Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
December 10, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Crude retreated, down 2% for the week. Economics holding.

Con-Yak...................................The weekly economic calendar is kind of full. Need to watch out for icebergs!

Jester-Yak................................Keep Socks on a short leash!...

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.15 up +0.79 for the week.
Stops.......................................Alert: 72.63. Trail: 71.93
MACD hist.................................+0.109, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 66.67 [30] decreasing!

$USD........................................83.32 up +0.85 for the week.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.03, dn -1.40 for the week...http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Mon. Dec. 11 Bulls.......................Inventories.//Dow up 4 of last 5.
Tue. Dec. 12 Bears......................FOMC Meeting. [At 5.25%, any hint of a cut?]
Wed. Dec. 13 Bulls......................Sales & Lube supplies.//Dow up 19 of last 20.
Thu. Dec. 14 Bears......................Unemployment.
Fri. Dec. 15 Bulls..Triple Witching...CPI & IP.//Dow up 18 of last 25.

[Dow data courtesy of Stock Traders Almanac]​

Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G:31, F=19, C=06, S=19, I=31
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 56%...Bearish 44%. Added a few more bulls!

TSP (week ending)......G=11.68..F=11.17..C=15.58..S=18.91..I=21.71
....(1 week past)........G-11.67..F=11.23..C=15.43..S=18.70..I=21.54
....(2 week past)........G=11.66..F=11.15..C=15.47..S=18.78..I=21.31
....(3 week past)........G=11.65..F=11.12..C=15.46..S=18.60..I=21.11
....(4 week past)........G=11.64..F=11.11..C=15.23..S=18.24..I=21.17
....(12-30-2005).........G=11.16..F=10.67..C=13.55..S=16.27..I=17.59

Le Chart​

[Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com]​

 

[Fivetears]

Stocks to heed Fed and CPI
NEW YORK - U.S. stocks may stall at the start of this week as investors wait for word from the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes on Tuesday, is expected to keep the fed funds rate steady at 5.25 percent. Investors will comb through the FOMC's statement for some insight into how the U.S. central bank sees the economy. The caution may linger until Wall Street sees Friday's data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index for November. Investors will be anxious to learn whether inflation was mild enough to keep Americans spending -- and driving U.S. economic growth. Investors are still digesting a month's worth of confusing economic data. Although stocks reversed two weeks of poor performance and finished this week with gains, they are still on shaky ground, analysts said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061210/bs_nm/column_stocks_outlook_dc_1

 

[Birchtree]

The Dow Composite Index, which includes the 30 Industrials, 20 TGransports, and 15 Utilities, has now broken to the upside from a symmetrical triangle. The measuring objective of this breakout is the 4150 level which would take out the all-time high seen last May at 4018. We closed out Friday (12/8) at 4172. Sleigh Bells Ringing.

 

[Oldcoin]

Friday Dec 15th is the December Triple Witching. The STA has the DOW up 18 of the last 25 times.

Triple Witching:

An event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year: the third Friday of March, June, September and December.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5.

 

[Birchtree]

The A/D line looks good today at 1900/1300. Figgy Pudding.

 

[SkiUtah]

http://community.webshots.com/inlin....webshots.com/photo/2027883660026810403zKRvIewriteFlashImage('flash-image', 800, 600, imgWidth, imgHeight, 'http://image10.webshots.com/11/8/83/66/2027883660026810403zKRvIe_ph.jpg', linkTo)





Didn't know what figgy pudding was....

 

[SkiUtah]

Don't you just love consolidation days in the green....

 

[Birchtree]

I sure do, the A/D line now is 1981/1259.

Figgy Pudding is from a Christmas song.

 

[SkiUtah]

Figgy pudding is also a neat looking thing to eat.

http://home-and-garden.webshots.com/photo/2027883660026810403zKRvIe

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 11, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube down, socks up!

Con-Yak...................................Still in the ice flow!

Jester-Yak................................FOMC iceberg dead ahead!

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.45 up +0.30.
Stops.......................................Alert: 72.75. Trail: 72.05
MACD hist.................................+0.094, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 68.73 [30] increasing

$USD........................................83.20 dn -0.12

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.22, dn -0.81
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=19, F=25, C=04, S=17, I=35
Leaders Risk................................Bullish: 56%...Bearish 44%.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Still shaping up to be relatively flat start for the cash market as futures continue to fluctuate around fair value. Just hitting the wires, the Commerce Dept. reports that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in October to $58.9 bln (consensus -$63 bln). Reaction in both stocks and bonds, however, has so far been muted as investors wait to see what today's Fed policy statement implies about further rate hikes.

 

[Birchtree]

Well today is the nesting of the 20 week cycle, so this downside pressure is no surprise. I am surprised that the improvement in the trade deficit is not helping the market any. Bring on the small price decay so we can move forward.

 

[weatherweenie]

Lacker still wanted to raise rates

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2006/20061212/

BOOOOOORRRRRINGGGG! The measured bull move should continue after this expected release, but it really depends on how the market digests it, huh?

 

[Griffin]

Lacker still wanted to raise rates

Make's you realize just how far off the table a rate drop was. I don't think you will see a rate drop until Lacker agrees to a hold first. They added "substantial" to the housing market bust - that puts a lot of pressure on Lacker. Next time he won't vote to raise.

 

[fedgolfer]

... Grif, do you think the market/indices priced a rate reduction into the current market levels? I don't think so. But if it is, adios CSI.

 

[Birchtree]

Our friend Lacker has made his final vote - he's out of the next rotation for at least three years. He was just being consistent. We did have an 8.4% reduction in the trade deficit - which is the beginning of a trend. Let the dollar come down to 80. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is above +1127 so I'm not anticipating much in the way of a correction. We may actually rally before the close. Figgy Pudding for you too.

 

[James48843]

Hmmm...
reduction in trade deficit = price of oil fell a little.

housing down sharply.
(substaintial cooling was the word).

I would be more concerned about the bottom dropping out of the economy.

(DA BEARS!)

 

[Birchtree]

My impression of Griffin is changing - his avatar denotes a sense of humor. A second helping of figgy pudding for him.