Long Term: Buy and Hold

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I think some of the difference in our economic outlook may be attributed to our age or the generation we grew up in. You were born in the late 70s and I was born in the early 50s. That doesn’t completely explain the differences in our outlook as there are many in my generation with an outlook similar to yours. Some children growing up within the same family unit take on more of their parental generational traits and/or quirks than their siblings, so there can sometimes be a bleeding over or overlap of values from one generation to another and the generational distinction less finite. In other cases, however, the generational distinctions are quite clear, especially when viewed from a macro perspective. There is very little distinction between my values and the values my parents had. We were very close. They lived through the depression and valued hard work and[/b] savings[/i]. That doesn’t necessarily mean later generations don’t have a work ethic and are spendthrifts, but it certainly, relatively speaking, colors our outlook somewhat and our savings and investment decisions. And I think the current negative savings rate generally supports that viewpoint.

Although, savings is very important to me, my outlook on what to save[/i] differs from many of those in my parent’s generation. In my parent’s generation the dollar was KING. My parent’s generation had not experienced the erosion of value of the currency during their formative years and was somewhat surprised when they took their early retirements thinking their $250,000 in CDs would carry them through their twilight years in Sun City. Most of them had to go back to work to make ends meet. Inflation kind of snuck up on them because they were not paying attention to monetary policy changes taking place. Since 1913, with the formation of the Federal Reserve, monetary changes have become increasingly intrusive on our pocketbooks and few are paying attention.

The FED doing away with the reporting of M3 is a perfect example. The mainstream press totally blew it off as insignificant, but international financiers and central banks took notice. Not only did they take notice, but they took action. Normally, short term fluctuations between gold and the dollar share an inverse relationship. When gold is up the dollar is down and vice versa. Recently, however, gold and the dollar have been going up together and we’ve also seen where the I-Fund hasn’t followed its traditional pattern in relation to the dollar. The recent run-up in gold is the international smart money community voting with their financial feet and saying with one loud voice, “If you are going to play games with your currency and keep those games hidden from public view, we will choose to place our confidence in something more tangible and they are buying gold. The dollar will turn back down and continue its descent with a vengeance. The hiding of the M3 is as comparable to Nixon closing the gold window in 1971 as to the effects it will have on gold/dollar relationship. The hiding of the M3 is a Weimar Republic style move that could very well lead to hyperinflation and the removal of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It may not even survive as a currency at all. You can’t have honest weights and measures by removing the numbers from the scale. Eliminating M3 removes our ability to view how fast the money supply is increasing. I would surmise that the FED is preparing to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the system and they don’t want their actions to be scrutinized. Typically, as in most government actions, the outcome will be what they least desire.

There is only one thing backing the U.S. dollar and that is confidence. The U.S. dollar is a con-fidence game. With the removal of M3, a bit of that con-fidence was lost. How much con-fidence was lost? Watch gold…it IS telling the story.

Much like face lifts and boob jobs are a desperate and vain attempt to defy reality and gravitational forces, discontinuance of M3 reporting is a desperate and vain attempt to dishonestly remove natural gravitational forces from the financial equation.

If you think it works, go to Aspen and watch those old hags get off their leased jets in their fur coats with their hair pulled back in a bun so tight they can’t even blink their eyes. It will provide hours of amusement and entertainment.

On the other hand, if the lights were turned down a bit and after a few drinks…hey, who knows? That is what the FED is counting on with their manipulations. They are hoping if the lights are turned down a bit…that old hag they are trying to pimp will produce some revenue especially if they can get their financial news media buddies to serve the Johns some intoxicating news that will dull their wits a bit.

It doesn’t take much to impress John and JoeSixPack…the glitter, glamour, and speculative heat of scoring big time with this doll-ar is just too much for the average John and Joe to resist and their wallets sitting on the night stand will get emptied as they drift off in the ‘afterglow’ of a ‘gotta have it now’ evening of good times. The awakening will be a rude one, however, as they look over and see the sun shining through the window illuminating the doll-ar they are sharing more than space with. The sick and repugnant nature of the heated affair will conjure up images of a raccoon using his teeth to dismember himself to be free from the jaws of a steel trap. The Johns will vainly attempt to flee from clutches of this doll-ar, but the true hag underneath the face lift and boob job will force herself on this John with all the ferocity and tenaciousness of a woman about to be jilted. Poor John and Joe might as well put on their victim faces right now…they haven’t a chance.

The old farts who got left sitting at the bar while the young bucks walked out with their fur wrapped trophy doll-ars, are quietly smiling to themselves as they get up and head on home with their money safely tucked away for a rainy day.

