LOOMING DOLLAR CRISIS

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MarketTimer wrote:
Rolled my TSP into a Traditional IRA on the third of January 2005.

Did not contribute. Started the year around $380K and cashed out at $424K and change.

I have been calling for this for seven months

HEY GANG who has been saying that for six months...

do not pat me on the back to much. :)

MT
In other words, your return last year was 11.6%...slightly better than the C fund but far less than the S fund (18%) or the I fund (20%). IMHO, sounds like people who listened to you last yeargot small changed.
 
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MarketTimer wrote:
Mr Bucks...this time the falling U.S. dollar is not going to help the I fund....this is a repeat of the year 2000...HEY GANG who has been saying that for six months...

do not pat me on the back to much. :)
MT, I have no intention of patting you. Your record isn't as sterling as your talk.

The dollar is currently in a bullish trend. It will likely break out to the upside after the State of the Union (which I've been saying now for several weeks). However, I don't see alot of staying power for the reasons expressed above, which all boils down to the US trade deficit and the economy.

So, I agree that the dollar will return to falling. However, I can't fathom why MT thinks the I fund won't benefit from this. The only reason that I can see that the I fund would fail to benefit would be if we were back ina worldwide recession (which is always possible, of course.) :)
 
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MarketTimer wrote:
1- do not pat me on the back to much. :)
2 - Rolled my TSP into a Traditional IRA on the third of January 2005.
1- take some Anger Management classes, get the chip off your shoulder. You YELL at the readers alot, reference to milk wasirrelevant.

2 -is this what you meant when you posted invested `on the other side' ?? Are you telling the rest of us to get out of TSP and put our contributions into your favorite funds?? So if you no longer have money in TSP, why are you here? If you truly felt you are to save people in TSP then you would be of a kinder, gentler persuasion. I haven't seen any new information, just the `I told you back whenever....'

3. don't use psych techniques - keep to the subject, answer appropriately, or claim the 5th.
 
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grandma wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
1- do not pat me on the back to much. :)
2 - Rolled my TSP into a Traditional IRA on the third of January 2005.
1- take some Anger Management classes, get the chip off your shoulder. You YELL at the readers alot, reference to milk wasirrelevant.

2 -is this what you meant when you posted invested `on the other side' ?? Are you telling the rest of us to get out of TSP and put our contributions into your favorite funds?? So if you no longer have money in TSP, why are you here? If you truly felt you are to save people in TSP then you would be of a kinder, gentler persuasion. I haven't seen any new information, just the `I told you back whenever....'

3. don't use psych techniques - keep to the subject, answer appropriately, or claim the 5th.
 
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Wonder Woman wrote:
grandma wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
1- do not pat me on the back to much. :)
2 - Rolled my TSP into a Traditional IRA on the third of January 2005.
1- take some Anger Management classes, get the chip off your shoulder. You YELL at the readers alot, reference to milk wasirrelevant.

2 -is this what you meant when you posted invested `on the other side' ?? Are you telling the rest of us to get out of TSP and put our contributions into your favorite funds?? So if you no longer have money in TSP, why are you here? If you truly felt you are to save people in TSP then you would be of a kinder, gentler persuasion. I haven't seen any new information, just the `I told you back whenever....'

3. don't use psych techniques - keep to the subject, answer appropriately, or claim the 5th.
good 2 see u posting again WW!!!:)
 
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saraho wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
Mr Bucks...this time the falling U.S. dollar is not going to help the I fund....this is a repeat of the year 2000...HEY GANG who has been saying that for six months...

do not pat me on the back to much. :)
MT, I have no intention of patting you. Your record isn't as sterling as your talk.

The dollar is currently in a bullish trend. It will likely break out to the upside after the State of the Union (which I've been saying now for several weeks). However, I don't see alot of staying power for the reasons expressed above, which all boils down to the US trade deficit and the economy.

So, I agree that the dollar will return to falling. However, I can't fathom why MT thinks the I fund won't benefit from this. The only reason that I can see that the I fund would fail to benefit would be if we were back ina worldwide recession (which is always possible, of course.) :)
The problem with the I fund is the overweighting in Japan and the exclusion of China...Japan has been in a bear market since the 80s. There economy is so bad they had all their money markets accounts lose the 1.00 a share balance...right now their banks do not pay interest...would love to see the I fund cut Japan weighting down and add China...if you research the Japan's recession...the U.S. upcoming recession looks quite similiar.

MT
 
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Dollar weakens on Taylor before G-7
By Abby Deveney, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:10 AM ET Feb. 4, 2005


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar weakened against the yen after John Taylor, U.S. Treasury under secretary, reiterated that the U.S. wants China to prepare for a more flexible currency regime.

The dollar weakened to 103.90 yen from 104.20 yen after the comments, which were reported by Dow Jones and Reuters news agencies.

Separately, the British pound saw some strength, trading at $1.8845, after Taylor made clear the U.S. wasn't in line with the British proposal on debt relief plans for developing nations

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said China is preparing for a flexible currency and wants a flexible yuan as soon as possible, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

He said not only does the IFF not work for the U.S., but "we don't need the IFF," according to Reuters.

