LTJPFED's Account Talk

[LTJPFED]

Hi guys, this is my first post. I have been hesitant to post just because I don't want to come off sounding dumb or lacking knowledge. I think I got lucky back in Feb, around the 12th, and moved about 60-70% into G. I wanted to get some gains and really wasn't planning on sitting there but simply making a move to get those gains mainly from last year. Anyway later in Feb, before the big moves down, I was able to move a bit more into F and G. I had a move in March but that was moving the rest from F to G. So essentially I got lucky and missed getting crushed by staying in C/S. Now I've been getting the itch to move back to C/S. Looks like the day will start down, who knows where it will end up. Smart money usually is close to end of the day I think but it's only day 1 of a new quarter. A lot can happen this month, with the virus news leading the way. As Rod said be careful of the "Covid has hit it's peak" rally. Which honestly may not even happen this month. But I agree will happen before the true economic shock that will set in.

I guess I'm wondering would it be something to consider moving some over to C and S on a day like today and hope to catch a ride higher, with the potential of that peak rally maybe later this month or may even be in May/June. I can always add to the C/S if I don't move in all today. I do think there will be more downside so that's why I don't want to move all in. I am a ways off from retiring so this isn't going hurt me if I don't pick the right spots now. However if I can get in at these lower levels that would be better than waiting to get in another 15-20% higher from here.

Am I overthinking this or what?

 

[mdfiasco]

Am I overthinking this or what?

No, you're not. I jumped out in mid Feb like you and didn't lose a dime, I've actually gained since dumping 20% into C/S a few weeks ago on a nice down day. However that WILL change as the market drops. That 20% I put back in will lose value, but I'm stoked anyway: I bought it for ~$20 less per share than I had previously sold it at ~$47 so I'm golden. My strategy is to bite my way back in 10-20% at a time week to week as the market is falling/reaching bottom. Guessing bottom though, that's the thing nobody can do perfectly. You'll always wish you'd waited to buy lower, or kick yourself for buying higher. Murphys Law.

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome, LTJPFED! Thanks for joining us.

Look into "Dollar Cost Averaging." That basically what you're talking about and it's a very viable strategy. It would be nice if we had more than 2 IFT's per month, but if you're talking about moving in more slowly than that, over weeks and months, then it may be what you're after.

 

[LTJPFED]

Welcome, LTJPFED! Thanks for joining us.

Look into "Dollar Cost Averaging." That basically what you're talking about and it's a very viable strategy. It would be nice if we had more than 2 IFT's per month, but if you're talking about moving in more slowly than that, over weeks and months, then it may be what you're after.

Thank you. Good to be here. I've been hovering around for a while so been trying to learn some things. Definitely would love to have more than the 2 IFT's per month. That could help us out on occasions such as what has happened here the last handful of weeks. I will take a look at the Dollar Cost Averaging.

 

[Rod]

Re: Rod's Account Talk

I guess I'm wondering would it be something to consider moving some over to C and S on a day like today

We just don't know how today will unfold. It might close green. Any IFT lately has been a crapshoot.

Personally, I'm waiting for the 23 Mar lows to be tested. I do understand that everyone has their own risk tolerance. But, what I don't understand is this- why are folks so anxious to jump back into equities knowing (or, perhaps ignorant of) the economic shock that will rock the world in the coming weeks/months? Heck, I was warning folks about that when they were oblivious to the coronavirus during the rally in Jan & Feb. I was like Cramer on here, screaming, "They know nothing!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EklCI7D7Rns

Will there be rallies before the lows are tested? Yep. Just like last week's rally. Am I interested in catching them? Nope. I am in capital preservation mode. Just as I was during the Financial Crisis. My day will come. Until then I'll make my money with my TD account. No "IFT" limitations there! :fing02:

BTW, if by chance the 23 Mar lows are not tested, I will then take solace with the fact that I did not deviate from my game plan and give in to an emotional FOMO IFT.

God Bless :smile:

 

[mdfiasco]

Re: Rod's Account Talk

We just don't know how today will unfold. It might close green. Any IFT lately has been a crapshoot.

Personally, I'm waiting for the 23 Mar lows to be tested. I do understand that everyone has their own risk tolerance. But, what I don't understand is this- why are folks so anxious to jump back into equities knowing (or, perhaps ignorant of) the economic shock that will rock the world in the coming weeks/months? Heck, I was warning folks about that when they were oblivious to the coronavirus during the rally in Jan & Feb. I was like Cramer on here, screaming, "They know nothing!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EklCI7D7Rns

Will there be rallies before the lows are tested? Yep. Just like last week's rally. Am I interested in catching them? Nope. I am in capital preservation mode. Just as I was during the Financial Crisis. My day will come. Until then I'll make my money with my TD account. No "IFT" limitations there! :fing02:

BTW, if by chance the 23 Mar lows are not tested, I will then take solace with the fact that I did not deviate from my game plan and give in to an emotional FOMO IFT.

