Market News

Goldman issues warning on how quickly market confidence has recovered from an August stocks slump

The speedy return of market confidence following a dramatic global sell-off in risky assets should be seen as a cause for concern, according to the head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Goldman’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann said investors could think about the early August stocks slump as something akin to “a warning shot.”

“What’s concerning now is how quickly the market has gone back to where we were before, and we can discuss that, but certainly that shows that we are sadly nearly back to the same problem we were at a month ago,” Mueller-Glissmann said

Goldman Sachs concerned by how quickly market confidence has recovered
 
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000
The DOL reported:
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 233,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
Link

Calculated Risk: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000

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The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis.
 
Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


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I have 2 offspring in the Houston area, I know this season they've had some pretty good storms with power outages, heck they still haven't cleaned up all the mess from the 2024 Houston derecho.

20240708-22.png
 
Just an FYI- Hurricane Beryl is now headed for the coast of Texas, including a dead aim at a lot of oil refinery and oil / chemical plants , including the Houston area.


You might want to gas up your car now, and put a can or two into full storage, as a bad hit could interrupt oil and gasoline for a time.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Jul 5 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May.

The unemployment unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: Jobs report June 2024:
 
The personal consumption expenditures price index increased just 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage point from the April level, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.
Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones estimates. May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.



 
Upcoming economic data / events this week:

Tuesday
Consumer Confidence data

Wednesday
New Home Sales data

Thursday
Q1 2024 Final GDP data

Friday
May PCE Inflation data
Fed Monetary Policy Report

This week there are 8 Fed speaker events scheduled.
 
The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
CPI, a broad inflation gauge that measures a basket of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, held flat on the month though it increased 3.3% from a year ago, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 
U.S. adds a much-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rate edges up to 4%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Jun 7 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in May, countering fears of a slowdown in the labor market and likely reducing the Federal Reserve’s impetus to lower interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 272,000 for the month, up from 165,000 in April and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 190,000.

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5%, down 0.2 percentage point. However, the survey of households used to compute the unemployment rate showed that the level of people who reported holding jobs fell by 408,000.

Job gains were concentrated in health care, government and leisure and hospitality, consistent with recent trends. The three sectors respectively added 68,000, 43,000 and 42,000 positions. The three sectors accounted for more than half the gains.

Read more: Jobs report May 2024: U.S. job gains totaled 272,000 in May
 
Thanks Joe!

[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]Inflation showed some signs of improvement in April, as policymakers grapple with whether their fight against abnormally high price growth is losing ground.

[/FONT]
[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]Data released Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.4 percent in April, compared with the year before. That’s down a bit from the 3.5 percent notched in March, and follows months of hotter-than-expected reports.

Prices rose 0.3 percent compared with the month before.



MORE, and comments by the FED :

[/FONT]
https://wapo.st/3WIW3no[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]

: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-fed/
[/FONT]

 
[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]Inflation showed some signs of improvement in April, as policymakers grapple with whether their fight against abnormally high price growth is losing ground.

[/FONT]
[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]Data released Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.4 percent in April, compared with the year before. That’s down a bit from the 3.5 percent notched in March, and follows months of hotter-than-expected reports.

Prices rose 0.3 percent compared with the month before.



MORE, and comments by the FED :

[/FONT]
https://wapo.st/3WIW3no[FONT=var(--wpds-fonts-body)]

: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-fed/
[/FONT]

 
Interesting.

I just got a note from Charles Schwab saying that the Trade Settlement process is changing. Used to be 3 days to settle. Now will become “next day “ soon.

Here is what they wrote:

“The trade settlement period will be shortened to one day beginning May 28, 2024.
Trades executed on or after May 28, 2024 will settle on the next business day (T+1) for most U.S. and Canadian securities traded on U.S. exchanges. Currently, the settlement period is two business days after the trade date (T+2).

New shortened settlement period reduces risk.


This is an industry-wide change for most security transactions, which includes stocks, bonds, municipal securities, exchange-traded products, unit investment trusts, certain mutual funds and limited partnerships that trade on an exchange. The T+1 settlement period may benefit investors like you by reducing credit and liquidity risks present between the trade date and the settlement date.
Your next steps.


There are no actions for you to take. The new T+1 settlement period will automatically be applied for any new trades executed on or after May 28, 2024. There will also be no change to the settlement period for options or futures as they already use the T+1 settlement period.




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December’s jobs report showed employers added 216,000 jobs for the month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Payroll growth showed a sizeable gain from November’s downwardly revised 173,000.


That is some pretty solid good news. I'm happy.

[h=1]U.S. payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, much better than expected[/h]Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Jan 5 2024 8:31 AM EST Updated 6 Min Ago


The U.S. labor market closed out 2023 in strong shape as the pace of hiring was even more powerful than expected, the Labor Department reported Friday.

December’s jobs report showed employers added 216,000 jobs for the month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Payroll growth showed a sizeable gain from November’s downwardly revised 173,000.

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Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to increase 170,000 and the unemployment rate to nudge higher to 3.8%.

The report, along with revisions to previous months’ counts, brought 2023 job gains to 2.7 million, or a monthly average of 225,000, down from 4.8 million, or 399,000 a month, in 2022.

Read more: Jobs report December 2023: Payrolls increased by 216,000 in December
 
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