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Philly Fed, NAHB Housing Market Index, Bernanke Report on Economy & Fed Policy

Fri. - Producer Price Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Administaff Inc.(ASF), Blue Nile(NILE), Cephalon Inc.(CEPH), CNA Financial(CNA), Grubb & Ellis(GBE), Loews Corp.(LTR), Priceline.com(PCLN), Yum! Brands(YUM)

Tues. - Altera Corp.(ALTR), Applied Materials(AMAT), Ceridian Corp.(CEN), Coca-Cola Enterprises(CCE), Deere & Co.(DE), KB Home(KBH), Marsh & Mclennan(MMC), Metlife(MET), Nvidia Corp.(NVDA), Omnicom Group(OMC), Weight Watchers(WTW), XTO Energy(XTO), Wyndham Worldwide(WYN)

Wed. - Applebees Intl.(APPB), Baidu.com(BIDU), Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG), Coca-Cola(KO), Garmin Ltd(GRMN), Genzyme Corp.(GENZ), Guess? Inc.(GES), Jones Apparel Group(JNY), MGM Mirage(MGM), Network Appliance(NTAP), Nutri/System Inc.(NTRI), Office Depot(ODP), OSI Restaurant(OSI), PF Chang’s(PFCB), Progress Energy(PGN), Transocean(RIG)

Thur. - Agilent Technologies(A), Baker Hughes(BHI), Barnes Group(B), Biogen Idec(BIIB), California Pizza(CPKI), Career Education(CECO), Caremark Rx(CMX), Expedia Inc.(EXPE), Forest Oil(FST), Foundation Coal(FCL), General Motors(GM), Ingram Micro(IM), Reliance Steel(RS), Salesforce.com(CRM), Syneron Medical(ELOS), Terex Corp.(TEX), Titanium Metals(TIE)

Fri. - Alltel Corp.(AT), Business Objects(BOB), Campbell Soup(CPB), Cleveland-Cliffs(CL), Goodyear Tire(GT), JM Smucker(SJM), Sirius Satellite(SIRI), XM Satellite Radio(XMSR)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - UBS Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Housing Conference, Deutsche Bank Small-cap Growth Conference

Tue. - Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Internet/Software/Services Conference, Goldman Sachs Agricultural Biotech Forum, Deutsche Bank Small-cap Growth Conference, Citi Retail Field Trip and Conference

Wed. - Merrill Lynch Internet/Software/Services Conference, Citi Retail Field Trip & Conference, CSFB Digital Media/Memory/Storage Conference, Deutsche Bank Small-cap Growth Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference, Piper Jaffray Aircraft Summit, the Fed’s Poole speaking

Thur. - Merrill Lynch Internet/Software/Services Conference, Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference, CSFB Digital Media/Memory/Storage Conference, Piper Jaffray Aircraft Summit

Fri. - Piper Jaffray Aircraft Summit


BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as mostly positive economic data, mostly positive earnings reports, buyout speculation, lower energy prices and stable long-term rates offset profit-taking, shorting, more hawkish Fed commentary and sub-prime lending worries. My trading indicators are still giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Posted by: Gary / 10:38 AM

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

Spaf,
I appreciate you good advise and information. If anybody else can contribute to this idea, you are welcome. Thanks again!

Sponsor,

Just remember 80% of traders lose money. If your going to use your Brokerage account like your TSP account I think you will be fine. I trade ProShares, ProFunds, Rydex and iShares. I like the selection of International funds from iShares. I do receive trading recommendations from paid services, but don't always take them if I feel the risk is too high. I also have been trading with the Shark using his Free Stock of the week. This is when 7.00 trades from Scottrade works well. I might only buy 10k of that stock or 5k and a 14.00 round trip is still ok even if I only make 2 or 3 percent gain. I also really like their software. I bought oil too early this year and took some loses, but have gotten them back. I took that trade on my advice and that's why I'm taking them from the Shark now. Now, the Shark could also have losers, but his picks have beaten mine this year everytime so I'm sticking with him.

Services like the Shark offers, his free stock of the week picks. I have made money from taking those trades. You can make your own picks. However, I don't have the time or desire to research stocks. I use services that are reputable, have proven track records, and are priced fairly. You can't beat free stock of the week, and we know the Shark is the real deal! His recommendation on ATI was sweet.