Taylor was referring to U.K. Chancellor Gordon Brown's idea for a new International Financing Facility to write off the debt of poorer countries. Taylor said the U.S. favors 100 percent debt relief, Dow Jones reported.

The officials are in London for a meeting of G-7 central bankers and finance ministers, which officially begins later Friday.
 
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The Group of Seven wealthy nations pledged...

By Sumeet Desai and Stella Dawson
Reuters
Saturday, February 5, 2005

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7547048

LONDON -- The Group of Seven wealthy nations pledged to
increase Third World debt relief on Saturday but a deal
struck after major disagreements fell short of proposals
floated by British finance minister Gordon Brown.

"We are willing to provide as much as 100 percent debt relief
on all multi-lateral debt for individual HIPC countries,"
Brown told a news conference, referring to dozens of Highly Indebted Poor Countries, most of them in Africa.

"It is the rich countries hearing the voices of thepoor...showing that no injustice can last forever," he
said.

Brown, who chaired the G7 talks, had pushed for a complete
write-off of African debt and a doubling of aid to $100
billion a year but the latter proposal ran into U.S.
opposition and there was no agreement on it.

Sub-Saharan Africa owes around $70 billion to multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and International Monetary
Fund and Brown said these public agencies would now have
to come up with plans on how to deliver on the debt relief pledge.

Washington had also objected to his proposal to use IMF
gold reserves to fund the debt writeoff and to a new
financing mechanism that would double aid. A G7 communique
said the IMF would produce ideas on this front by April.

G7 nations are under intense pressure to deliver on
promises to rid Africa of poverty by 2015, the so-called Millennium Development Goals.

"We will make particular efforts in the case of Africa,
which on current rates of progress will not meet any of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015," the communique said.

Brown had wanted approval for his International Finance
Facility (IFF) scheme to double aid to Africa to $100 billion a year but got no U.S. backing and others were cautious too.

The compromise deal followed an emotional appeal from
South Africa's Nelson Mandela in London, where he equated
the fight against poverty to the struggle against apartheid.

"Do not delay while poor people continue to suffer," the
86-year-old former political prisoner said, demanding a full debt write-off and $50 billion extra a year as Brown proposed.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said he disagreed
with the Brown plan, under which rich countries would provide guarantees to raise money in the capital markets and use gold reserves to fund a debt writeoff.

In the wake of the U.S. opposition, Italy and Germany
pushed for something less ambitious but backed the principle.

The G7 comprises the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada.

The bulk of the meeting was devoted to the Third World but
the ministers also discussed ways of reducing volatility in the oil market after prices hit record highs last October.

They also discussed currency management and economic risks
and did not stray from a year-old policy statement which
called for less volatile currency markets and greater exchange rate flexibility.

The latter point is aimed mainly at China, which sent its finance minister and central bank officials to meet G7
members.

"We are determined to move toward a flexible exchange rate,
but no timetable," Chinese central bank deputy governor Li
Ruogu told reporters after breakfast talks.

Beijing says it is not going to rush into altering its yuan
peg to the dollar, which many say keeps the yuan artificially low and makes life unfairly difficult for other trading nations.

"We discussed the issue of exchange rate flexibility with China," Brown said. "We are all interested in the role China is playing in the global economy."
 
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Could this be a little dig from China..!!!

Appears if they are going to play ball it will be on their terms.................

China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan,
"If we had a very big current account imbalance, there may be pressure, but China only has a small current account surplus ... so the pressure is not great. But of course with some countries the imbalance is large," Zhou said..


G7 fail to agree on debt plan
Reiterate concern on forex; China doesn't revalue yuan
By Steve Goldstein & Aude Lagorce, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:47 PM ET Feb. 5, 2005

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Group of Seven finance ministers and top central bankers of the world's leading industrialized countries on Saturday failed to come to a consensus on debt relief for the world's poorest countries and did not alter their year-long stance toward the foreign-exchange market.

In addition, hopes that China would be pressured into revaluing its currency, the yuan, didn't materialize.

In its communiqué, the G-7 affirmed that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and said it wanted more flexibility in exchange rates. The language was identical to that issued at Boca Raton, Fla., last February.

China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, told local Chinese media that the country didn't face pressure.

"If we had a very big current account imbalance, there may be pressure, but China only has a small current account surplus ... so the pressure is not great. But of course with some countries the imbalance is large," Zhou said.

That imbalance is particularly acute with the U.S., where the peg of 8.28 yuan to a dollar has left the U.S. with a deficit with China of $147.7 billion, according to data through the end of November.

John Taylor, under secretary of the treasury for international affairs and the U.S. representative at the London meeting, said Saturday that bilateral talks with China were "successful."

European countries, themselves troubled by the weakness in the U.S. dollar, were pleased to have a mention in the communiqué that the U.S. has agreed "to fiscal consolidation."

French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard, at a press conference, said he saw no reason to doubt the sincerity "of his American friends" when they pledged to control their deficit and said signs from the U.S. on the dollar were "encouraging."

Debt disagreements

On debt, the differences were far more stark.

