08/15/25
The big three stock market indices managed to close flat on the day after a negative open, triggered by a hotter than expected PPI report (wholesale prices.) The small caps give and take continued yesterday with a sharp decline yesterday. After the favorable inflation data on Wednesday that had small caps flying, Thursday's inflation data pushed them down sharply.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
Shout out, and a big thank you to TommyIV (from the forum and author of the Last Look report) for stepping up and coming through on Wednesday night to help me get the daily commentary and Plus Report out while I was without internet and power!
The hotter than expected PPI report (Producer Prices) triggered some broad selling, and the small caps succumbed to the inflationary data, while the big tech stocks saved the large cap indices. Despite the flat returns in the top three indices, many more stocks were down yesterday, than up.
The data was hotter than it had been, and hotter than expected, but looking back several months, it's not any worse than it was from December to March. Yields ($TNX) were up yesterday but they're no higher than they've been during this entire stretch. The one noticeable difference...
... is how much better the stock market (S&P 500) was doing when those numbers came down.
To get into the weeds a bit, it was the services numbers that were higher than expected, and the Fed won't be happy about that. But on a positive note, I guess, the high services prices isn't really tariff related, but some say the price increases from the tariffs are yet to come.
We get the retail sales numbers today, and with signs of the economy weakening recently, it could be a market mover - for both stocks and bonds. Expectations are looking for a gain of 0.5%. Last month it was +0.6%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up slightly yesterday which means another record close for the index. But what does that mean when 5000 stocks were down yesterday, and only 2000 were up? Is this toppy or can the large caps keep on keeping on without the rest of the market? We've seen it before, but eventually...
The DWCPF / S-fund took a big hit yesterday but that 1.2% loss was just a fraction the gains made during the prior two days. It did fall back below two key support lines including the July peak, but it did show on Wednesday that it is not afraid to make a move above that 2400 area. It just may be afraid to stay there. 8^\
ACWX (I-fund) also pulled back with the dollar rallying, but the only damage yesterday, so far, was filling in the open gap from Wednesday.
The dollar may be trying to break its recent downtrend again, which would put pressure on the I-fund if its able to do that.
BND (bonds / F-fund) took a hit on the strong PPI data as bond prices go down when yields rise. It remains above the April peak, which is good, but it failed again to hold above the rising resistance line that it broke above earlier this month.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The big three stock market indices managed to close flat on the day after a negative open, triggered by a hotter than expected PPI report (wholesale prices.) The small caps give and take continued yesterday with a sharp decline yesterday. After the favorable inflation data on Wednesday that had small caps flying, Thursday's inflation data pushed them down sharply.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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Shout out, and a big thank you to TommyIV (from the forum and author of the Last Look report) for stepping up and coming through on Wednesday night to help me get the daily commentary and Plus Report out while I was without internet and power!
The hotter than expected PPI report (Producer Prices) triggered some broad selling, and the small caps succumbed to the inflationary data, while the big tech stocks saved the large cap indices. Despite the flat returns in the top three indices, many more stocks were down yesterday, than up.
The data was hotter than it had been, and hotter than expected, but looking back several months, it's not any worse than it was from December to March. Yields ($TNX) were up yesterday but they're no higher than they've been during this entire stretch. The one noticeable difference...
... is how much better the stock market (S&P 500) was doing when those numbers came down.
To get into the weeds a bit, it was the services numbers that were higher than expected, and the Fed won't be happy about that. But on a positive note, I guess, the high services prices isn't really tariff related, but some say the price increases from the tariffs are yet to come.
We get the retail sales numbers today, and with signs of the economy weakening recently, it could be a market mover - for both stocks and bonds. Expectations are looking for a gain of 0.5%. Last month it was +0.6%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up slightly yesterday which means another record close for the index. But what does that mean when 5000 stocks were down yesterday, and only 2000 were up? Is this toppy or can the large caps keep on keeping on without the rest of the market? We've seen it before, but eventually...
The DWCPF / S-fund took a big hit yesterday but that 1.2% loss was just a fraction the gains made during the prior two days. It did fall back below two key support lines including the July peak, but it did show on Wednesday that it is not afraid to make a move above that 2400 area. It just may be afraid to stay there. 8^\
ACWX (I-fund) also pulled back with the dollar rallying, but the only damage yesterday, so far, was filling in the open gap from Wednesday.
The dollar may be trying to break its recent downtrend again, which would put pressure on the I-fund if its able to do that.
BND (bonds / F-fund) took a hit on the strong PPI data as bond prices go down when yields rise. It remains above the April peak, which is good, but it failed again to hold above the rising resistance line that it broke above earlier this month.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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