Let's Talk About F, Babee

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Bond yields were mixed today. Most were unchanged or a hair down. The AGG shows -.09. I'm guesssing(hoping) the F fund will be even today.;)
 
Not looking good for bonds. Yields are up modestly across the board. I'm guessing a loss of 2-3 cents in th F fund.
 
I'm About Ready To Give Completely Up On The F Fund
I Don't Recall Ever Making Any Money Here

Zeroooooooooooooooooo's
And
Minussssssssssssssssssss

Md
 
Note to self... when making a pass through the F-Pit, try to reach out and grab the G-Penny as you pass. :embarrest:
 
After Friday's data, short-term caution in Bond Funds. We just could have hit, or we are close to a major bottom in long term interest rates.


Take Care!
 
SkyPilot said:
I hate the F fund...

should never go there...

always use G...

maybe next time I'll remember!
Click to expand...


I also like the G Fund for safety.


The Top Bond Timers are Bullish with 3 Bulls, 1 Bear and 1 Netural. That's enough to keep me cautious on Bonds. After Friday's data will the Fed cut rates in the first quarter of 2007? The Bond Market is now saying maybe not.
 
robo said:
I also like the G Fund for safety.


The Top Bond Timers are Bullish with 3 Bulls, 1 Bear and 1 Netural. That's enough to keep me cautious on Bonds. After Friday's data will the Fed cut rates in the first quarter of 2007? The Bond Market is now saying maybe not.
Click to expand...

It wasn't just Fridays data. 132k is an ok number not great. It might even get revised down next month. Bond yields were up modestly after data. When the yields are this low, it doesn't take much to cause a sell off. Combine that with Mr. Paulson's comments to Marie about how good a shape the economy is and you have yourself a sell off in bonds.

IMHO, we are not yet at the bottom for long term yields. More bad ECON data will come out. The Feds will have to cut rates. If we get another manufacturing data below 50, there will be no question about it.
 
FUTURESTRADER said:
terp....you looking at AGG?

$TNX short term (today) looks higher, longer term (3 days) still trending lower.
Click to expand...
no....was going by TLT. No bearish candle on AGG, i see.
$TNX has a BULLISH engulfing candle though, so (likely) will go higher.
I forgot whether TLT or AGG is better indicator. I should probly look into that eh? :p
 
FuturesTrader,
$TNX is the yield. Bonds are lower. Are you confusing the two, or am I just butting into a converstion again? :)
 
tsptalk said:
FuturesTrader,
$TNX is the yield. Bonds are lower. Are you confusing the two, or am I just butting into a converstion again? :)
Click to expand...

yep, you're buttin in..but it's your house, your entitled :) my bad for being vague on that...$tnx is yield, inverse to 10 yr bond price/F fund performance.

I think AGG is better indicator longer term..2/3 days, vs TLT which does seem to be a better intraday indicator..not enough volume on AGG, does about .5 M daily, TLT about 1 M. TLT is 20+ year duration bonds. SHY is 1-3 yrs, AGG is 'AGG'regate
 
So far, it's down 1 cent.

The near future for the F fund is not looking good. While Today's retails were a little bit above expections, Oct & Nov's were revised down and holiday sales were a little disappointing. With recent Fed speaks and economic data, the bond market appears to have changed their expectations for a rate cut.
 
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