Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

Sort by newest Sort by date
malyla said:
According to this strategy, one should have made an IFT today (effective COB May 1) into the I fund for the month of May.

Lets see what happens this month - it may work out:D
Click to expand...

as of yesterday cob this method has a return of 2.20% ytd
it is beating the stock funds by ~ 5%
beating the g-fund by 0.9%
and lagging the f-fund by only by 0.09%

this method started the year in the g-fund and stayed thru february
ipted to the f-fund on 4/01 cob
and ipted to the i-fund on 05/01 cob

over at the autotracker 34 people are beating this method
this means to me that this method is not a great one
but it is a good one
 
luv2read said:
what is this called on autotracker so we can find it ourselves? TIA.:)
Click to expand...

There's not one on the autotracker, there doesn't need to be one. I'm looking for people who are willing help to test out ways to improve this method.
 
I base my TSP fund choices on many factors, but the main one is a 50 day moving average. That is fairly similar to basing on the last two month's "best fund."

I don't ever put all my TSP in one fund, so that the risks and gain are diversified, but I use the 50 day moving average to pick my percentages.

I miss the big valleys (and peaks!) that way, but I easily beat the average return and it is conservative enough to keep me out of big trouble.

Lady
 
I've been looking at ways to improve the method.

I tried a proportional approach instead of just choosing the best fund - ie, if the C Fund had a return of 4% and the S Fund had a return of 4.1%, then you would invest the next month with 49% in C and 51% in S. Surprisingly, that didn't work out as well as strictly choosing the best fund. I'm not sure what the reason is ... but it resulted in a return of 100.85% from 2001-2007 as opposed to LMBF method, which turned in a return of 121.07%.
 
Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method talk

FUTURESTRADER said:
C is less volatile than S. S will outperform in a bull market. Somebody post this in Birchtree's account? :)
Click to expand...

I believe that the C and S funds are highly correlated ... ie, if the C fund is up, it is more than likely that the S fund will be up as well and probably by more.

I tried confirming this but my first attempt was disappointing and I'm not sure that I computed it correctly.
 
Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method talk

Dr Faustus said:
I believe that the C and S funds are highly correlated ... ie, if the C fund is up, it is more than likely that the S fund will be up as well and probably by more.

I tried confirming this but my first attempt was disappointing and I'm not sure that I computed it correctly.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. They are both children of daddy Wilshire 5000. C is the slower, chubbier sibling. Theoretically, S will indicate a trend sooner, and again theoretically, C will follow. S will go higher, faster and farther, and likewise lower, faster, and farther. Hence S is more volatile than C.
 
Dr Faustus said:
I tried a proportional approach instead of just choosing the best fund - ie, if the C Fund had a return of 4% and the S Fund had a return of 4.1%, then you would invest the next month with 49% in C and 51% in S. Surprisingly, that didn't work out as well as strictly choosing the best fund. I'm not sure what the reason is ... but it resulted in a return of 100.85% from 2001-2007 as opposed to LMBF method, which turned in a return of 121.07%.
Click to expand...

Since early 2003 I've been implementing a version of the proportional approach that Dr. Faustus is talking about. My experience in the last 5 years has been that I missed some BIG uptrend days by using the approach. I've missed more on the upside than on the downside.

However, I've had to be very conservative in my approach because I've not been able to plan a retirement date with any certainty. For those of you who have more control over when you'll need to withdraw your TSP than I did, you could probably be much more aggressive and use a weighted proportional approach, or an 'all in' approach, for greater gains.

Lady
 
Dr Faustus said:
I've been looking at ways to improve the method.

I tried a proportional approach instead of just choosing the best fund - ie, if the C Fund had a return of 4% and the S Fund had a return of 4.1%, then you would invest the next month with 49% in C and 51% in S. Surprisingly, that didn't work out as well as strictly choosing the best fund. I'm not sure what the reason is ... but it resulted in a return of 100.85% from 2001-2007 as opposed to LMBF method, which turned in a return of 121.07%.
Click to expand...

Right, I have tried many different indicators and none of them did as well as LMBF.
 
as of yesterday cob the lmbf method is up 3.47% ytd

so far this month
s 3.87%
c 2.86%
i 2.65%
g 0.16%
f 0.08%
 
Last edited:
squalebear said:
Can you tell how well it's done MTD to this point ?
Click to expand...

today cob, the lmbf method is up 3.26 % ytd

mtd is 2.09% (0.08% + 2.01%)
lmbf was still in f-fund until may-01-cob
it did a ift after april-30-cob to i-fund that didn't become effective until may-01-cob

so far this month, the s-fund is the best fund (it's betting the i-fund by 0.1%)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
Winning Strategies - Lessons from Top TSP Talk AutoTracker Performers in November
Replies
0
Views
475
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
April Contest in Progress
Replies
4
Views
189
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
502
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - A 2025 Outlook
Replies
0
Views
1K
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: An S-fund Preference
Replies
1
Views
484
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top