God Bless :smile:

Excellent point. I'm wondering if the current market is reflecting the realization of what is to come rather than current events. I'm anxious for deals, but willing to sit out...I'll be watching at 1155 today for sure to maybe jump another 10% in.

 

[Rod]

Re: Rod's Account Talk

Excellent point. I'm wondering if the current market is reflecting the realization of what is to come rather than current events. I'm anxious for deals, but willing to sit out...I'll be watching at 1155 today for sure to maybe jump another 10% in.

I think for the most part, it is reacting day-by-day to the news of the day. What I don't know is if any of those mostly poor Q1 reports have already been priced in. I guess we will see as they are released.

To clarify what I wrote in my earlier post (sort of in jest with my Cramer comment and video )- It is very difficult to time the rallies that will surely occur in the near future. And I don't knock anyone who tries. What I do caution are those who plan to IFT anytime soon for the long term, with no intention to quickly be in/out. That is because I believe they can get even lower prices if/when the 23 Mar lows are tested. But, of course, everyone has their own risk tolerance and time horizon. There isn't anything wrong with nibbling in. Just remain very careful as to not take too big of a bite.

 

[mdfiasco]

Re: Rod's Account Talk

Absolutely, I agree with you completely. I'm okay biting back in 10-20% at a time but made no moves today. Recent highs were, IMO, a dead cat bounce. As things are going socially, I see lower lows coming.

 

[ravensfan]

LTJPFED,

First off, let me welcome you to the forum. As you can see by the responses, there are a lot of smart folks here at TSPTalk. Learn all you can here and no I don't think you are overthinking it.

 

[nasa1974]

LTJPFED,

Welcome aboard.

 

[Whipsaw]

LTJPFED, Welcome! Glad to see more folks posting in the forum. Check out what I wrote in Flalaw97's feed. :cheesy:

 

[LTJPFED]

Thank you all for the welcome. I definitely know there are some smart people here so I continue to look forward to tips, news, advice, etc. Of course we all ultimately have to make our own decisions so it's a matter of applying the information to your particular situation and time horizon. It's nice to bounce things off the wall so to speak here and have others keep you a little more focused and grounded. None of us like making rash decisions that could impact us in a negative way.

I did not make an IFT today. Not only because I was busy but just simply because I think there will be other opportunities at a later date.

 

[rangerray]

In other words, if you think buying into the market now is a good idea or is a terrible idea, you are exactly right.

 

[Rod]

In other words, if you think buying into the market now is a good idea or is a terrible idea, you are exactly right.

And if the past few weeks of roller coaster action is any indicator, Mr. Market will be up tomorrow. :439: But, I'm not taking the bait. :blackeye:

 

[LTJPFED]

I realize this morning I know very little when it comes to this market stuff. Thought I knew more. My FOMO is definitely eating at me. Missed the bottom and now missing the up up and away. A lot of the news hasn't been good, jobless claims, layoffs, deaths from the virus, companies failing or having serious financial problems, hell I have friends laid off that can't get unemployement, yet the market just keeps going up. I know it can be forward looking but this is a bit ridiculous. Money being tossed at the markets and "help" to some of these businesses. I have listened to the talking heads on TV and reading a few articles. Been looking at different charts and trying to understand which direction we may go each day but I think all this is making me more confused. Everyone is saying we will re-test the lows. I know the timing of these processes do not happen overnight and sometimes it takes months for things to shake out. But very frustrating to be on the sidelines trying to get in on a down day when it keeps going up.

 

[rangerray]

Yea, I'm questioning whether I'll be sitting on the sidelines all of next week too waiting on that retest of the March lows while the S Fund is going up, up, up! This is maddening.

 

[Rod]

Do what you think is best for your own risk tolerance and retirement goals. But, do keep that FOMO in check. Do not act upon emotion, or you will get burned.

 

[Whipsaw]

Then, of course, is capitulation and the almost guaranteed change in direction!

 

[rangerray]

It's most definitely an emotional day for me, but I have comfort in knowing that I have preserved capital through this whole time. It's emotional for me because, and I don't wish the worst for anybody, so please don't misinterpret what I'm saying, I've been looking for an opportunity like this since 2018 in order to boost my TSP one good time before I retire in 2021. It feels like I'm missing it by being to cautious. Of course, this is nothing new to most that would happen upon my words. The struggle is REAL

 

[Whipsaw]

Check out the video's being posted, the 'wisdom investor' and another I saw yesterday are both talking about further downside.