Kingdom Retirement [Chapter 1 Planning]

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Retirement Edition
Chapter 1
Jan. 14, 2006​

General Information

​

OPM Retirement Services [LinK]-->http://www.opm.gov/retire/

Life After Government [Link]----->http://www.govexec.com/lag/

Retirement Corner [Link]--------->http://www.fedsmith.com/corners/retirement/

Social Security Online [Link]----->http://www.ssa.gov/

 

[Spaf]

TSP / Trader Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Retirement Edition
Chapter 1
Current Position Status​

Feb. 10 2006

TSP Position
TSP: 100% G-Fund.
Market Condition: Correction underway with lower highs and lower lows.

Bonds lost luster with rising interest rates.
Internationals near overbought.

Trader Position
Cash: 100%

 

[Dave M]

Early Out

A story in today's Miami Herald says my organization (NWS) will be offering buyouts and early retirements. The typical requirement to qualify is age 50 with 20 years, which I have as I am 55 with 22 as I stand.

My first guess is that with a standard offer of $25,000 buyout plus a payoff of my unused annual leave would make ~$38,000 cash. With that in hand, I could make the 22% percent of my high-3 plus the SSA supplemental last a couple years, so the TSP could just sit there and grow a while before I had need to make withdrawls.

I'd have to sell my home here in the islands, too expensive to maintain, but that would just add to my war chest and give more time for the TSP to accumulate.

Bottom line, I'd take it. It sure is fun to think about being RETIRED within the next 60 days! No more night shifts, hallejula.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Well it turns out it is not an offer but the plan they wish to use if they ever need to make an offer. The plan must be approved by OPM.

But I decided I need to wait two more years at least. I got a big raise last year which needs time to percolate through the High-3, there is a glut of housing for sale locally due to the storms, probably take a year to sell my house if I put it up today, and my TSP would really suffer during these "out" years if my maxed-out contributions were eliminated.

So let's drink to a quiet year for the Keys. I have had an insurance appraisal and spoken to my agent. I am getting new gutters and downspouts. In the next 30 days I will have the roof inspected, the a/c serviced, and acquire a voltage regulator for the generator which has a surge problem. But now the Pontiac needs transmission work, ouch. You see ths is no time for a placid retirement!

Dave

 

[Spaf]

Retirement Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Retirement Edition
Chapter 1
Current Position Status​

Feb. 17, 2006

Market
Bullish

TSP Position
TSP: 100% G-Fund; Capital Preservation.
Market Condition: Still in trading range, close to overbought.

Trader Position​

Cash: 100%; Don't play a trading range.

Rates and returns
Funds..................2010........L Income........G-Fund.........F-Fund
Feb. 17, 2006.......13.36.......12.00.............11.22..........10.69
Aug. 01, 2005.......12.70.......11.61.............10.95..........10.57
..........................+0.66......+0.39............+0.27...........+0.12

 

[FundSurfer]

Wish I were in the Keys!

...there is a glut of housing for sale locally due to the storms, probably take a year to sell my house if I put it up today...

I have friends and relatives in the keys and the price of property is now outrageous. Prices will only go up, I would not expect a bubble burst to affect coastal areas since ocean front property is a very limited resource. Your house value will probably increase significantly if you decide to hold out a couple more years and should be figured into money calcs.

 

[ayla]

Spaf - May I ask : What does "Don't play a trading range" mean?

 

[yakers]

Market Bullish

Spaf,

If I read this correctly you believe the market is bullish but you are 100% in G? I hold some 40% in G as I am 55 and don't want too much volitility but 100% is so conservative that I would not go there unless I were expecting a bear market at or near depression levels.

 

[Spaf]

Re

ayla,
Having money in range-bound stock represents wasted opportunity. Some short-term traders can play range-bound stocks. However it's double hard with the 1-2 day TSP-IFT. In a trading range stocks are stuck in a up-down cycle mode (see attachment). You have to wait for a break-out, which could last a time. Therefore, (in the mean time) find a fund that is trending up, even if it is the G-fund. If stocks break down you are safe. If up, wait for the first pull back and if it goes up, get on board. Careful for bull and bear traps. Watch the indicators such as the RSI (overbought/oversold) and the MACD to confirm the trigger; when to make the jump.

yakers,
Been expecting a correction that has yet to materialize. The RSI is 59, 70 being overbought. Would rather be 50-0-20-15-15. But I'm not buying in at high levels when we are in a trading range. With account contributions, I'm better off just staying in the G-Fund, at least for now.

Spaf

 

[NASAguy]

My agency has performed the buyout option several times in the past ten years. The 25K will be about 17.3K as they take the tax out the front end. Of course, when you figure in the cost of going to work in gas, stress, clothes, stress, food, stress, the 17.3 looks good!

 

[Spaf]

Retirement web site

The Kingdom of TSP
Retirement Information​

Here is a link to a web site that may be worth a look see!

--> http://www.saveandinvest.org/planRetirement/retirement.aspx

 

[Dave M]

Fundsurfer, real estate is the One True Religion in Florida, we're all believers down here! And yes you are correct: there will no bursting of any bubble in the Keys.

Demand is high because of location, and supply is limited for the same reason. The more millionaires are created up north, the better it will be.

In six months the inventory of homes on the market will begin to shrink. A year from now the general rise will resume. Two years from now it will all be seen as a blip. Three years from now I will be within 18 months of my target date, Nov 2010!

Dave

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
The Retirement Page
March 30, 2006​

There appears to be a change in the winds.

Watching the S&P 500 [$SPX] the indicators (CMF, MACD, S-STO) appear to be turning to the down side. Light crude has been steadly increasing in price. Thursdays close was over $67, well within the worry range.

$SPX has tried to break the 1310 resistance level 5 times and failed.

Transferring funds for capital preservation. 75G, 5F, 10C, 5S & 5I, which is fairly close to the LI-fund.

Rgds, and be careful............... ..................Spaf

 

[Rod]

Thanx for that update, Spaf.

 

[ocean]

The Kingdom of TSP
The Retirement Page
March 30, 2006​

There appears to be a change in the winds.

Watching the S&P 500 [$SPX] the indicators (CMF, MACD, S-STO) appear to be turning to the down side. Light crude has been steadly increasing in price. Thursdays close was over $67, well within the worry range.

Rgds, and be careful............... ..................Spaf

Spaf,

Agreed with you, it showed some uneasy signals. Next stop may be at 1272 from March 9. Hope it would not happen. Anyway, how do I know, I just learned to read charts about 2 months ago.

Ocean,

Ck out www.stockcharts.com They got some neat stuff! Spaf