Looking For Santa

Our sentiment survey was decidedly bullish for the coming week, which kept the system in a sell condition. And both groups reflect that sentiment.

Here's the charts:




The Top 50 increased their allocation by 7.74%. So it appears they are buying the dip and hoping seasonality takes this market higher in the end of the year. This group still remains below a total 50% stock allocation. The last week this group had more than a 50% stock position was the week of July 5th. More than 5 months ago.




The herd increased their stock exposure by a 8.25%. So we're bullish, but not over-the-top bullish. At least not for December.

So we closed the previous week with back-to-back gains as OPEX came to a close, although Friday closed well off its highs of the day. I'm expecting more volatility, but I'm hoping the bias is higher. The Seven Sentinels do remain on a sell, but it's not far off from triggering another unofficial buy signal if the market can rally early next week.

 

[Boghie]

I think I saw Santa cruising around in October.

Ain't seen a bit of him recently.

Get some cookies

Yummy

 

[Boghie]

CH,

Looks like both charts demonstrate that folks bailed in October, bought in November, and are buying again in late December.

Kinda the opposite of what we should have been doing...

 

[murph]

Sorry, I must be mis-reading something. You say that the top 50 stock allocation is 53.81%. Looking at the bar graph, I see 3.5%+36.2%+5.0% = 44.7%. Where is the discrepancy?

 

[coolhand]

Sorry, I must be mis-reading something. You say that the top 50 stock allocation is 53.81%. Looking at the bar graph, I see 3.5%+36.2%+5.0% = 44.7%. Where is the discrepancy?

Hmmmm, the bar graph is correct. I may have misread the raw data that makes up the graph, but I won't know until I get home this evening and look at my spreadsheet. I'll let you know when I find out.

 

[coolhand]

CH,

Looks like both charts demonstrate that folks bailed in October, bought in November, and are buying again in late December.

Kinda the opposite of what we should have been doing...

Hi Boghie.

It's not an easy market to navigate is it? It looks like I jumped the gun a bit too early, but I'm not down by all the much so far. We'll see how it goes.

 

[coolhand]

Folks,

The data in the second Top 50 chart was not entirely accurate. I had originally said the Top 50 had increased their stock exposure by more than 15%, but it was actually about half that. It doesn't change my outlook any, but I wanted to set the record straight. Sorry for any confusion.

coolhand