But while that may generally be true, sad to say, there are still old farts out there who don’t know they are old farts and pretend to be young bucks…you know the 50-60 year old guywearingthe gold chains and medallions around their necks doing the comb over and driving Vettes who ought to be mature enough see through the folly of face lifts, boob jobs, and fur coats, but for some reason can’t pull themselves out of the quicksand of denial.They gotta alotta horsepower, but no traction.

The young bucks have one up on the foolish old fart doing the comb over and driving the Vette. They (the young bucks) have time on their side and can recoup. The foolish old fart is toast.
 
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Some of you guys should write books!

Anyways, buy and hold is my game until Dec24-26, then its over to G for a couple months, then ease back into the game.
 
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Wimpy,

What do you think: If the Dow, OEX, and the SPX are the only indexes that rally importantly from here and the MID and SML do not, would this suggest that a termination price top of the entire advance from the 10/02 bottoms would be the preferred interpretation?

Now, for someone born in the early 50s, the expectation gained of experience should demonstrate a greater appreciation of a well tuned deisel motor or a V8 with electroglide. Even a dated Mercedes can still give you an exhilarating ride. It's not always the packaging that is important but the degree of fine tuning that allows the performance that one anticipates. Some who have gained fine tuning knowledge realize that the appropriate fuel must be used or the motor will keep on dieseling and sometimes that is exactly the point.

After reading your post it dawned on me that it was autobiographical - a sketch in memory - then I realized you are toast and it was just flatulence from all that Kombucha tea. But it was a good read. Your buddy Birchtree.
 
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Birchtree, dont be angry that Wimpy denies your materialistic and consumerist society that plagues humanity. And jeez, you didn't even offer a valid argument to Wimpy's "auto-biographical" "sketch in memory". Next time try harder to defend the new "union" of religion and state, commonly known as materialism, that you hold so close and dear. Just remember, a man is judged by his deeds<read:a notable achievement> and not his "deeds"<read:a legal document signed and sealed and delivered to effect a transfer of property and to show the legal right to possess it>.
 
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Soldat,

Good buddy, thanks for stepping up it only proves my original point - you are the father - I'm not wrong, I'm not wrong. I retract my humble apology and you are toast.

Birchtree is never angered - only humored. But it is now evident that both you and Wimpy (and I'll wait on the next aliase to surface) are both absolutely clueless and without temerity when it comes to servicing the intricacies of an electroglide V8. Most V8 models especially of the classic mode require a minimum warm up time of at least 20 minutes before peak performance is achieved. Then it becomes delightful cruising - kinda like on low RPMs with reduced energy expenditure. Any woman over 45 years of age can offer finer details.

A technician recently said regarding M3 and I quote, "...that every bear out there that hasn't been right all during this advance is now crying to high heaven that "now the the Fed is hiding this M3 information from the sheeple" or some such non sense"

You should know that the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index has placed a new all time high.
 
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Wimpy:

My long term outlook could be similar to much of what you have written about, BUT you haven't addressed the article I posted about Securitizing Reserves May Be Clever, and Risky.

The article -- from what I can make of it -- states thatthat would be a very good strategy to keep things more or less in line with the staus quo as far as world trade and the dollar's value is concerned. It may even hold off the economic apocalypse you allude to for the system as a whole.

Short term I believe there are positive returns to be made for the next few months; after which time I will renew my subscription to Brinker's market timing newsletter for his viewpoint. He doesn't micro-manage market timing moves, but he was VERY correct in Jan. 2000 and April 2003. But I know too that past results do not guarentee future returns.

If securitization of US reserves is a sham, then, yeah, I'd have to side with your outlook.
 
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First off, the gold market has been bullish for quite some time - it would be very difficult to prove causation here with regard to the fed's policy on notreleasing M3 data going forward.

Secondly, even if the fed no longer releases that data, there are still numerous types of data that investors can analyze to figure out what's going on in this economy. If the fed decides to print a bunch of money, the consequences should show up quickly. A spike in the overall price level would be the first obvious one.
 
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Medusa - here is the set up - come get some if you are inclined.

The S&P is replacing AT&T with Amazon in the 500-stock index.

In 2006 I think the emphasis will be on growth rather than value. One reason is scarcity. After a remarkable 14-quarter string of double-digit earnings gains, increases could be harder to come by next year. Consider that the valuation gap between growth stocks and value stocks has narrowed considerably - for example the difference between the P/E ratios of the S&P Barra growth index and value index was 3.7 points at the end of the third quarter of this year, down from 18.7 points at year-end 2000. That gives growth stocks some head room to advance. Remember that four years ago the small/mid caps were roughly 20% under-priced relative to large caps. Now they are better than 10% over-priced. Moreover, in a rising interest rate environment, large-caps tend to do better.

