02/02/26
What a crazy week. We knew going in that it was going to be busy with the Fed meeting, Magnificent 7 earnings, and a potential government shutdown, but they threw in the announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair, a crash of silver and gold on Friday, the threat of war with Iran, another dump of the Epstein files, the protests and riots, and I am probably missing something. The stock market wobbled, but held up rather well considering. Can that continue?
The silver fiasco seemed manipulated as JP Morgan covered the huge short position they had in the metal, right at Friday's lows. The day's range in silver was 74.00 - 118.45. This 5-day intraday chart is the ETF SLV, showing the dramatic move.
Despite JPM's intimate involvement, the decline was being blamed on Trump's selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. He was considered the more hawkish pick as he is not a big fan of quantitative easing, and the implications of potential tightening of the monetary policy made the dollar rally strongly, pushing commodity prices lower. The dollar had been getting crushed recently and is still in a downtrend, however.
Silver doesn't impact us directly, unless you are in some kind of precious metals TSP mutual fund, but a lot of traders were hurt by this movement, and that impacted sentiment and liquidity in the stock market. Of course silver is still up tremendously but look at the trading volume. Clearly there was a ton of buying and selling in the last week, some in highly leveraged accounts, and the price got whipped around as fear and greed ripped through the investment world and made its mark. Then some brokers raised their margin requirements forcing many of these folks to sell these positions.
I didn't even mention the dollar's sharp decline - although it was up big on Friday. Also, bitcoin and many crypto-currencies plummeted last week, and natural gas has gone up 70% in the last two weeks. In the last 8 weeks the NatGas ETF has gone from $17 to $10, and now back back to $17.
Are we having fun yet? While we did have some volatility, the stock market has actually held up rather well considering. Small caps have had a bad stretch, but the S-fund still managed a 2.4% gain for the month, and what a difference a couple of weeks makes.
On January 15th the S-fund was up 5.9% for the month while the I-fund had a 3.9% gain. At the close on Friday, the S-fund ended January with a gain of that 2.4% - still respectable, but the I-fund climbed to +5.9%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) chart is still holding near the highs as we saw a couple of positive reversal days to end the week, and Friday morning's decline filled in the "stealth" gap from January 22 (blue rectangle). However, the bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern is still in the picture despite the solid uptrend. The C-fund also locked in its 9th consecutive positive month.
Yields were up some on Friday after the PPI report came in hotter than expected, but that seemed to be overshadowed by everything else that was going on.
Google (Alphabet) is scheduled to report after the closing bell on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday.
The market seems very sensitive right now despite holding up well. Can it continue to climb a wall of worry, or is it due for some kind of meaningful pullback under the weight of the recent events? The first half of February is typically more bullish than the latter half. The futures are looking ugly on Sunday night, so the bulls may need another turnaround.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) has taken some hard hits over the last week, and perhaps it needed it after being up about 6% earlier in the month. The decline nearly filled in the open gap that we have been eying since it was opened in early January. It is below an ascending support line, and the 50-day average, but as I have been saying, those gaps are strong lures. It's not quite filled but the opens gaps on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were filled, so this may be satisfied. DWCPF is not a highly followed index like those other two indices, so technical analysis can be a little less precise.
ACWX (I fund) took a hard hit on Friday after a big bounce back in the dollar. It is still within its rising channel, but that channel is narrow, and perhaps vulnerable, but if the dollar (UUP) finds resistance at those moving averages after filling some gaps, it could keep the wind at the back of the I-fund.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has been fairly steady over the last week, which seems a little surprising given the crazy news we have had lately. This may be a good sign for the stock market with the bond market treating it all as meaningless noise.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
What a crazy week. We knew going in that it was going to be busy with the Fed meeting, Magnificent 7 earnings, and a potential government shutdown, but they threw in the announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair, a crash of silver and gold on Friday, the threat of war with Iran, another dump of the Epstein files, the protests and riots, and I am probably missing something. The stock market wobbled, but held up rather well considering. Can that continue?
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
The silver fiasco seemed manipulated as JP Morgan covered the huge short position they had in the metal, right at Friday's lows. The day's range in silver was 74.00 - 118.45. This 5-day intraday chart is the ETF SLV, showing the dramatic move.
Despite JPM's intimate involvement, the decline was being blamed on Trump's selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. He was considered the more hawkish pick as he is not a big fan of quantitative easing, and the implications of potential tightening of the monetary policy made the dollar rally strongly, pushing commodity prices lower. The dollar had been getting crushed recently and is still in a downtrend, however.
Silver doesn't impact us directly, unless you are in some kind of precious metals TSP mutual fund, but a lot of traders were hurt by this movement, and that impacted sentiment and liquidity in the stock market. Of course silver is still up tremendously but look at the trading volume. Clearly there was a ton of buying and selling in the last week, some in highly leveraged accounts, and the price got whipped around as fear and greed ripped through the investment world and made its mark. Then some brokers raised their margin requirements forcing many of these folks to sell these positions.
I didn't even mention the dollar's sharp decline - although it was up big on Friday. Also, bitcoin and many crypto-currencies plummeted last week, and natural gas has gone up 70% in the last two weeks. In the last 8 weeks the NatGas ETF has gone from $17 to $10, and now back back to $17.
Are we having fun yet? While we did have some volatility, the stock market has actually held up rather well considering. Small caps have had a bad stretch, but the S-fund still managed a 2.4% gain for the month, and what a difference a couple of weeks makes.
On January 15th the S-fund was up 5.9% for the month while the I-fund had a 3.9% gain. At the close on Friday, the S-fund ended January with a gain of that 2.4% - still respectable, but the I-fund climbed to +5.9%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) chart is still holding near the highs as we saw a couple of positive reversal days to end the week, and Friday morning's decline filled in the "stealth" gap from January 22 (blue rectangle). However, the bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern is still in the picture despite the solid uptrend. The C-fund also locked in its 9th consecutive positive month.
Yields were up some on Friday after the PPI report came in hotter than expected, but that seemed to be overshadowed by everything else that was going on.
Google (Alphabet) is scheduled to report after the closing bell on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday.
The market seems very sensitive right now despite holding up well. Can it continue to climb a wall of worry, or is it due for some kind of meaningful pullback under the weight of the recent events? The first half of February is typically more bullish than the latter half. The futures are looking ugly on Sunday night, so the bulls may need another turnaround.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) has taken some hard hits over the last week, and perhaps it needed it after being up about 6% earlier in the month. The decline nearly filled in the open gap that we have been eying since it was opened in early January. It is below an ascending support line, and the 50-day average, but as I have been saying, those gaps are strong lures. It's not quite filled but the opens gaps on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were filled, so this may be satisfied. DWCPF is not a highly followed index like those other two indices, so technical analysis can be a little less precise.
ACWX (I fund) took a hard hit on Friday after a big bounce back in the dollar. It is still within its rising channel, but that channel is narrow, and perhaps vulnerable, but if the dollar (UUP) finds resistance at those moving averages after filling some gaps, it could keep the wind at the back of the I-fund.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has been fairly steady over the last week, which seems a little surprising given the crazy news we have had lately. This may be a good sign for the stock market with the bond market treating it all as meaningless noise.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
