July AutoTracker Trends

[TommyIV]

We’re more than halfway through July, and the AutoTracker activity is showing a real shift in strategy.

So far this month, 103 IFTs have been made by 85 different non-premium members. That means 18 members have already made two trades—a sign of active hands in a volatile environment.

When we combine all these IFTs and compare them to each member’s June allocation, here’s how the average changes stack up:

Average Allocation Change in July

(in percentage points)
G-fund: -2.8 pp
F-fund: -1.2 pp
C-fund: -0.5 pp
S-fund: +8.2 pp
I-fund: -2.6 pp

These shifts tell us that while AutoTracker members have moved in many directions, the standout trend has been a collective tilt toward the S-fund.

But that trend hasn’t held steady.

Let’s split the month into two periods—the first 8 trading days and the most recent 4—to see how sentiment has changed.

Average Allocation Change in First 8 trading days
(July 1 to July 11)

G-fund: -7.9 pp
F-fund: -3.3 pp
C-fund: +6.0 pp
S-fund: +9.2 pp
I-fund: -2.4 pp

In the first 8 days of July was a risk-on environment. Allocations flowed heavily into stocks, especially the S- and C-funds.

Average Allocation Change in last 4 trading days
(July 14 to July 17)

G-fund: +4.3 pp
F-fund: +4.4 pp
C-fund: -5.5 pp
S-fund: -1.2 pp
I-fund: -2.0 pp

This week, we’ve seen a risk-off pivot. Members pulled back from stocks—especially the C-fund—and moved into the G and F funds. Tuesday's action provoked the biggest shift: the average G-fund increase that day alone was +36.9 pp.

Today the S-fund price is set to increase 1%. In this short-term scope, Tuesday was a buying opportunity.

If you're interested in tracking these intraday sentiment shifts and positioning changes, the Last Look Report delivers this kind of data every trading day—30 minutes before the TSP deadline.

Tuesday's Last Look Report

 

[TommyIV]

The few AutoTracker members making IFTs this morning are showing a clear preference for the S-fund. A couple are shifting out of the G-fund, while others are reallocating from the C and I-funds to increase their small-cap exposure. Only one member is decreasing their S-fund holdings today.

 

[TommyIV]

Mid-July AutoTracker Activity Update

As of July 21st, 133 AutoTracker members have made at least one IFT this month.

Their current average allocation looks like this:

G: 34.1%, F: 1.8%, C: 20.0%, S: 32.0%, I-fund: 7.4%

As discussed in the original post, this group has been actively shifting in and out of stock funds as market conditions evolve.

Since the end of June:

• The S-fund has seen the largest increase in allocation. On June 30, these members averaged just 26.3% in S; they now average 32.0%.
• The I-fund has experienced the biggest drop, falling from 12.5% to just 7.4%.
• The C-fund has also ticked lower—from 25% at the end of June to 20% now.

How do these 133 compare to their stationary peers?

Among the 546 members who have logged into the AutoTracker in 2025, their current average allocation is:

G: 36.9%, F: 1.9%, C: 24.0%, S: 27.6%, I-fund: 5.7%

Although members active in July have increased their G-fund holdings, they are still more stock fund aggressive than acitve members who have been passive so far in July.


July AutoTracker leaders:

Coming into today (July 21st), only MRJ and pokerstar629 have a better July return than one could get from a 100% S-fund allocation:

MRJ is up 4.1% in July.

pokerstar629 is up 3.8% in July.

The S-fund is up 3.0% in July.

Both members have used two IFT in July and currently hold 100% S-fund. MRJ also has the best return for all fo 2025 (+32.0%).

 

[rangerray]

Good going!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TommyIV]

The S-fund's benchmark index DWCPF opened lower and was down around 0.5% at the TSP IFT deadline.

The lower offering didn't provoke much of a response from the underinvested in the TSP Talk AutoTracker. Only two members, Crommie and Geaux4it, left the G-fund for the S-fund today. Crommie went to 100% S-fund while Geaux4it added 80% to the S-fund and the rest in the C-fund.

Meanwhile, three AutoTracker members completely left their stock positions today. None of the three were more than 50% invested in stocks, but they all took a full exit to the G-fund of what was invested.

This a follow up to today's Last Look Report

Subscribers can see today's report here.

 

[TommyIV]

July Allocation Trends: A Shift Toward Safety

As July comes to a close, 172 AutoTracker members have made at least one IFT during the month.

The moves have gone both directions, but the overall trend leans conservative. On average, G-fund allocations rose by +20.5 percentage points, while each of the TSP stock funds saw an average decline of less than 10 percentage points.

This signals a clear tilt toward safety—though not a unanimous one.

Of the 172 members:

• 87 increased their G-fund allocation,
• 36 decreased it, and
• 50 ended the month with no change from their June 30 G-fund position.

Even with mixed signals, the average shift speaks to growing caution among TSP investors this month.