Market Talk / April 8th - 14th

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070410/aftermarket_movers.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (AP) -- Alcoa Inc., the first Dow Jones Industrial Average component to report first-quarter results, rose in late trading Tuesday after posting a higher profit.
The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer's first-quarter profit rose 9 percent as favorable metal prices and strong sales lifted results.

Shares of the company gained 61 cents, or 2 percent, to $35.51 in aftermarket electronic trading, from their close at $34.90 on the New York Stock Exchange.
 
The futures are yawning over the report as Alcoa isn't normally a market mover. The next big event will be Wednesday's release of March's FOMC meeting minutes.
 
All of the TSPTalk folks diving to the Lilly Pad, what 60%?
Think of this being part of the sentiment survey, what would it mean? BULLISH, am I right?:D View attachment 1555
 
I'm not sure who is actually taking the sentiment survey each week. We've been getting about 400 responses out of the 3400 or so that it is emailed to. So I don't know if it's regular visitors (and message board members) or mainly people that are getting these survey's via email or just people that happen along to the home page to take it.

We might want to take a survey on the message board each week and see if it is a smart money indicator, as opposed to the contrarian indicator of the current survey.
 
I don't know about that or who is voting but it's doing really well lately. Have you seen it do this well in the past?:confused:
 
Those of the TSPers going to the G fund, are not a sufficiently numerous group to base a real contrarian decision on (unless other indicators are present). I would be careful, as Tom suggested in this morning commentary. On the contrary, I believe most leaders are on the right side of the trade. Time will tell, though!:)

nnuut said:
All of the TSPTalk folks diving to the Lilly Pad, what 60%?
Think of this being part of the sentiment survey, what would it mean? BULLISH, am I right?:D View attachment 1555
Click to expand...
 
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Still shaping up to be a relatively flat start for the cash market. While Alcoa's better-than-expected report is lifting this year's best performing Dow component to higher highs in pre-market action, the fact that Alcoa's net income only rose 9.0% merely speaks to the strong likelihood that Q1 will mark the end of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 over the last 14 quarters. Evidently the market is waiting to see more earnings results to get some validation behind last week's surprise run-up heading into earnings season.
 
Available for Sale to the General Public ....Reposessed Homes.....

I heard on the radio today of sales of reposessed homes available to the general public....only thing is ....it could be because we, the general public, are all buying gas with our available income and highly inflated commodities because of it......so we can't make any more financial commitments, therefore the general financial prowess of the general public isn't available to absorb this financial burden.........

I would suppose the banks and financial houses that loaned the money to these bad risks will have to pay the taxes on those properties and absorb the losses themselves......if they can afford it......it could break their financial houses to bankrupt status soon.....if it does, they can blame the oil monopoly here in the US.....is this another Standard Oil situation????

Duhhhhhh!!!:nuts:
 
Does anyone see a positivs stockmarket this week, or is this the beginning of an earlier downturn like the one we had in May of last year?
 
The bullish hidden agenda is that we don't want the public to be eligible to participate in this bull run. They made their choices a few years back. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gunshy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. You must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go.
 
I've been reading your posts. Very interesting. Perhaps Ferdinand is right at least until May (sell in May?). If this is so, the safest stock fund could be the C fund, because of advantages in exports to international U.S. companies. For this to happen, it would help if the FED stays on hold today?

Birchtree said:
The bullish hidden agenda is that we don't want the public to be eligible to participate in this bull run. They made their choices a few years back. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gunshy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. You must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go.
Click to expand...
 
Info to pass along FWIW.

The SPY's have now closed 8 consecutive days in a row with a positive gain. Since 2000 each time the SPY's have closed 7 or more consecutive days in a row with a positive gain this has been followed by a correction in 15 out of the 16 cases. The SPY's have dropped an average of $2.68 over the next 10 trading days which is equivalent to a 25 to 27 point drop in the S&P 500. As mentioned above today is the 8th consecutive day in a row the SPY's have closed with a positive gain. Thus based on this research we definitely should be on the lookout for a correction in the near term.

white
 
airlift said:
... If this is so, the safest stock fund could be the C fund, because of advantages in exports to international U.S. companies. For this to happen, it would help if the FED stays on hold today?
Click to expand...

The balance of trade is tilted very large in favor of our overseas competitors. Every day we read about manufacturers closing here and moving outside the U.S.


"I" fund is better for the future.
 
Thanks!

wht00ss said:
Info to pass along FWIW.

The SPY's have now closed 8 consecutive days in a row with a positive gain. Since 2000 each time the SPY's have closed 7 or more consecutive days in a row with a positive gain this has been followed by a correction in 15 out of the 16 cases. The SPY's have dropped an average of $2.68 over the next 10 trading days which is equivalent to a 25 to 27 point drop in the S&P 500. As mentioned above today is the 8th consecutive day in a row the SPY's have closed with a positive gain. Thus based on this research we definitely should be on the lookout for a correction in the near term.

white
Click to expand...
 
Airlift,

You just confirmed my tendentious mantra for the C fund. I've been studiously building my accumulated share base for the last three years in anticipation of the scenario we are about to enter. I certainly enjoy a weaker dollar - takes me way back to 1994-95. What a nice market run 1995 was. That year the C fund rallied up 37.5%. Snort.
 
"S' fund showing the nice bounce off the day's lows.

There is a heck of a lot of strength still in stocks.

I'm moving to the sidelines, but only to take a short breather.

Pigs get fat.

Hogs get slaughtered.

"...To the "G" fund..."
 
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