99percent
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
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Just some reading for the newbies... like me.
- Thread starter 99percent
- Start date
FishinFool
Rising Member
- Reaction score
- 2
Thanks...it seems like he and most other analysts (Kevin Marder, etc) are still saying that they see no immediate sign of a short term pullback. By my technical Newbie Contrarian rule of thumb, this translates to the Dow/S&P dropping a couple percent within the next 3 to 5 days. No?? Sorry, after several straight earnings seasons of analysts bad-mouthing/lowballing estimates in advance, a little cynicism is worming its way in... 
[I did wise up this time and realize what was going on in the ramp up to this earnings season... so stayed in the C/S and enjoyed the "surprise" higher than anticipated earnings]
Partly kidding here, but after really examining the punditry over the last year, I've come to the scientific conclusion that when things look too good to be true, they often are! Suppose I could have stayed in the C/S at least a few more days but this a.m. (even after getting the lay of the land in the House, and noting that the WH intended to approve the short term debt ceiling lift) I got the willies and decided to largely sit on my Jan gains (as in "flee to the G")... until I get the lay of the land Feb 1. Was reading some "Elliott Wave" analysis earlier today and found it interesting.
The S&P will let its intentions be known soon - MarketWatch
I wonder what the general TSP Talk population (esp the vets) think of this kind of analysis? Anyone?
I guess my goal at this point is to try to buy back into the C/S (for example) after the next semi-significant pullback, which hopefully could be done by early Feb. Too bad we can't make even 1 or 2 more IFT's per month (growl). I would like to score 1-2% gain per month in TSP market timing. Why, simplicity itself! Right??
80% G Fund 10% F Fund 10% L2050 as of 01/23/13 EFT and bring on the money trickle!!!
[I did wise up this time and realize what was going on in the ramp up to this earnings season... so stayed in the C/S and enjoyed the "surprise" higher than anticipated earnings]Partly kidding here, but after really examining the punditry over the last year, I've come to the scientific conclusion that when things look too good to be true, they often are! Suppose I could have stayed in the C/S at least a few more days but this a.m. (even after getting the lay of the land in the House, and noting that the WH intended to approve the short term debt ceiling lift) I got the willies and decided to largely sit on my Jan gains (as in "flee to the G")... until I get the lay of the land Feb 1. Was reading some "Elliott Wave" analysis earlier today and found it interesting.
The S&P will let its intentions be known soon - MarketWatch
I wonder what the general TSP Talk population (esp the vets) think of this kind of analysis? Anyone?
I guess my goal at this point is to try to buy back into the C/S (for example) after the next semi-significant pullback, which hopefully could be done by early Feb. Too bad we can't make even 1 or 2 more IFT's per month (growl). I would like to score 1-2% gain per month in TSP market timing. Why, simplicity itself! Right??
80% G Fund 10% F Fund 10% L2050 as of 01/23/13 EFT and bring on the money trickle!!!
99percent
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
I think you'll find the people here a bit more pragmatic than the talking heads. A pull back is coming. It's been a fun month if you're in the game. I went G a week ago and have been watching a lot of people make $. Ouch. I'll probably do just under 2% for the month. But it's gains and thats a good thing.
I think if you identify the big hitters here and follow the Autotracker you'll do well. I don't know what is driving this bull market right now, it's a little weird. But the market needs a correction and its coming. And that's probably good too. Take your gains.
I'll be looking for a place to buy back in in Feb. Yes, 2 IFT's per are a pain but my wife's Vanguard only gets one per 60 days!
I think if you identify the big hitters here and follow the Autotracker you'll do well. I don't know what is driving this bull market right now, it's a little weird. But the market needs a correction and its coming. And that's probably good too. Take your gains.
I'll be looking for a place to buy back in in Feb. Yes, 2 IFT's per are a pain but my wife's Vanguard only gets one per 60 days!
FishinFool
Rising Member
- Reaction score
- 2
Hard core!! Did I say how much I love the TSP Board (or whoever has graced us with double that opportunity to scratch a few shekels from the Wall St. dust each month... and additional safe harbor in non-marketable U.S. Treasury securities)!!!....!11!1!!
