JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

AGG adds another column of Xs today. With this price move we now erase the lower low, now having both a higher low & high established and the beginning of a trend on the .05% box scale.

Lots of price consolidation on AGG, on the .05% box chart we show one higher X & O. Micronizing AGG down to the .02% scale, we can see we've formed a diamond pattern where we have the lowest low immediately followed with the highest high, afterwards prices meet in the middle.

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[amoeba]

1984-2085? I hope you didn't mean between between now and turkey day - at least for the low bracket; since we both opted into equity funds (perhaps afterwards, but before end of year). My rationale in putting chips in had more to do with seasonality/lack of news than candlesticks.

Consumer sentiment is looking good. I'm hoping for at least 1% in both C+S before 11/25; I'd like to pull even with the G fund for once.

 

[JTH]

1984-2085? I hope you didn't mean between between now and turkey day - at least for the low bracket; since we both opted into equity funds (perhaps afterwards, but before end of year). My rationale in putting chips in had more to do with seasonality/lack of news than candlesticks.

Consumer sentiment is looking good. I'm hoping for at least 1% in both C+S before 11/25; I'd like to pull even with the G fund for once.

It's all good, those levels are based off Fibonacci projections (not time). As for the candlesticks, this lack of volatility works in our favor (with the expansion of the Bollinger Bands needing time to contract), so long as we continue to see declining volume, we should continue to see rising prices.

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[JTH]

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Some interesting price action with AGG today. A strong morning pop produced a higher high but was immediately followed by a sell-off with the bounce failing to recapture 50% of the price move.

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This hasn't happened yet, but in the PnF world, when price triggers a Double/Triple Top Breakout by only 1 X (this has happened) but then immediately puts in a column of Os (this almost happened) it's called a Bear Trap. Another .08 points or -.07% will trigger another column of Os. If you're looking for good news, we have added a 2nd higher high/low and my PnF view here is subjective because it uses the .05% scale.

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For a Bull Trap to be possible, this breakout can only be one-box. Breakouts that move two or more boxes above resistance do not qualify. The Bull Trap occurs when prices reverse after a one-box breakout and the subsequent O-Column moves at least three boxes lower. A one-box breakout is not that strong and the immediate reversal shows renewed selling pressure.
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[JTH]

So we know that for the most part, most of the major indexes have flat-lined and some of them are giving us the appearance of rolling over. At this moment, the down-turn seems fairly obvious in the Wilshire 4500 and the Transports, but the moves have been small and volume hasn't picked up. To date, the S&P 500, W4500, Tran & NASDAQ 100 all still have bullish price objectives on the PnF .25% price scale, so I haven't written them off.

As it stands now, the Transports have a 5th higher X with 4 higher Os and are working through the 5th column of Os. In general, the Transports have larger percentage moves than most of the other indexes, and since I have this index set on the same .25% scale, it should trigger a sell signal faster than the other indexes. One more O triggers a Double Bottom Breakdown, but as long as we can stay above 8959.9's yellow line (a 50% decline off the previous column of Xs) then I remain confident we can work through this latest pullback.

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[JTH]

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The Wilshire 4500 adds another column of Xs today and in the process creates a 4th higher low. The 1067.82 price objective matches the 2014 high, so I believe it's an accurate target. Another Double Top breakout at 1046.44 should really prime the pump.

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[JTH]

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The S&P 500 adds two Xs today, adding to the recent column's higher high. I realize there is no shortage of folks calling a rounding top here and I'm fine with that. We all see the same things, but I'm in a "risk on" position, so bailing out just isn't a viable option if I want to finish the year out strong. Thus far I've been able to capitalize on the position and with 1 IFT and already in stocks, we'll see if I can finish the month out invested...

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[JTH]

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Some interesting price action with AGG today. A strong morning pop produced a higher high but was immediately followed by a sell-off with the bounce failing to recapture 50% of the price move.

Impressively, AGG managed to hold its ground, popping up into the open, then trickling down for the remainder of the day but unfortunately closing below the 50% level from the previous day (giving us an inside day). With today's price action in stocks, I was almost certain AGG would have folded, but it didn't happen. It seems bonds just weren't convinced with today's price action...

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[JTH]

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This hasn't happened yet, but in the PnF world, when price triggers a Double/Triple Top Breakout by only 1 X (this has happened) but then immediately puts in a column of Os (this almost happened) it's called a Bear Trap. Another .08 points or -.07% will trigger another column of Os. If you're looking for good news, we have added a 2nd higher high/low and my PnF view here is subjective because it uses the .05% scale.
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For a Bull Trap to be possible, this breakout can only be one-box. Breakouts that move two or more boxes above resistance do not qualify. The Bull Trap occurs when prices reverse after a one-box breakout and the subsequent O-Column moves at least three boxes lower. A one-box breakout is not that strong and the immediate reversal shows renewed selling pressure.
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[JTH]

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BULLISH SIGNAL REVERSED

Transports triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown today, erasing the previous 5 higher Os with 1 lower O. With 5 higher Xs and 1 lower O, we now have an undefined trend. The new bearish price objective falls inline with expectations.

