JTH's Account Talk

[Longstreet]

This would be terrible for my TZA position and for the bottom line. JTH, can you please give your opinion? Tia

I'm not JTH and I'm not trying to be harsh, but I wouldn't dip my toe into a bear 3X fund unless I had a firm grip on what I wanted to do and a strategy in case the markets went against me. Particularly with so much money that it would be "terrible" for the bottom line.

 

[airlift]

I was stopped out on TZA @14.65, I thought Jason's stop he discussed at 14.50 was to low..

I went LONG the SPX, after reading news this morning, the likelihood of FED shaking up the Markets is low..

And Banks will want to rally into month/quarter end..

Did you buy SPY as proxy for SPX?

 

[JTH]

Did you buy SPY as proxy for SPX?

No SPY, I already have enough long positions in the markets, TNA is a bit to rich for my blood at this moment.

I'm not JTH and I'm not trying to be harsh, but I wouldn't dip my toe into a bear 3X fund unless I had a firm grip on what I wanted to do and a strategy in case the markets went against me. Particularly with so much money that it would be "terrible" for the bottom line.

The TZA is a hedge, meaning it's not a large position, just enough to eek out some profit when my long positions are floundering.

I was stopped out on TZA @14.65, I thought Jason's stop he discussed at 14.50 was to low..

I went LONG the SPX, after reading news this morning, the likelihood of FED shaking up the Markets is low..

And Banks will want to rally into month/quarter end..

I placed it at 14.49 because I wanted to give the markets a chance to put in a definitive move, meaning a double bottom breakdown.

This would be terrible for my TZA position and for the bottom line. JTH, can you please give your opinion? Tia

Markets look bullish, but there are reasons I'm not interested in this price action and sometimes things just don't go my way. I try not to get too caught up in the smaller timeframes, I'm more focused on the long-term view.

View attachment 29138

Jason, TZA looking very weak again this morning, I'm thinking we may be stopped out soon.
If FED offers no surprizes tomorrow, as expected, Markets may rally and push TZA to 1450 area, minimum..

Yep, looks like I'll get stopped out very soon.

 

[JTH]

1) Cost basis is at 15.50, just below the the 15.55 gap fill from 5 June (5 days ago)

2) 1st Stop placed @ 14.49 for a -6.43% loss (just below 5 June's low)

3) Minimum Price Target @ 15.89 for a 2.46% gain (previous level of support and resistance)

4) Market's willing, my expected price target is 16.55-16.85 for a 6.78% to 8.78% gain

5) Max expected gain (trend-time based) 17.35 for a 11.94% gain

Quick correction, my stop is at 14.49 (not 14.50)

 

[Bquat]

Markets look bullish, but there are reasons I'm not interested in this price action and sometimes things just don't go my way. I try not to get too caught up in the smaller timeframes, I'm more focused on the long-term view.


Yep, looks like I'll get stopped out very soon.

Ah yes, you diagnosed my problem.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Market will head down because I turned bullish for the SS this past week.

 

[Dutchy]

airlift....Did you buy SPY as proxy for SPX?

Tia, I bought SPXL ETF (3X SPX Bull) Sure hope it works out ....

 

[ravensfan]

Market will head down because I turned bullish for the SS this past week.

Bite your tongue...:notrust:

 

[jkenjohnson]

Bite your tongue...:notrust:

I'm hoping that it does not, but usually it does the opposite of what I think it will do.

 

[BichonFreeze]

I'm hoping that it does not, but usually it does the opposite of what I think it will do.

Well I wouldn't be surprised by a strong market reaction to the FED notes at 2 p.m.....we'll have to wait and see.

 

[JTH]

Stopped out of TZA @ 14.49

 

[JTH]

Funny, many of the common themes such as more energy independence are spouted by Republicans today, 30 years of wasted foreign policy because we never listened to him...

 

[nasa1974]

We don't learn from our past mistakes. We just relive them and wonder why nothing has changed. Go figure.

 

[JTH]

Tomorrow is Options Ex

 

[Geaux4it]

Tomorrow is Options Ex

Indeed- I had to revisit the intended and unintended consequences of Ops Ex

-Geaux

How Options Expiration Affects Stock Prices

 

[JTH]

Approaching another Double Top Breakout...

View attachment 29183

 

[Bquat]

Cough cough. Just dusting off your thread. You must be studying or very busy with military stuff. Just thought I'd check on you.

 

[JTH]

Cough cough. Just dusting off your thread. You must be studying or very busy with military stuff. Just thought I'd check on you.

Sorry my friend, I am somewhat apprehensive with these conditions and tend to post more when I am in the pocket, posting less when in the purse. The daily price swings are low (really low) we've gone 45 days without closing with a 1% move in either direction. The primary concern is watching 1 major down day erase 5-10 days of price action.

1) In 2012 20% (50 of 250) days closed > or < than 1%.

2) In 2013 15.47% (39 of 252) days closed > or < than 1%.

3) This year 12.6% (15 of 119) days have closed > or < than 1%.

View attachment 29217

 

[Bquat]

That's ok the market isn't moving much. Until tomorrow.

 

[Geaux4it]

Thanks JTH for the chart- I find this market in what appears to be a straight jacket. But how the market is turning a blind eye to all the geo-political events in the world, when just 6 months ago, news from China and Greece would tank the market to the tune of ~1-2% in a heartbeat, is truly remarkable. Today the market is wearing 'cement slippers' but hasn't gone over the edge yet.

Someone start pushing..

-Geaux