JTH's Account Talk

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Reminder: The markets are closed on Thursday, with a half-day on Friday. TSP will be closed on Thursday 28 November

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Friday, AGG gapped up on the open, leaving an unfilled gap for the second day in a row, with roughly an 18-day trading range, we have failed to breakout/down with conviction, currently falling just .07% short of triggering a Double Top Breakout.

For the Bulls, we can see we have 2 double tops, indicating prices have been stair-stepping with the 2nd higher X.

For the Bears we have a lower low, indicating the trading range could be expanding, which is supported by the severely compressed Bollinger bands, where Bollinger Band width is roughly at a 1-year low.

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JTH said:
Friday, AGG gapped up on the open, leaving an unfilled gap for the second day in a row, with roughly an 18-day trading range, we have failed to breakout/down with conviction, currently falling just .07% short of triggering a Double Top Breakout.

For the Bulls, we can see we have 2 double tops, indicating prices have been stair-stepping with the 2nd higher X.

For the Bears we have a lower low, indicating the trading range could be expanding, which is supported by the severely compressed Bollinger bands, where Bollinger Band width is roughly at a 1-year low.
Click to expand...

Interesting look at the leveraged Bond ETF TMF

We can see there is a similar price consolidation to AGG, in this case we show both a Quadruple Top and Quadruple Bottom with a .75% 6-Box 4.50% price range.

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Today we received two price reversals with both AGG & the Transports. As a result, we now have a market board in the green.

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Today, AGG triggers a Double Top Breakout, generating a 3rd higher X and finally breaking above the price congestion. Bear in mind, we still have 1 lower O, so I'm holding out from calling it an uptrend, especially considering that the post 2:00 selloff gave us the highest volume (negative) that we've seen in 13 days.

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Today the Transports triggered a Double Top Breakout with a current price 4.17% away from the 9548.49 price objective. In case you're not counting, we've generated a 6th higher X, with 1 lower O.

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JTH said:
The environment we're in now.

Over the past 9 consecutive months, F, C, & S have closed the month in the same direction, with 6 of those 9 months closing up.

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Click to expand...

Opps, I messed up March & April

Edit: Over the past 6 consecutive months, F, C, & S have closed the month in the same direction, with 4 of those 6 months closing up.
 
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Bonds pop...

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Today, AGG put in a very strong day of positive price action. With the red horizontal line, the closest area of defined resistance is at 110.48. If we clear this area, then I would expect AGG to recapture 50% of the previous major decline in the 110.70 area, and then perhaps overtake the 111.42 price objective. But first, we should look to establish a higher O above O,1. From there, we'll look for the next column of Xs to overtake the previous high. This is an optimistic viewpoint, but I do believe it is viable. Price is currently .72% away from the price objective.

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The Wilshire 4500 tested September's top at X,1

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Are you getting tired yet?

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Meeting seasonal & statistical expectations, the markets forged ahead, finishing out the day flat to positive. There's nothing of particular to note, so I'll share a chart of the NASDAQ 100, which put in the best performance today.

With 4 higher Xs & Os, this index is purring along just nicely. We also see the 4 previous columns of Os have been shallow, indicating demand has been outstripping supply since the column high at X,1. As has been with past pullbacks, I'll look for a ramp up in negative volume, aside from that, there isn't much to report, the markets will float higher until they don't.

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On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 gained 3 boxes in the X,4 column, with 13 boxes, we've exceeded the 2 previous columns of Xs which were 10 boxes each. The 4 previous columns of Os were 4,3,4,3, so if the next column of Os exceeds this, then we might see it as a bell-weather sign to be on the lookout for a pullback.

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For the week we closed 2.03%, for the Month 4.32% with both candlesticks looking strong and closing near the highs. With the holiday season upon us, we might expect shoppers to buy tech and thus far, this Index is not showing any signs of pulling back.

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On Friday, the Transports popped strong into the open, but ended up giving back much of the day's gains and closing flat. With a phenomenal 6 higher Xs trailed by a somewhat perplexing lower O, the Transports have been leading the pack, but based on the overall price action, there might be trouble in paradise. These PnF charts don't always do what I think they should do, we should have created another column of Os on Friday. Based on current levels, I'd expect them to materialize this Monday. Still, a reversal won't take place until we tag 8959.9 which is roughly 10 boxes away or -2.5%

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For the Week we closed 1.14%, for the Month 5.06%. The Weekly candlestick gave back half the gains, indicative of a topping tail where the tail is at least 50% of the body, most folks would consider this a bearish sign, but as always, we should look for confirmation.

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