The G-7, meeting a day after former South African President Nelson Mandela called on leaders not to look the other way on world poverty, agreed to provide up to 100 percent relief from bilateral debt to what are called Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. The group will consider on a case-by-case basis relief for HIPC countries that have multilateral debt.

"London 2005 will in my view be seen as the 100 percent debt relief summit," the G-7's host, U.K. Chancellor Gordon Brown, said at a news conference.

The ministers said they would push to the G-8 summit in July a discussion for Brown's favored International Finance Facility plan; Brown said he agreed to push back the proposals because he hopes to pick up more support.

Brown's IFF called for G-7 backing to borrow as much as $100 billion up front on bond markets, and to distribute the money over 10 years.

The U.S.'s Taylor said Saturday that he still doesn't approve of Brown's IFF plan, arguing the plan would violate the U.S. appropriations process. But he also didn't express hostility to the U.K. going ahead without them.

"The IFF may be good for them. ... Let me not quarrel about the different approaches," he said.

Germany and France, for their part, issued a statement on development aid apart from the G-7, though they gave some support to Brown's proposals.

The two nations said they back a pilot International Finance Facility for immunization, and support a tax on international air travel, such as taxes on airline fuel or charges on plane tickets. France and Germany plan to present the plan to the EU, and said they hope to launch it by year's end.

Gaymard said the plane-ticket plan itself could raise as much as $3 billion.

The U.S. wasn't quite as complimentary to this proposal, as Taylor said he didn't see value in the global tax plan first presented by French President Jacques Chirac in Davos.

More oil, better data

Other highlights of the G-7 included the call for better oil data, increased medium-term energy supplies and energy market transparency. Taylor said the G-7 reference toward oil was primarily about getting better data from non-OECD countries in a bid to have less energy price volatility.

The G-7 said in its communiqué that the economy should remain "robust" in 2005.

"Since our meeting in October, the economic cycle has matured and global growth moderated, but is expected to remain robust for 2005. Risks are balanced, though global imbalances remain," it said.
 
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From what I have been able to sniff out through my sources it appears Civil War is around the corner for Iraq...that would be swell for oil, precious metals and ANY currency other the the U.S. dollar...not to be negative but only one party turned up to vote...the Kurds want their own country and the Sunni just want to kill....

I would say social security reform, national sales tax and tort reform (which mainly means a company can kill you and only have to pay 250K) - putting the price on human life, should not be the pressing issues right now...the first three issues will only benefit corporate American and the rich...

Sorry to get off on a political rant but to make investing decisions you need to see the large picture...

Good luck out there!

MT
 
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teknobucks wrote:
Could this be a little dig from China..!!!
He who holds your debt, holds your nads...all they have to do is dump their treasuries and our stock will collapse...this is captislim is like cancer it will eat the host...we have outsourced our manufactoring jobs and have to import our products...that worked great with a strong dollar...this is a hill we will never be able to take back again...what happens nexts the the Euro becomes the worlds currency...then the loss (which frankly we all ready have) of being the superpower...shaping up to be China, Euro nations and Russia...frankly Russia is scaring the crap out of me...selling weapons to Syria...hmmm...wonder where those weapons will end up...hmmmm?
 
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MarketTimer wrote:
He who holds your debt, holds your nads...all they have to do is dump their treasuries and our stock will collapse...
who will buy the paper???.........and for how much after a major "dump"???

they will take our fiat moneyas payment and we will continue to shop at wallmart until the music stops.
 
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Good point...Mike was saying as long as Chinadoes not own our security stuff he is fine with it...they purchased IBM. Alsowe sellour good stuff to Taiwan...if ya get my drift....no ties between China and Taiwan there...

Who will buy the paper is a great point....since we have no way of paying them...I would say the drop in the S&P 500 would be around 25% in two days or so....look at the crash of 1987...that is the last time something along these lines happened...by the way paragraph 2 and3 are crap...if you would of followed the downtrend of the U.S. dollar (sound familiar?????) you would of seen that foreign countries just could not take currency loses on their dollar holdings anymore....it will be a snowball that starts the landslide.....(history does repeat itself and I will be on deck watching the blood in the water)....may not be tomorrow or next week...but it is on the horizon...

The 1987 stock market crash stands out as one of the most remarkable financial events of the 20th century, perhaps since the emergence of our capitalist system several centuries ago. What makes it remarkable is:
1) the historic extent to which markets fell, an unprecedented 23%, and that they did so all over the world.
2) its suddenness, how it appeared out of nowhere, and only took one day to play itself out.
3) its complete lack of explanation. To this day no definite reason for the decline has been isolated. Basic concepts such as cause and effect, predictability, and human rationality melt before the evidence of the record breaking decline.



1987.jpg


 
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mt

what do you think of jpm's and citibank's derivatives exposure? (note: none existed in 1929 and very few in 87)


should your scenario play out how would we limit our losses to only 25%? seems 2 me the banks would have their above board and off book contracts pretty much all called in at once. the entire banking system would collaspe in a matter of days....stox would beworthless.

any thoughts?? other than the standard guns, god, and gold bs one always hears.
 
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