Market Talk / April 22nd - 28th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
April, 22, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................SPX is still in a bullish trend trading above the 13d and 50d MA.

Con-Yak....................................SPX is above the upper band, overextended and due to pause (again) or pullback. The stockastic is indicating a weak bearish signal with "K" under "D", and above 80 indicates overbought conditions. Upward momentum is not immediately sustainable.

Jester-Yak.................................Last week we had a pause and advance. Will we get a repeat? Volume has been picking up!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX...................................1470..............1456

Dollar.......................................81.69 -0.48 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............63.38 -0.25 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.88..F=11.34..C=16.51..S=20.19..I=24.24
....(1 week past)........G=11.87..F=11.28..C=16.16..S=20.00..I=23.93
....(2 week past)........G=11.86..F=11.31..C=16.06..S=19.82..I=23.61
....(3 week past)........G=11.85..F=11.31..C=15.78..S=19.51..I=23.13
....(4 week past)........G=11.84..F=11.32..C=15.96..S=19.67..I=23.24

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo.......................View attachment 1574
...............................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

The Barn Yard
Location....................................On a lilly pad. (100% G-Fund). Capital Preservation.

 

[OldFisherman]

Doodles, Yakendoodles = Yellow?????? This is very hard to follow?

 

[Birchtree]

It means caution - invest at your own risk going forward. I say have no fear.

"That's just the market doing what it's done ever since its doors opened - it'll get every bear to cover and stop shorting, while getting the late bulls long, as the train appears to be leaving. Does the next move become the capitulation stage or once again the talk of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd".

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7410.htm

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 23, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX Still holding bullish, trading above the 13d and 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX started a pause/pullback. Price is still high. Stochastic K under D = weak bearish, and overbought.

Jester-Yak................................Krude is getting kinda high with the election spiff in Nigeria.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1480.93 -3.42.........1470.............1456

Dollar........................................81.74 +0.06 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............65.89 +1.78 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................5.0 ......2.0 ......0.0 .....0.5 ......2.5
Today........................................2 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.
Friday........................................4 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. After taking a breather yesterday following the market's recent run-up, early indications suggest buying efforts will get back on track today. A Q1 earnings surprise from Texas Instruments (TXN) last night, along with reassuring guidance predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction, has helped renew optimism about the tech sector's growth prospects. AT&T (T) and DuPont (DD) becoming the latest Dow components to top Wall Street expectations are also contributing to the positive disposition.

 

[Oldcoin]

Here is a TA's take on the VIX.

Tuesday, April 24th. - Stock Trends, Charts, and Commentary
__________________________________________________________
Volatility, Fear, and Risk Levels ...

Some investors have not observed that the VIX (Volatility Index) is now higher than it was
after it gapped up on February 27th.'s large market drop.
That's very significant ... especially since the S&P has moved much higher than its peak level
in February.

The market breaking higher on the S&P with the VIX simultaneously high?
This is a market divergence worth paying attention to, especially today because of the
chart below.

This is a Point & Figure chart for the VIX and it is showing that yesterday's close was
right at it resistance line testing point.
Keep an eye on this level, because if the VIX breaks above this resistance, investors will
see an unexpected pull back. If it survives the test and moves lower, then that will
support more up action in the markets during this week.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Birchtree]

The A/D line is diverging today against price so we are having another internal pause to refresh. The DJUA is simply amazing with another new all-time high. I'd hate to slide down the other side of that particular graph but it is saying more bull rally to go forward at least another six months. Let'er rip.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 24, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX Still holding bullish, trading above the 13d and 50d MAremains bullish trading above the 13d MA, and the 13d MA remains above the 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX remains in a pause/pullback. Price is still high. Stochastic K under D = weak bearish, and above the value of 80, or overbought.

Jester-Yak................................Four more trading days left in April!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1480.41 -0.52.........1470.............1456

Dollar........................................81.52 -0.23 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............64.58 -1.60 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.0 ......1.0 ......1.0 .....0.7 ......4.3
Today........................................3 made IFT(s), 40% bearish, 60% bullish.
Yesterday...................................2 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] 08:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.3. Early indications are pointing to a higher open for stocks. The bulk of earnings reports again checking in better than expected, initiated by Amazon.com's (AMZN) blowout Q1 report and upbeat guidance last night, as well as some M&A activity, are contributing to the bullish disposition. An investment group led by the Royal Bank of Scotland has stepped up today with a $98 bln offer to acquire ABN Amro (ABN).
However, with the Dow just 46 points away from the 13,000 milestone, it doesn't look like the index's only component out with earnings today will be of much help. Boeing (BA) handily beat analysts' expectations but the stock is down 1.5% in pre-market action as its full-year guidance is being viewed as a bit conservative.

 

[weatherweenie]

8:33am ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.3. Durable Orders rose a stronger than expected 3.4% in March (consensus 2.5%), given a large jump in aircraft orders, while the February figure was upwardly revised to 2.4% from 1.7%. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding transportation, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, rose a healthy 4.7% following a cumulative 8.5% decline in January and February. Futures trade has strengthened following the data and now point to an even stronger start for the cash market. Bonds, though, have weakened, lifting the yield on the 10-year note (-8/32) to 4.65%.

 

[airlift]

Weatherweenie,
I am having some difficulties getting the usual Briefing.com market updates at the Yahoo financial section. I do click on refresh, but the problem persists -- no updates. Do you know if it's a general problem? I will appreciate your opinion.

 

[weatherweenie]

Weatherweenie,
I am having some difficulties getting the usual Briefing.com market updates at the Yahoo financial section. I do click on refresh, but the problem persists -- no updates. Do you know if it's a general problem? I will appreciate your opinion.

Me too re: updates from Yahoo! Seems that's been a problem, off/on, for some time now.

When this happens, I just go to the source, Briefing.com http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/StockMarketUpdate.htm

 

[weatherweenie]

9:00am ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.8. The stage remains set for stocks to open on a strong note as futures hold steady above fair value. With the market rightfully concerned about capital investment, which is expected to be a negative factor in Friday's advance read on Q1 GDP, and worries about the underlying pace of economic activity in general, investors continue to find some comfort in today's durable orders data.
Meanwhile, earnings continue to pour in better than analysts' lowered expectations, potentially arming the bulls with enough momentum to power the Dow past 13,000; but another housing update in the form of new home sales awaits investors at 10:00 ET.

 

[airlift]

Is it a pay site or do they give the info freely? Thank you!

 

[jayhawker]

DJI just passed 13000!

 

[Wolverine]

Yep, party at the Hamptons this weekend. Daffy will do his fly-by and then back to the pond for some R&R.

 

[weatherweenie]

Is it a pay site or do they give the info freely? Thank you!

They have free and pay products.

 

[Birchtree]

Waiting on the R2K to hit 831.44 for a new all-time high. If it doesn't that could be a harbinger of the wall.

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks continue to forge ahead as buyers remain in complete control of the action. Evidently, investors don't appear too concerned about what the Fed's Beige Book, which will be out momentarily, may or may not say about the economy.
The Beige Book is today's last scheduled economic report and will be used at the May 9 FOMC meeting to help policy makers formulate their views on business conditions compiled from the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.

 

[weatherweenie]

Talking heads on CNBC making beige book out to be somewhat of a non-factor. Did note that there was no wording about there being greater inflation concerns.

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks continue to forge ahead as buyers remain in complete control of the action. Evidently, investors don't appear too concerned about what the Fed's Beige Book, which will be out momentarily, may or may not say about the economy.
The Beige Book is today's last scheduled economic report and will be used at the May 9 FOMC meeting to help policy makers formulate their views on business conditions compiled from the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.