It will be important to note going forward whether the current break outs :S&P, DTA, NDX composite, are confirmed by new highs on the DJU and NYSE cumulative daily advance/decline indexes as well as by volume. If these measures fail to exceed their recent peaks, such negative divergences would suggest that the market is in a mature stage of its post 2002 cyclical bull market and is vulnerable to a cyclical decline in 2006 - separate from the approaching 4 year cycle low. No one wants to be left alone on the top before it implodes. I think the forward guidance from GE will help with the light at the end of the tunnel.

I notice some participants are basking in the sun from success at trading - my accolades to you all - can you feel my pain. If we are entering a wave 3 price expansion the opportunities will be shallow and probably minimal - good luck. The trader wants to cash out at the top, grabbing profits and shirts on everything and sitting back with a clean slate; the investor understands the value of patience, knowing the truly big money is made in the long cycles.

Dennis
 
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Just a thought on the big picture.

Bernanke mentioned that the extraordinarily high savings rate by foreigners has a lot to do with the sustainability of American fiscal and trade deficits; because of that foreign central banks continue to hold huge reserves of American debt ... and they increasingly carry more and more or it. So this nation is more and more (literally) in debt to them.

And the more anyone is in debt to anyone else the less control one has of their own finances, i.e. the less freedom one has.

While that is a little scarey, we need to see why other peoples' choose to save at extraordinarily high levels.

Could be that the majority of the people in developing countries are truely on their own. The family unit is still THE MAJOR social welfare agency they have. They have nothing else: no social security system, no medicare, no 401k, no pension system, no medicaid, no student loan agencies, etc etc.

So they will typically save 20-30% of their income; it is disheartening to know that their savings is being used to bankroll the Great Society. We all know what working conditions must be like there as well: probably abysmal.

And so long as things remain the same there, things will just as be continue suave bolla here.

The only thing that can upset that status quo as I see it is some kind of unintended calamity that threatens the relative lifestyle of all people ... like some kind of jump in the value of a natural resource like oil or some kind of war.

Other things happen more gradually: like lifestyle changes that encourage greater consumption/less saving by those in developing countries; like social welfare programs that make families in developing countries much less dependent on their family unit. Those things don't happen overnight.

Meanwhile, barring any kind of sudden shift in the demand for natural resources or a war, I can't see any big changes for the worst. The securitization of the dollar seems interesting as a means to even sustain a greater standard of living both here and abroad.

But if there is a sudden shift in the demand for resources--with either less of a supply (war) or a greater demand -- will not that be satisfied by less savings by all those who are affected by it? Damn right there will be less savings. And more of what would have been saved will go up in -- let's say -- fumes. And there will definately be a crunch: $3, $5, $7 a gallon gasoline. And that will crunch everyone world wide.

So knowing all this, it would be in America's interest -- really -- to give token assistance to those developing nations that need it when natural disasters strike. It is like our assistancebecomes a substitute for the social welfare programs they haven't developed. I suppose that is what charitable giving helps to achieve too, but let's be frank about that -- not anAmerican gives until it hurts in that regard.
 
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Foreign aid to developing countries is a joke because most of it ends up in the hands of the corrupt dictatorships and never reaches its intended recipients.

Higher gas prices would not impact all countries in the same fashion. European nations impose extremely high taxes on gasoline, so the cost per gallon there is considerably higher than in the US. $3 per gallon would be cheap to them.

As for foreign countries buying up our debt, they benefit from that just as much as we do. They get a fixed (and decent) return on our t-bills, while we get to continue borrowing money rather than cutting spending/raising taxes. This allows the US to continue its role as the world's leading consumer. Considering how strong our appetite is for foreign goods, do you think foreign countries really want to do anything to change this? If they don't buy our debt, real interest rates will climb until someone does. That puts a pinch on anyone wanting to borrow money - which is bad for our economy and the global one as well.

Other countries are just as powerless in all of this as we are. We want to borrow instead of tax/gut our programs, and they want US consumers to have the money to continue buying their goods.
 
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I would suppose some would differ with your assessment Mike, i.e. whether the overseas person is being penalized for saving or if that lifestyle is an immediatebenefit to them.

Chances are most there have differing interpretations of immediate gratification.

Of course here the savings rate is ZERO.

