JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Too late, we've already tagged the 2015 price level

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Dow futures fall 150 points as Street digests Fed decision

Que?

It was a well-executed trap, Prepare for hi-Vol. at RAMMING speed!!

 

[OBXTrader]

JTH - Thanks for the great charts. Been off the grid for a while and nothing to say sitting in a G Fund. Swore I wouldn't move into TSP stock funds until at least after FOMC, I can let the real good timers make the big bucks. I really thought they would raise the rate. I am disappointed.

Sure looked like the days leading up to yesterday everyone was expecting a lift-off. Bonds down and stocks up, but I wasn't following play by play. This sword of Damocles dangling over rates is not good and injects doubt again in US recovery. The Supreme Court considers world law in constitutional decisions and now the Fed uses world economics. Upside down world.

Dow futures fall 150 points as Street digests Fed decision

Que?

It was a well-executed trap, Prepare for hi-Vol. at RAMMING speed!!

 

[JTH]

Dow futures fall 150 points as Street digests Fed decision

Que?

It was a well-executed trap, Prepare for hi-Vol. at RAMMING speed!!

SPX, W4500, TRAN & the NASDAQ 100 were all at the top of their bollinger bands. After an 8% rally off the bottom, it is perfectly logical to look for a pullback.

 

[JTH]

Good morning for a fresh cup of coffee!

 

[FAB1]

I wish the 8% was in my pocket now. ;swear

 

[rktect1]

I know I am looking for another pullback.

 

[JTH]

I wish the 8% was in my pocket now. ;swear

It's all good, I was down -9.83% off the bottom and have gained 6.14% leaving me down -3.69%

I would have taken an exit Thursday if I wasn't out of IFTs, for now I'd rather ride out the month and go back to my usual IFT strategy of starting out the month invested.

Off the bottom, the PnF SPX .25% box scale shows we have been making a series of higher lows...

 

[JTH]

Rough finish to the week, but there's always a silver lining, the weekly candlestick put in a higher high & higher low.

 

[amoeba]

SPX, W4500, TRAN & the NASDAQ 100 were all at the top of their bollinger bands. After an 8% rally off the bottom, it is perfectly logical to look for a pullback.

AGREED!

 

[JTH]

From 09-16-2015

It's starting to look a little better out there, we're once again within striking distance of the 50% level from July's top to the August bottom. We also have our highest daily close over the past 18 days, with 2 closes above the 20SMA. If this most recent wave isn't finished, then I'm looking for a 2000-2015 price objective, once there, perhaps we'll pullback before surging higher to fill the 2036 hourly gap.

Sometimes not losing ground is more important than not gaining ground. Considering the fact I lost count of the bearish youtubers over the weekend (and the expected carnage) I think we held up well today.

SPX in the PnF .25% box scale created a new column of rising Xs, thus cementing 5 higher Low O Columns and 2 Higher X columns. Still looking for the 2036 hourly gap fill.

 

[JTH]

WARNING

SPX, W4500 & Tran have broken down, signaling a Double Bottom Breakdown. Because the most recent column of rising Xs failed to breach higher ground, we now have a Lower high followed by a lower low. Adding to this, we've breached more than 50% of the 24-Aug bottom to 17 Sep top. Since I'm now active again, I'll be moving the ALPAFS to the G-Fund. For myself, I will stay in due to the IFT limitations.

 

[airlift]

JTH, What is the ALPAF?

 

[Bquat]

So I'll put a line for you at 1916 at a 60/40 chance of holding. OK?

 

[JTH]

JTH, What is the ALPAF?

Just another word for PnF but using SPX, W4500, TRAN & NDX together as a system.

Advanced Logarithmic Point And Figure System (ALPAFS) sort of like Alpo, because it looks like sh!t but your dog likes it!

 

[Bquat]

OK I'll use BETAFS Bill's electronic trading automatic fail system. JK

 

[Cactus]

Thanks for that, Jason! You made me laugh today. :laugh:

 

[WorkFE]

Advanced Logarithmic Point And Figure System (ALPAFS) sort of like Alpo, because it looks like sh!t but your dog likes it!

And if the markets break down that's what we'll be eating.

 

[JTH]

WARNING

SPX, W4500 & Tran have broken down, signaling a Double Bottom Breakdown. Because the most recent column of rising Xs failed to breach higher ground, we now have a Lower high followed by a lower low. Adding to this, we've breached more than 50% of the 24-Aug bottom to 17 Sep top. Since I'm now active again, I'll be moving the ALPAFS to the G-Fund. For myself, I will stay in due to the IFT limitations.

Just a quick follow-up, the NASDAQ 100 rolled over later in the day, triggering a Double Bottom Breakdown. Of the 4 indexes I track, when they all roll over on the same day, it's generally a legitimate sign the sh!t's gonna hit the fan. There are times when it's a fakeout but it's not something I would trade against.

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks JTH. I have lost more money trading against (outsmart) the trend than doing nothing at all.

Just a quick follow-up, the NASDAQ 100 rolled over later in the day, triggering a Double Bottom Breakdown. Of the 4 indexes I track, when they all roll over on the same day, it's generally a legitimate sign the sh!t's gonna hit the fan. There are times when it's a fakeout but it's not something I would trade against.

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[DreamboatAnnie]

JTH, Thank you for this valuable information! ( your post 8179)