Market Talk / Dec. 30 - Jan. 5

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
December 30, 2007​

General Commentary:

Stocks were generally ok until Thursday. A drop over 20 points in the S&P is painful!

Last Friday left us with a Doji candlestick of indecision. The charts show us midway in the Bollinger bands along with the 13 and 50 day moving averages. The slow stochastics was doing good until it hit the Thursday pothole (worries about the economy and the assassination in Pakistan). Now, it's a bit bearish with %K below %D.


Economics / Fundamentals:

Economic indicators are running about 5 - 2 (See CNNMoney link). Crude was up $2.69 last week, closing at $96.00.

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

The S&P was down 5.97 points for the week.

We did set some stops, but they got broken at Alert: 1,500 and Trail: 1,485, about 17 days ago. Hopefully they can be reset.

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Me and TSP

My allocations can be found in the Auto Tracker, about 40% cash, 10% bonds, and 50% stocks.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.27..F=11.90..C=16.67..S=19.87..I=24.77
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Have a good week!​

And, be careful out there!​

 

[hessian]

Hi Spaf,
My theory was that Friday was a "technicals" day. Basically, a 1-day, fill-some-gaps that needed filled day (for example, the Russell 2K, NASDAQ Composite, etc.)
PLUS, as I've read, a day for last minute year-end tax selling purposes.

With that behind us now, I'm hoping for renewed seasonality, a re-freshed "Santa rallly" that will carry us BIG GREEN" into the days immediately ahead - Wed, Thurs, & Friday. (I'm likely bail to G then).

I'm alot in "I" so I'm hoping for the Dollar freefall (Fri. it broke its 50d EMA - but it didn't confirm). I will be watching all very closely - ready to adjust my allocation when the Dollar's strength returns, which I do eventually expect.

What do you think?
I am hoping this holds at least thru this week.
VR

 

[Spaf]

hessen,

The best 6 months for stocks runs from Nov.1 thru April 30.

On Monday (Dec. 31) breadth was poor, sectors were poor, volume was low and we had 3 days of selling.

We should see some upside improvements.

However, be prepared for a market that struggles with choppy action.

My plan is to be diversified, and being conservative in stocks, at the same time protecting capital.

Hi Spaf,
............ I'm hoping for renewed seasonality, a re-freshed "Santa rallly" that will carry us BIG GREEN" into the days immediately ahead - Wed, Thurs, & Friday. (I'm likely bail to G then). .............

What do you think?
I am hoping this holds at least thru this week.
VR

 

[JOVARN]

Not looking good in West Palm Beach.
Call me a coward, I bailed out Tue for the opening on Wed and ran to G, call it capital perseveration.
This time last year my union office was bogged down by employees wanting to file grievances regarding mandatory OT; this year they are fighting for the OT.
The majority of my co-workers are working at private hospitals for extra cash.
No new cars, no new Boats, and multiple inquiries regarding borrowing from their TSP accounts, it’s scary.
Almost everyone I know has a 2nd on their home and credit cards are maxed out.
I just spent time in Cape Coral FL and on one street it looked like the entire block was for sale and many were not new homes. Unemployment is rampant. My nieces placed a help wanted add for her company, 3 hours after the add ran, they took the phones off the hook.
I hope the Chinese consumers are in the buying mood because I don’t see many Americans digging into their pockets.
See you all at 1190
Good luck

 

[Warrenlm]

This is especially grim given its first hand, on the ground, nature. Stock Timing today is predicting a dramatic move in the market shortly and it's hard to see that as an up movement.

 

[vectorman]

This is especially grim given its first hand, on the ground, nature. Stock Timing today is predicting a dramatic move in the market shortly and it's hard to see that as an up movement.

http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[hessian]

Vectorman,
WOW! (sorry, but ts the best word I can think of - in reading your link.

From what I could gather, I take it to suggest a break, downward, is perhaps the most likely (not that it necesarily couldn't go the other way).
I read the Transportation Index as almost already having made its move, to the downside.
- Being new, not as technical, I need to ask - is this what you are seeing too??
VR

 

[Birchtree]

"Wipe Out" - nah, get serious there is no reason for a smash just because there is weakness in home prices, a huge inventory of unsold homes, a recent tightening in the mortgage market, and a virtual elimination of the subprime market - we could actually be at a bottom ready for the next recovery.

 

[clester]

A guy named Darda was on "Fast money" and says :

This was totally different in 2000, when bonds were cheap to stocks. Thus, if we are in a recession, it appears investors have priced it into the market, he concludes.My best trade is long stocks and short bonds, he says.

 

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Daily Edition
January 04, 2008​

Commentary:

The S&P [$SPX] appears to be some what range bound or stuck in a trading range.

Oh Gads!

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Have a good day! And, be careful out there!​

:embarrest:​

 

[Warrenlm]

The jobs report is very negative this morning. Only 18,000 new jobs and unemployment up further than expected. So, which way will that take the market. I think down, despite the pressure on the fed to drop the full 0.5%

 

[Oldcoin]

Looks like the gap set around 12/27 was filled.

 

[dickster]

The dow and S&P are already solidly on the downturn, is this a buying opportunity or just part of a downward trend?

 

[clester]

We're bound to get a bounce soon. We are way oversold. Are we in a Bear market? It's looking like it. But, sometimes when things look the worst, it's time to buy.

 

[Oldcoin]

Looks like the gap set around 12/27 was filled.

My bad, that should be the gap on 11/27.

 

[tsptalk]

We're bound to get a bounce soon. We are way oversold. Are we in a Bear market? It's looking like it. But, sometimes when things look the worst, it's time to buy.

Exactly, active accounts would be looking to buy today or Monday with the idea of selling any rally. Less active accounts may just want to wait it out knowing we are in a downtrend now.

RevShark talks a lot about whether you should be reactionary or anticipatory. The active guy above is being anticipatory and there is more risk in that, but it could be more rewarding if correct. The inactive reactionary guy waits for the technical picture to improve before taking on risk.

 

[tsptalk]

My bad, that should be the gap on 11/27.

Yup, all gaps are filled now. The market is so very anal-retentive. It's also why I watch gaps so closely. It's one of the best indicators of where the market "has" to go. They are like magnets.

 

[The_Technician]

Exactly, active accounts would be looking to buy today or Monday with the idea of selling any rally. Less active accounts may just want to wait it out knowing we are in a downtrend now.

RevShark talks a lot about whether you should be reactionary or anticipatory. The active guy above is being anticipatory and there is more risk in that, but it could be more rewarding if correct. The inactive reactionary guy waits for the technical picture to improve before taking on risk.

U know Tom, I've been contemplating what benefit it would be to get in stocks at the moment vs staying in the G or F....right at the moment its hard to justify with the F returning so much....

Back in the last turn down in 2000 or so, I think the F returned somewhere around 10% or so for the year.

 

[tsptalk]

U know Tom, I've been contemplating what benefit it would be to get in stocks at the moment vs staying in the G or F....right at the moment its hard to justify with the F returning so much....

Back in the last turn down in 2000 or so, I think the F returned somewhere around 10% or so for the year.

The benefit would be to try to catch a nice little oversold rally, but yes, staying in G or F until we see a better technical picture is not a bad way to go.

I wouldn't compare this to 2000 however. Stocks were incredibly over valued back then. The economy is weakening but stock prices are still very reasonable.

 

[lochaven]

Yup, all gaps are filled now. The market is so very anal-retentive. It's also why I watch gaps so closely. It's one of the best indicators of where the market "has" to go. They are like magnets.

For us newbies, your post is one of those that helps us understand and learn. Thanks