Allegheny Technologies (ATI)
Long
11/27/06-12/01/06
Returned 6.39%


http://www.sharkinvesting.com/

I make up cost by trading the 2X funds. However, I don't trade the 2X everytime. After a 10% correction that would be a nice 2X long condition. Use care when shorting and remember this important rule.

""""" In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in a bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it. """""""'

AGAIN, IF YOUR GOING TO USE LIKE YOUR TSP ACCOUNT GO FOR IT.

IF YOUR GOING TO BE A DAY TRADER FORGET IT!!!!!!!!

IF YOUR GOING TO TRADE STOCKS LEARN ABOUT STOPS FIRRRRRRST!!!!!

I put the above comments in caps for a good reason. Take Spaf's advice and learn the rules and a good Trading Techniques.

I have two open trades for Monday. I'm going to PM you with some information I want you to read before you start trading with your retirement account.

Good trading/investing and all this is my personal opinion and many others might not have the same take. I'm not telling you how to invest your money. I'm telling you how I invest mine.

TIMING IS EVERTHING!!!!


http://www.proshares.com/?gclid=CP-P3eaDp4oCFRtGgQodxm1Zpg

http://www.profunds.com/profiles/inverse.asp

http://www.rydexfunds.com/ourproducts/fund_profiles.shtml

http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/equity.jhtml

Learn these Trading Techniques and remember that this is a investment/retirement account.


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2597

 

[J-Trader]

Spaf,
I appreciate you good advise and information. If anybody else can contribute to this idea, you are welcome. Thanks again!

I also use Scottrade. The website has lots of good info on it, although admittedly I use the user-friendly Yahoo! Finance to monitor and manage the market and stocks.

Probably the best thing that I like about ST is that there are no fees whatsoever beyond the 7 dollar trades, so a buy-and-holder like myself doesn't have to worry about paying inactivity fees and such.

Good luck!

 

[airlift]

Thanks Frorule!

 

[Birchtree]

Sharebuilder charges only $4.00 per buy and $11.95 to sell.

Robo, you are getting to know what makes me tick - right up my alley. "The percentage of U.S. mutual fund assets in domestic stocks is the lowest since at least 1984". "....the mother of all short covering rallies". It's not my fault that I'm contrarian - the 8 month fibonacci advance is the longest and strongest since the 2003 lows. I don't mind the lonely ride up. Snort.

 

[robo]

Go Birchtree! "To Da Moon"

 

[airlift]

Thanks Birch!

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Addendum
February 11, 2007​

Commentary: What top newsletters are saying for February​

http://tinyurl.com/239rbk​

 

[airlift]

Spaf,
Yesterday you told me that Small Caps Index = [IJR]. I am not familiar with this ETF. Do you know if it behaves in similar fashion as to EMW index, or to the RUT? Reason being that our S fund behaves more like a small to medium fund, and it closely mirrors the EMW. I would like to know if this is the closest alternative, or not? Thanks in advance.

 

[James48843]

You know what's interesting to me today.....

Although the markets are all down this morning, they are down a lot less than I was expecting them to be.

It could very well be that there is strength enough to stop the hemmoraging this morning.

Only time will tell.

 

[Birchtree]

Caution: Don't play on the tracks.

 

[fabijo]

sponsor -

I use TradeKing. It takes a while to be able to use your money - something like 10 days after opening the account - but once you can, they are great. If you have enough money, you can trade options also (at 65 cents per contract). All trades are $4.95 - that's buy/sell market, limit, and stop orders. They also allow you to set rules for the stock while you are purchasing them. Say, buying this stock will trigger another event that lets you sell it if it reaches a certain price.

Another broker that I would love to go with is [url="http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php]Interactive Brokers[/url]. They are cheap, but you need to be active and have a pretty big amount to start. They let you trade on nearly every stock/bond/options/forex/etc. exchange you can think of. Check out their crazy list here: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/products.php?ib_entity=llc

They'll let you trade in exchanges in Canada, Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, UK, China, Japan, Australia, Singapore, and South Korea.

 

[fabijo]

I just noticed this from Interactive Broker's website:

Because of SEC restrictions, US legal resident customers cannot trade US stock and equity index options outside of the US. In addition, the CFTC must explicitly approve any non-US futures or options on futures contract for trading by US resident customers. The following futures and options on futures contracts have been approved by the CFTC for US resident trading

The list of available foreign futures contracts is here:
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/eligibleProducts.php?ib_entity=llc