04/22/13
Stocks rallied on Friday although the Dow was only up 10-points because of the 8% decline in Dow Component IBM after a weak earnings report. The broader indices saw gains near 1%.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 160"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is below resistance created by a sharp descending short-term trend (3) and it is also below the old support line (2), which can easily act as resistance. The descending trend (3) may be too steep to expect it to last long, but the 20-day EMA is right there as well, and if the market is changing its character, the EMA and the new resistance line (2) will be the ones to watch.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It has been many weeks that we have talked about this rally keeping the S&P near the top of a large trading channel (red) but it has been resiliently hanging around the rising resistance line. The 50-day EMA is holding currently, but the problem is, if that and bottom of the short-term trading channel breaks, there isn't much support below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transportation Index has been rolling over and this rounded top could be a resistance area. The support near 105 on this IYT Transportation ETF is what to watch, as well as the 20-day EMA and semi-circle resistance above.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Same here on the Semiconductor Index. There's support below but another rounded top resistance area.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Sentiment has been resiliently bearish in the surveys. The recent TSP Talk Sentiment Survey showed 32% of our readers being bullish, and 59% bearish for a 0.54 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. The survey system considers that a very bullish sign for stocks for the coming week, and seems too bearish for a market that is near all-time highs.
But last week's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not part of our website) came in with 27% bulls and 48% bears for a very similar 0.56 to 1 bulls to bears ratio.
So while the charts would indicate trouble ahead, sentiment suggests that if the "dumb money" investors (us) are wrong as usual, the market outlook would be bullish this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied on Friday although the Dow was only up 10-points because of the 8% decline in Dow Component IBM after a weak earnings report. The broader indices saw gains near 1%.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 160"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is below resistance created by a sharp descending short-term trend (3) and it is also below the old support line (2), which can easily act as resistance. The descending trend (3) may be too steep to expect it to last long, but the 20-day EMA is right there as well, and if the market is changing its character, the EMA and the new resistance line (2) will be the ones to watch.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It has been many weeks that we have talked about this rally keeping the S&P near the top of a large trading channel (red) but it has been resiliently hanging around the rising resistance line. The 50-day EMA is holding currently, but the problem is, if that and bottom of the short-term trading channel breaks, there isn't much support below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transportation Index has been rolling over and this rounded top could be a resistance area. The support near 105 on this IYT Transportation ETF is what to watch, as well as the 20-day EMA and semi-circle resistance above.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Same here on the Semiconductor Index. There's support below but another rounded top resistance area.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Sentiment has been resiliently bearish in the surveys. The recent TSP Talk Sentiment Survey showed 32% of our readers being bullish, and 59% bearish for a 0.54 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. The survey system considers that a very bullish sign for stocks for the coming week, and seems too bearish for a market that is near all-time highs.
But last week's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not part of our website) came in with 27% bulls and 48% bears for a very similar 0.56 to 1 bulls to bears ratio.
So while the charts would indicate trouble ahead, sentiment suggests that if the "dumb money" investors (us) are wrong as usual, the market outlook would be bullish this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
