Long Term Tally

[tsptalk]

Your tally is sure going to be missed.

Fear not! Jim was kind enough to pass along his files and EW_ret will be taking over the tally. Hopefully the transition will be smooth with no break in the action.

Thanks Rokid! And thanks EW_ret!

Tom

 

[nnuut]

EW_ret to the rescue, AGAIN!!! And thanks again EW.
Norman

 

[CountryBoy]

Fear not! Jim was kind enough to pass along his files and EW_ret will be taking over the tally. Hopefully the transition will be smooth with no break in the action.

Thanks Rokid! And thanks EW_ret!

Tom

Thanks EW_ret for picking up the baton from Rokid and running with it.

CB

 

[poolman]

Awesome...

Thank you Jim, Tom, and EW_ret for making this wonderful tallie continue on. What a relief to know I have this to look forward to on Saturday's.

I think this was one of the main reason's I joined tsptalk. I wanted an honest to goodness way to track myself and have fun. Teamwork pay's off and we have good players.

Thanks again,

Paul

 

[rokid]

FYI. Pyriel's da man. Three years of strong performance. :nuts:------Jim

 

[nnuut]

No Rokid you DA MAN!!

 

[Miss_Piggy]

HERE ARE ROKID'S TALLIES!
I was looking for these a couple of days ago. Thank you Rokid. Can I look forward to seeing them again on any regular basis?

FYI. Pyriel's da man. Three years of strong performance. :nuts:------Jim
Attached Files

 

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

Sure, I'll start posting them again. ------Jim

 

[Birchtree]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

 

[charmed855]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

Birch, when in those three years did you stop being a "multi-fund swing trader?"

 

[rokid]

Some new Long Term Tallies for you perusal.

Congrats to Griffin. He's now the 2 year leader.

However, Pyriel continues to maintain his 3 year lead. He's probably also doing good in real estate. Doesn't seem fair.:laugh:-----Jim

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Hey Rokid,
We are really going to need your tallies now since we can't move around so much anymore. Are you going to be available?

HERE ARE ROKID'S TALLIES!
I was looking for these a couple of days ago. Thank you Rokid. Can I look forward to seeing them again on any regular basis?

 

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

Anything for you! ----Jim

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Miss Piggy,

Anything for you! ----Jim

:laugh:..... :cheesy:

 

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally for 30 Nov 2007. All of this recent market turmoil hasn't had much of an impact in the long term rankings.

 

[rokid]

Friends Don’t Let Friends “Buy and Hold”

Experts, including Nobel Prize winners, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, recommend a passive, diversified asset allocation, for the average investor. Interestingly, TSPTalk is devoted to market timing. I guess like Lake Wobegonians, all TSPTalkers are above average.

But are they? What are TSPTalk market timers getting for all of their IFTs?

A cursory review of returns would suggest that market timing works. Griffin is at 19.58% for the year. Pyriel is at 18.44%. Approximately 45% of TSPTalkers are beating the L2040 Fund. However, on the flip side, 55% of TSPTalker returns are losing to the L2040 Fund. Tom is at -7.4%. In addition, nearly all of the TSPTalkers take positions that are riskier than the L2040.

So what are the facts?

• In 2007 the average market timing TSPTalker is under performing the average passive, diversified, “buy and hold” TSPTalker asset allocation (Aslan and Rokid). Through 30 Nov:
  • TSPTalker market timers: 7.15%
  • TSPTalker “Buy and holders”: 8.44%
• Over the last two years
  • TSPTalk market timers: 21.9%
  • TSPTalker “Buy and holders”: 27.03%
• In 2007, the L2020, L2030, and L2040 are beating the average market timing TSPTalker.
• Over the last two years, the L2020, L2030, and L2040 are beating the average market timing TSPTalker.
• The Total Global Market (TGM) allocation, at 10.08% for the year, is killing the average market timing TSPTalker.
• Over the last two years, the TGM passive allocation beat 91% of the TSPTalkers. Over the last three years, TGM beat 75% of the TSPTalkers.

Although it’s hard to argue against the performance of market timers like Griffin and Pyriel, it’s also clear that the odds of outperforming a well constructed, “buy and hold” portfolio over the long run, for the average TSPTalker, are slim.

In addition, “buy and hold” doesn’t have to worry about the proposed TSP IFT restrictions. ------Jim

 

[Bullitt]

Rokid,

Good post. I guess we're forced to refer to two years as 'Long Term Investing' so that the buy side analysts can continue to pump new stock recommendations to us daily. The days of the easy money IFT's may be long gone and that's not because of the new two per month restriction. I think a lot of folks out there got caught holding the bag when that vix began to rise in Feb '07.

Stocks for the long run.

 

[pyriel]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

Hi all! I'm in Kansas right now doing our mobilization training. Somehow I changed the way I transfer funds and lately i've been a buy and holder. I will continue to swing trade but for now and for the next 3 years at least, I truly believe that I fund will outlast c&s funds. Additionally, my deployment doesn't allow me to track TSP funds as i'd like it to be so for me the safest bet is to put everything in the i fund for now. Also, Guam time zone requires me to wake up at 2 am in the morning to watch tha last minute trend and since im a sleepy head, i had to change my trading strategy.

My real estate is booming (Sorry to dissapoint you Birch;-)) All my properties were bought at a very low price and appreciation have skyrocket. A good example is my 8 unit apartment that i bought for 160k in 2003 is now pegged for 520k. With billions of dollars on its way to Guam (good for at least 5 years) due to Marines being kicked out of Okinawa, RE here will continue to boom. I am looking at selling most of my properties within that timeframe and then wait for the bust that will soon follow.

I just want to note that I totally agree with Rokid's assessment. I, too, have been looking at the tally and looking at other peoples return and trade practices and i'm not seeing a really big difference between buy/hold and swing trade. However, I also think that the difference we are seeing between the two is because of people getting on board and trying out swing trading. I'm sure that you all can see that I barely made 7% in 2005 and I attribute this due to learning experience for being so new.

Hope you guys are doing well and lets continue to help each other out. No use being on top if you are alone and there is no one to talk to;-). BTW as I always say, pls don't follow me coz I really don't know what i'm doing.

Pyriel

 

[nnuut]

Pyriel, nice to hear from you. Good news with your real estate investments, gonna be a rich man!!! Best of luck.
Norman

 

[ayla]

I just want to note that I totally agree with Rokid's assessment. I, too, have been looking at the tally and looking at other peoples return and trade practices and i'm not seeing a really big difference between buy/hold and swing trade. However, I also think that the difference we are seeing between the two is because of people getting on board and trying out swing trading. I'm sure that you all can see that I barely made 7% in 2005 and I attribute this due to learning experience for being so new.
Pyriel

Yes, I believe that is an excellent point. Newbies invariably don't do well (though there are exceptions of course). I wish we could have a report on the number of people in the tracker and the length of time since they first became members vs their returns. That is the whole point of our doing our own trading, we get a chance to learn how (and some of us may take longer than others before we develop a viable good strategy or throw in the towel and follow someone with a good track record). What is wrong with that? Seems like the old (stubborn) American pioneer/can-do spirit to me.

My signature says it all.