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Lakebound's Account Talk
- Thread starter Lakebound
- Start date
Lakebound
Member
Thank you. I just hope to learn more and also to learn to "trust more" in the system. My pull back last week could have cost me just as easily.
Frank
Lakebound
Member
I keep reading a few postings here and there about fear with regard to the upcoming meeting of the Fed and what certain nuances in language could trigger in the market. I read an article this morning that makes sense even to a novice like me and in it a quote stuck out for me: "The excess liquidity created by zero interest is going directly into financial assets, not productive investment like capital expenditures."
I'm not saying that language that indicates an eventual raise in interest rates will not have an effect on the market. It will because like some here, panic seems to rule the day from time to time. But, if we (I, me, you, they) are investing in the market, isn't it important to have interest in companies that are re-investing their capital into growing business?
OK, now go ahead and call me polyanna. I can take it, I'm here to learn.
I just think there are way too many boo-birds out there.
Frank
I'm not saying that language that indicates an eventual raise in interest rates will not have an effect on the market. It will because like some here, panic seems to rule the day from time to time. But, if we (I, me, you, they) are investing in the market, isn't it important to have interest in companies that are re-investing their capital into growing business?
OK, now go ahead and call me polyanna. I can take it, I'm here to learn.
I just think there are way too many boo-birds out there.
Frank
Lol reading this makes me want to IFT in the next 45 min to get the gains today.
Lakebound
Member
As of this writing and near any IFT deadline, S fund is only down .12% and that IMO is to be expected. Actually out of the gate I expected worse. I could live with a close that looks like that while hoping of course for anything on the + side.
This a long ride following a system. There will be ups and downs. Standing by to see how the media spins Yellen's words.
Frank
This a long ride following a system. There will be ups and downs. Standing by to see how the media spins Yellen's words.
Frank
Lakebound
Member
Well, I for one would recommend that you not try doing things on your own and that you seek the advice of one of the Premium services here. I've been in Federal Service for 31 years and of that, 21 years in TSP. Only since January have I ever really focused on my account and have been content with what yields have come from the Lifecycle funds.
If you have a long time to go, I would recommend Lifecycle funds until you do some serious reading and learning. Or, if you want to learn as you go, sign up and pay for a Premium service. I've spent a little over $50 in fees and for me, it has been a worthwhile investment to say the least.
If you don't have a system, learn one or get one. If you don't have the time or don't want to learn, "buy one". It beats making IFT decisions each time before noon based on Fear, CNN, Yellen's eating habits, Putins Botox or how many Whiskers your cat lost on her face last week.
Take control, it's your future. I hope I am not coming off too harsh here. I am sharing my opinion, nothing more.
Frank
No harshness recieved. I have over 22 hrs left. I'm not a fan of the lifecycle funds because I'm afraid of losing money there even though I would probably gain more than doing my own way. I have been thinking about joining does the premium service tell you what funds to invest in and when to rotate them?
Lakebound
Member
In short, yes. The one that I subscribe to (TSP Plus) will send you a daily (weekday) newsletter that gives you direction on what fund you should be in and more importantly why you should be there. It provides a good market analysis for all of the funds that TSP participates in. I would suggest that you give all of the Premium services a look and see who yielded the highest historical returns here on the site.
Sure, there are individuals here who have yielded higher but, they are much more saavy than I am and I for one appreciate having good advice given to me. The other part of this is that once you are given good advice, free or not free .... you must decide to take the advice and follow through.
Good luck,
Frank
But if it is a daily newsletter, and with only 2 IFTs, how do you know which way to invest? Doesn't the newsletter change each day?
Lakebound
Member
Remember, we all are in TSP and we are all limited to 3 IFT's (one back to G). You cannot follow the market and/or a system in TSP and make daily moves like a day trader, it just doesn't work that way anymore. So, you have to be willing to take daily losses with an eye on the bigger prize. Like today for example, you looked at the futures before opening and commented on another thread that today was already a loss. Well, no it isn't really because if you are in the green at the closing bell, you are making money.
Similarly, even if you take a loss for a couple of days in the stock market, if you remain in the market when the bulls come back and begin the upswing, you are making your profits there. TSP is not designed or meant to be a day trader's account. We used to be able to make many IFT's years back but those days are gone. And even still back then, your IFT's were not immediate so you were/are always betting on tomorrow's market opening and close.
In the system of a premium service offered here or, developed on your own through study you are gong to have to stay in the market or on the sidelines in G/F funds until market conditions (long term) are showing signs of either an upswing or a downturn.
I don't know enough about this myself. I am starting to learn how to read charts and follow the DMA's a little closer. But I can tell you this, by following the system on a premium service I have made more in returns this year already than I did all of last year. And with that said, I could simply park in G for the next 8-9 months and be content. But, I'm not content and I want to make money and then hold on to it.
I hope this helps. And I would suggest to you that you may want to look at the premium service or, PM a member that seems to be doing well on his/her own and see what they say.
Maybe I'm too new at this to be giving you advice, just trying to be helpful. I do know one thing, you cannot make money by staying out all the time. You have to jump in when conditions are right and that might mean taking your lumps with the rest of us. Get some advice before jumping in on your own.
Frank
kave
Member
Actually Frank, you pratically have an unlimited number of IFTs each month. It's just that any IFT after the first 2 has to be to the G Fund. Another way to state it is after the first 2 IFTs, the only fund that can increase in value via an IFT is the G Fund. This is why my system has me in the G Fund at the end of each month. Therefore when the new month begins, I have 2 IFTs I can use to move $$ between C,S,I, & F. at that point I then can use however many IFTs I need to either gradually move the gains back to the G Fund or I can move it all in one IFT to the G and then I'm done till the next month.
Lakebound
Member
Valkyrie
Well-known member
also there is unlimited 1% increases. ie C Fund 5.6% can be changed to 6% even after the 2 allowed moves are made
Lakebound
Member
pmaloney
Member
I have only just recently become aware of this 1% increase rule but I am not sure I fully understand it.
I would appreciate answers to a few questions.
As I understand it the 1% increase is like a rebalance so if I have 19.89% in the C fund I can do an IFT changing C fund to 20.00 %.
So if I gain a little the next day and the 20.00% changes to 20.33% can I then do another IFT changing C fund to 21.00% ?
Then if we have a slightly down day and the C fund goes down to 20.75% can I do another IFT to bring the C fund back up to 21.00% ?
Then if we have another good day and the C fund changes to 21.65% can I do yet another IFT and move the C fund up to 22.00% ?
Last two questions. Is this only for increases? Can you go day by day and decrease the % of a fund by about 1% every day it goes down essentially moving the C fund fro 20% to 10% in approximately 10 days?
One more last question. Can you track all these 1% increase move in the Auto tracker?
Thanks in advance for your help. :smile:
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Where might I find that little jewel?
Walt
I refreshed the page before I asked this question, but apparently that is not enough to keep from being late to the party.
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