Long Term Tally

[Rod]

Griffin crushed the competition in the 2 year long-term tally leader. Show-me rallied at the end of the year to re-take the 3 year leader position. Congratulations. -----Jim

Looking at the 2 year, it seems just a couple folks (Spaf, Gritz) have shown consistency within their returns. Some of the rest of us have some rather wide swings. So, it's still anyone's game!:laugh:

Good job fellas!

 

[Show-me]

I am learning diversification is defiantly the name of the game. You can not pick the top or the bottom and you can not pick the single fund that will perform the best for the new year.

How about that F Fund?

 

[Rod]

I am learning diversification is defiantly the name of the game. You can not pick the top or the bottom and you can not pick the single fund that will perform the best for the new year.

How about that F Fund?

I came this close to going 80 (G) 20 (F) to start of the new year...

 

[rokid]

The final Long-Term Tallies for 2007. Griffin rules in the two year tally. Show-me is tops in the three year tally.

"We're not worthy". ;-) -----Jim

 

[rokid]

The first long-term tallies of the new year. Show-me is "the man". He is number one since 2005. However, Pyriel is a close second. Those two are amazing.

If I were a trader, I know who I'd be following. On second thought.....-----Jim

 

[rokid]

Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008.----Jim

 

[Miss_Piggy]

again, Jim.

 

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

You're more than welcome!-----Jim

 

[Weather_n_Leather]

Question:

Based on my data, the most successful TSP Talk investment approach has been single fund swing trade, i.e. 100% between fixed income (G&F) and equities (C,S, & I), with an average return of 9.34% YTD. The second best approach has been multi-fund diversified, i.e. passive asset allocation among multiple funds, with a 6.62% return YTD. However, most people being tracked are multi-fund swing trade, i.e. switching between multi-fund positions, with a 5.39% YTD return.

What exactly do the following terms mean?

single fund swing trade

multi-fund diversified

multi-fund swing trade

I would like to know which category fit in.

 

[rokid]

Single Fund Swing Trade - Frequent IFTing between one fund at a time. For example, between the G Fund and the I Fund or between the F Fund and the C Fund. This is the classic market timing approach. It is practiced by relatively few TSPTalkers. However, it resulted in the highest average return in 2007.

Examples: IFT1: 100% G; IFT2: 100% I; IFT3: 100% C.

Multi-fund Diversified - Passive asset allocation. Use of multiple funds. Periodic re-balancing. This is the approach recommended by the TSP board and many financial experts. It's also the L Fund approach. With the departure of Aslan, I believe that I am the only TSPTalk Multi-fund Diversified practitioner.

Example: 20% G, 20% F, 20% C, 10% S, and 30% I.

Multi-fund Swing Trade - IFTing between multiple funds with a single IFT. For example, going from 50% G/50% F to 33% C, 33% S, 33% I. This is the approach utilized by the largest number of TSPTalkers attempting to time the market. It was also the least productive approach, in terms of average return, in 2007.

Examples: IFT1: 100% G; IFT2: 50% C, 50% I; IFT3: 25% C, 25% S, 50% I; IFT4: 50% G, 50% F

 

[Weather_n_Leather]

Rokid,

Thank you for the information.

I guess you would say that I use the Multi-fund Swing Trade approach. But I am not entirely sure. I am currently:

G 65%
F 10%
C 5%
S 5%
I 15%

I occasionally make changes to these percentages. But they are more like tweaks than wholesale changes.

I am not trying to time the market...just make changes to reflect current and future expectations.

Once again, thanks!

 

[rokid]

Weather n Leather,

Based on your description, I'd categorize you as a Multi-fund Diversified investor. Welcome to the board and good luck with your investing.-----Jim

 

[rokid]

Re: Long-Term Tally

The Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008. Read'um and weep! :laugh:----Jim

 

[rokid]

The attached shows simulated L Fund returns since 1988. Since the L Funds didn't exist until recently, I took their original allocations and ran them through my back tester. Note, I didn't re-balance daily and I didn't adjust the allocations quarterly. Therefore, the returns are just an approximation.

However, I do think it is interesting that there is an obvious correlation between risk and return. During this time period, 1988-2007, higher risk (check the $93K 2002 C Fund loss!) yielded higher returns. That may or may not happen in future time periods. Currently, we're enjoying the other side of risk. -----Jim

 

[rokid]

Attached is my long-term portfolio back tester. In addition to supporting the input of various portfolio allocations, it provides estimated 2007 portfolio values for all of the TSP Funds, the Total Global Market, and Rokid's portfolio.

Incidentally, the I Fund really sucked in the 1990s. :cheesy:-------Jim

 

[rokid]

The Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008. ----Jim

 

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 8 Feb 2008. ----Jim

 

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 15 Feb 2008. ----Jim

 

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 22 Feb 2008. ----Jim

 

[rokid]

Correction: I missed the fact that Futurestrader, Russell, and Spaf stopped posting to the autotracker.:embarrest:-----Jim