The price for gasoline in Europe is much more expensive than it is here due to taxes, but as the price of oil fluctuates, so do the prices there as they do here, e.g whereas where we may pay $2.25 and it may increase to $3.00, there they may have once paid $6.25 and it will increase to $7.
 
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”If securitization of US reserves is a sham, then, yeah, I'd have to side with your outlook.” –Quips

Comment: I wouldn’t know whether it was a sham or not, but if I was a Chinese investor or any investor, for that matter, there would be a limit to the amount I would invest in ‘funds’ where I couldn’t completely liquidate my position. I think this plan is wishful thinking on the part of someone who really wouldn’t buy into himself, but he is simply hoping others will. -- Wimpy

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“First off, the gold market has been bullish for quite some time - it would be very difficult to prove causation here with regard to the fed's policy on notreleasing M3 data going forward.” -- Mike

Comment: You are correct, the gold market has been bullish for quite some time, but the point I was making was the relationship between the dollar and gold has changed recently. Gold, in times past, has gone up when the dollar has gone down, but recently gold and the dollar having been moving up together somewhat. When the dollar turns south, however, gold will go north with a vengeance. -- Wimpy

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”Secondly, even if the fed no longer releases that data, there are still numerous types of data that investors can analyze to figure out what's going on in this economy. If the fed decides to print a bunch of money, the consequences should show up quickly. A spike in the overall price level would be the first obvious one.” ---Mike

Comment: The consequences of a mismanaged currency show up quicker with more transparency. Remove the transparency and some will see the difference quicker than others and profit from the hanky panky. I plan on being one of those that profit from the shenanigans. In other words, I will be at the front of several popcicle licking lines simultaneously versus my schmuck buddy with the comb over. He will be left sitting in his Vette with a dry stick thinking about the good old days. --Wimpy

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While that is a little scarey, we need to see why other peoples' choose to save at extraordinarily high levels.

Could be that the majority of the people in developing countries are truely on their own. The family unit is still THE MAJOR social welfare agency they have. They have nothing else: no social security system, no medicare, no 401k, no pension system, no medicaid, no student loan agencies, etc etc.”
-– Quips

Comment: And this is coming to a country near and dear to both of us with the curtailment of entitlements. The key question to ask at this point is what will the Asians do about it? Will they be able to diversify away from the U.S. consumer quick enough? They are already starting to because they feel more than a tad uncomfortable with this ‘global interdependency’ thingee because they’ve just figured out that interdependency is a double edged sword. In good times every thing is great x2…if times are bad, however, every thing is bad x2. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could have our cake and eat it too? Some think so…but I prefer reality. --

Wimpy
 
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The national savings rate is not zero. I've said it before and will say it again - it's a bad formula they are using. Housing assets held in this country = trillions of dollars. When looking for savings, look there.

These savings would show up in the stock / bond market if our tax policy wasn't so ridiculously skewed in favor of home ownership. I saw a suggestion in a column the other day saying we should replace the deduction with a tax credit based on the interest paid instead - that means if you pay $5000 in interest, you'd see the same tax benefit regardless of your income level. I agree with that approach - if you're paying the same interest (which is the justification for the tax benefit), then you should receive the same benefit.

The Chinese will have a hard time moving away from American trade - that's worth many billions of dollars annually to them.
 
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Mike wrote:
The national savings rate is not zero. I've said it before and will say it again - it's a bad formula they are using. Housing assets held in this country = trillions of dollars. When looking for savings, look there.


Mike,

De-nial ain't just some river in Egypt.

What you said above about real estate/housing would've been true 35 years ago, but with all the home equity loans people havetaken outto purchase depreciating assets like cars, boats, cruises, and the like...that ain't savings. That is consumerism, pure and simple. And to top it off, with the high rate of ARM loans...this consumerism or savings, as you call it, is a few interest points away from evaporating into thin air. People are borrowing against their homes for 'routine' budgetary items. That ain't savings by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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Wimpy,

There is a fair warning in your post. Some folks ain't planning for their retirement!
IMHO....>OPM should work with Departments to better educate all government guys and gals on a retirement strategy, and not leave it up to harem-skarem.

At first I was kind of skeptical about the TSP Lifecycle funds. However, If one choses not to manage their funds, its the next best alternative.

The government folks have a lot going for them, but they need to be educated and start developing a plan for their retirement. And not wait till it's too late!

OPM should advise employees when they start working for the government, then periodically. Waiting till they want to retire is wrong!

Maybe, some Departments do it differently, great, but all departments should be in step on the retirement matter!