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NO CHANGE

The NASDAQ 100's 3 higher Xs & Os remain intact, with the uptrend in place. For downward pressure, look for a test of the 2 previous 4173.3 highs at letter B (B stands for November)

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[JTH]

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NO CHANGE

The S&P 500's 2 higher Xs and 1 higher O remain intact. Of the PnF charts I've been posting, this one is the strongest and has yet to create a new column of Os.

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REVERSAL

Today the Wilshire 4500 triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown, erasing the previous 4 higher Os with 1 lower O. With 1 higher X and 1 lower O, we now have a defined downtrend. The new bearish price objective falls inline with expectations.

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[JTH]

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TOP 5 SUMMARY

Today 3 of the top 5 put in bearish reversals.

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BULL TRAP!!!

Today, following the Bull Trap warning, AGG triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown, erasing the previous 2 higher Os with 1 lower O. With 2 higher Xs and 1 lower O, we now have an undefined trend. Trendline A has been broken, but trendline B (an area of previous support twice) may yet hold. The new bearish price objective falls inline with expectations.

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[JTH]

Based off Wednesday's price action, I would expect there's another .05-.10% to lose in the F-Fund (not counting today's price action), anyone who chooses to exit today may want to take this into account.

 

[JTH]

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For the most part, I must be doing something right, since the 7-day C-Fund entry, it is the best performing of the 5 TSP funds.

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MARKET UPDATE

The bad news is that AGG, W4500 & TRAN have Bearish price objectives, the good news is that all 5 have columns of Xs. If you look at the table below, AGG is just .10% away and W4500 .19% away from a bullish reversal.

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[MrJohnRoss]

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For the most part, I must be doing something right, since the 7-day C-Fund entry, it is the best performing of the 5 TSP funds.

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MARKET UPDATE

The bad news is that AGG, W4500 & TRAN have Bearish price objectives, the good news is that all 5 have columns of Xs. If you look at the table below, AGG is just .10% away and W4500 .19% away from a bullish reversal.

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Nice work JTH. A few days ago AGG looked bullish. Since then it's flat-lined, but if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, it still seems like it wants to climb, but just can't make up it's mind. Kinda like this puzzle of a market.

 

[JTH]

Nice work JTH. A few days ago AGG looked bullish. Since then it's flat-lined, but if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, it still seems like it wants to climb, but just can't make up it's mind. Kinda like this puzzle of a market.

Thanks, I agree, the Bond market price action has been perplexing, and hasn't given us the definitive "traditional" answers we've been looking for with stocks. I'm feeling good about the PnF, feeling like it's finally getting tuned into the markets. It's still evolving, but it is closer to getting it dialed in, and hopefully folks will be able to understand the analysis. Reflecting back on this year's mistakes, I think I have the TA skills down, but what I've been lacking is the dedication and focus, it's very difficult to stay motivated with such a time-consuming task. This is why I've been using PnF, so that less time can be spent, while the same quality of analysis is getting accomplished.

 

[Bquat]

Ok you got me listening.

 

[JTH]

Over the past 12 days, the C-Fund has closed down once.

 

[JTH]

On Friday, the Wilshire 4500 triggered a Double Top Breakout with a 1095.86 price objective, which is 4.83% from current price levels. The Index put in a strong opening by adding 4Xs, but retraced more than half the gains into the close. We've been talking about this a lot, the small caps are underperforming and I find it concerning for the overall health of the markets. When large caps outperform small caps during a positive week, this is not what I consider to be normal operating conditions. For the week, the C-Fund gained 1.21% while the S-Fund gained just .65%

For the Bulls, we are working through our 1st higher X, and as we can see from the red horizontal lines, there is some overhead resistance to deal with from the July & September highs. Just how we deal with these levels could show us a great deal about just how far these markets can go.

A performance divergence between small & large caps can only go for so long, before the Indexes need to equalize with one another. For the Bears, we would need to break & close below 1030, this is where we have a 15-min double bottom from 19 Nov and a bottom O where a Double Bottom Breakdown price reversal gets triggered at 1028.31

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[JTH]

With China's rate cut, Pre-markets led the markets into a strong opening. Friday, SPX gapped up on the open, trickling down, then defending the open gap at the 2057 level then recapturing half the day's gains.

Typically, with a gap up, followed with a topping tail (where the tail is greater than 50% of the body) it can be seen as a strong warning of a top, especially when we're already at 52-week highs. But with the trail of price consolidation behind us, we may have done enough to prove these markets are ready to stair-step up into the next level.

For the Bulls, we are working through the 2nd higher X, and may encounter some overhead resistance in the 2095 area, but if we can get above 2084, then I see no reason why we wouldn't tag 2100 by year's end. On 10 Nov I stated " The S&P 500 adds another X to the column today, for the upside I'll be looking for 2085, for the downside 1984, we may need to hit the latter before the next leg up." Those levels were based off rudimentary Fibonacci projections, thus far, I believe those projections are still on target.

For the Bears, we would need to break & close below 2040, this is where we have a 15-min double bottom from 19 Nov and a 50% retracement of the most recent column of Xs. But I consider this to be expected price action and a bit too shallow to be called a decent pullback. A Double Bottom Breakdown price reversal would get triggered at 1997.

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