My 2 cents! Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
 
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Wimpy wrote:
Mike,

De-nial ain't just some river in Egypt.

What you said above about real estate/housing would've been true 35 years ago, but with all the home equity loans people havetaken outto purchase depreciating assets like cars, boats, cruises, and the like...that ain't savings. That is consumerism, pure and simple. And to top it off, with the high rate of ARM loans...this consumerism or savings, as you call it, is a few interest points away from evaporating into thin air. People are borrowing against their homes for 'routine' budgetary items. That ain't savings by any stretch of the imagination.
I have not been able to find any national statistics that track just what percentage of home owners have taken out HELOCs. Do you have access to any such data? If so, I'd like to see it. The second issue here is that it is simply impossible to track where all this money is going. Yes, frivolity is a problem, but I wouldguess there are many other purposes involved here.Having a low interest option to obtain the cash to do some costly remodeling is one thatimmediately comes to mind, and this is hardly frivolous - and if done correctly, will substantially increase the value of one's property. I know of a few people who have done this to replace kitchen cabinetry / flooring, etc. - all of which can cost thousands of dollars.
 
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Usually the equity one has in a house is NOT counted as "savings" by most financial planners.

One only needs to go back two generations in America to discover that the average working stiff who had the family unit as the major social wefare agency was not satisfied just by being afforded a back breaking joband the fruit of such labor being exclusively poured into the plant in which he worked in and in thepockets of those who owneditscapital. LOL Mike.

The same thing in principle is going on today, but on a different scale. Time will tell how long that will continue, but as I said before, such things generally happen gradually and hopefullly over decades; and it is a good thing when it does happen that way rather than abruptly.

I just read a Vanguard newsletter (August 2005) that stated that debt should not exceed 25-35% of one's gross income(!). It also mentions that visiting family and friends and volunteer work -- and not taking lavish vacations -- will help to keep one's retirement comfortable throughout its many years ... if not decades as well.

Now, does the average American anticipate a healthy retirement until its conclusion? How many anticipate it many not be as carefree healthwise at 70 asthey areat 40 or 50? And what will that cost be?

44 million Americanshave no health insurance.How much will Rx drugs cut into disposible/discretionary income as well as other major health care costs?

Like I said before, I have to respect the pessimistic outlook, but I hope for the best. It would be prudent not not only respect such pessimism, but to err on the side onconservatism.
 
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Quips wrote:
44 million Americanshave no health insurance.How much will Rx drugs cut into disposible/discretionary income as well as other major health care costs?


I talked to a guy today whose wife is a retired elementary schoolteacher. Her health insurance (family plan)premiums are $1,000.00 a month with a $2,000.00 yearly deductible. Gulp!
 
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Rather than just superficially talk about the uninsured numbers, I have chosen to dig deeper. You can thank me later for being bored. :P

http://www.kff.org/uninsured/upload/Health-Insurance-Coverage-in-America-2002-Data-Update.pdf

Highlights:
43.3 million have no health insurance
21% are under the age of 19
40% are age 19-34
8% are 55-64 years old
31% are age 35-54

Thoughts: The likelihood of carrying insurance is directly linked to income (obviously). However, those under the age of 34 showed a substantially higher likelihood of being uninsured even at higher income levels. What this tells me is that people in this age demographic (of which I'm a part) aren't particularly interested in carrying health insurance (probably thinking they don't / won't need it for many years). Also note that Minnesota is one of the states with the lowest uninsured rates in the country. :^

Lastly - ifyou don't count your home equity as a type of savings, what exactly do financial planners call it then? If you ignore it completely, I think you're doing yourself a disservice. It may not be the most liquid of assets, but it's still an asset that can certainly work to your advantage (as Pyriel most certainly knows). If you retire and decide to sell your relatively high cost housing in order to move toa place that's cheaper (something I will most certainly do in 30 years or so), then I'd say your home equity will definitely count in the savings column. In a roundabout way,I think I have concluded that equity should be counted as deferred savings - it's there, but you don't benefit from it until you sell the property.
 
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Mike,

Interesting info.

I was surprised that of the16 states with the lowest uninsured rates, 9 were in the Midwestand 5 were in the Northeast - all clumped together geographically in their respective regions.Not surprisingly, the West and the South, with a couple of exceptions, hadhigh rates of uninsured.Unfortunately, two of the most populous and, supposedly, liberal states, New York and California, also had high rates of uninsured.

I'm assuming Michigan's low rate of uninsured is due to the unions - particularly the United Auto Workers. However, what's the story with the other Midwest states? Unions, socially conscious business, good government, high rates of government employees,other?
 
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