JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Heck this whole year has been one hell of a rollercoaster, that just doesn't want to be read.

I was a newbie here during the Oct 2007 top, I cut my teeth on pain and misery...

 

[WorkFE]

I was a newbie here during the Oct 2007 top, I cut my teeth on pain and misery...

Yes you did. Hard to believe 7 years have gone by.

 

[OBXTrader]

Interesting how many followed you up a few days back. Today, many moved all-in on the S Fund. I am not that good to call bottoms, especially when they are slow and steady declines. Just too conservative and saving them IFT's. I burned mine early in March on a great round-trip, but loved to see you move in and out like that.

Yea, I know it's not much of a pep talk for those already in, this is a tough spot for those invested. I'm just trying to put a realistic spin on what's going on, unfortunately there's a whole lotta folks getting caught in this downdraft.

 

[JTH]

Interesting how many followed you up a few days back. Today, many moved all-in on the S Fund. I am not that good to call bottoms, especially when they are slow and steady declines. Just too conservative and saving them IFT's. I burned mine early in March on a great round-trip, but loved to see you move in and out like that.

I think only me & Whipsaw jumped in, but perhaps more followed us out. I just try to post the data as objectively as I can and let others make their own decisions. No doubt there will be some folks looking for the fire-sale. Like you said, with only 2 IFTs you have to think out ahead and look for the best setups that put your future positions in the right place.

 

[gronk007]

JTH...you called it for me on Friday...feeling good about being in the G fund today...also feeling good about not try to catch that falling knife.

 

[JTH]

JTH...you called it for me on Friday...feeling good about being in the G fund today...also feeling good about not try to catch that falling knife.

Thank you, going into the weekend, I'm glad I could help cheer you up! You may climb over 100 tracker slots today

 

[JTH]

Epic...(Another 4-letter word)

View attachment 28029

 

[jonfresno]

Epic...(Another 4-letter word)

View attachment 28029

As I'm 50S 50I since mid-March, another 4 letter word right before a two letter word:

f$%& me.....

 

[BichonFreeze]

I was a newbie here during the Oct 2007 top, I cut my teeth on pain and misery...

That just sends shudders down my spine.

 

[JTH]

That just sends shudders down my spine.

I was fairly clueless back then, so it's hard to make a side-by-side comparison with todays action alongside the action from 2007. I will say that many of us tried to catch dead-cat-bounces all the way from 1570 down to 666.79 but failed in many of those attempts.

By the time the March 2009 rally began, many of us (myself included) were too gun shy to hop back on the train.

 

[Birchtree]

I was fairly clueless back then, so it's hard to make a side-by-side comparison with todays action alongside the action from 2007. I will say that many of us tried to catch dead-cat-bounces all the way from 1570 down to 666.79 but failed in many of those attempts.

By the time the March 2009 rally began, many of us (myself included) were too gun shy to hop back on the train.

And I was fortunate enough to never have left the train and did well in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and will score in 2014.

 

[shitepoke]

JTH, did the beer kick in last night and did you form a plan yet ? And, did the target numbers change on yer sig. block yet ? Thanx- been watching yer messages closely and appreciate all the time and sharing you deliver...

 

[JTH]

JTH, did the beer kick in last night and did you form a plan yet ? And, did the target numbers change on yer sig. block yet ? Thanx- been watching yer messages closely and appreciate all the time and sharing you deliver...

I did not drink enough last night, so I'll need to try again tonight, this time I'm sure I'll get it right

I'll know more after the numbers get crunched, so far so good, the expectations of the statistical data have been spot on. I'll also need to re-eval the charts to see if they are still relevant.

 

[JTH]

I did not drink enough last night, so I'll need to try again tonight, this time I'm sure I'll get it right

I'll know more after the numbers get crunched, so far so good, the expectations of the statistical data have been spot on. I'll also need to re-eval the charts to see if they are still relevant.

This is exciting, I have some great data to post for tomorrow's action

 

[ravensfan]

This is exciting, I have some great data to post for tomorrow's action

did not drink enough last night, so I'll need to try again tonight, this time I'm sure I'll get it right

I'll know more after the numbers get crunched, so far so good, the expectations of the statistical data have been spot on. I'll also need to re-eval the charts to see if they are still relevant.

Lead us to the promised land JTH. My tailfeathers have been singed enough...

 

[JTH]

Now that I've gotten the historical statistics out of the way in the S&P 500 Past Performance thread, it's time to focus on the S&P 500 chart.

1) While a bit too early to project, we have a gap fill @ 1774.06 corresponding with three boxes of support at 1, 2 & 3

2) Believe it or not, green line AB is a Linear Line and just so happens to be running parallel with the 6-Month white EF trendline. Based off the highest range of price above AB we can project prices below AB @ 1831

3) From the current 1845.04 close, it's a .80% gain to the yellow CD trendline @ D

4) From the current 1845.04 close, it's a -3.26% loss to the green EF trendline @ F

5) My hybrid indicators show we are at or within 2 days of an oversold condition (meaning we could be very close to a buy)

6) My Quad indicators are within 2 days of an oversold condition (meaning we could be very close to a buy)

7) Volume is still very high across the Indexes and I have seen no signs of an exhaustion of sellers (or a bottom)

For myself, I will not be making an IFT this Tuesday because I believe the risk is greater than the reward. I base this on my charts, indicators, system(s) and historical statistics. At this time (and subject to change based on tomorrow's close) I can estimate a 60% chance of entering on Wednesday.

View attachment 28046

 

[JTH]

Here's a 1-Minute view of today's price action. Thus far it looks like we are putting in a pause day, with a slight negative bias.


View attachment 28049

 

[BichonFreeze]

I had to rub my eyes, am I seeing green in the W^4500? I must be dreaming after these nightmarish few days.

 

[JTH]

Here's a 1-Minute view of today's price action. Thus far it looks like we are putting in a pause day, with a slight negative bias.

I had to rub my eyes, am I seeing green in the W^4500? I must be dreaming after these nightmarish few days.

Once I go into these markets, my preference to be invested starting out the Month of May, so a little confirmation is warranted, or I'll risk either being stuck, or ejecting early. After the recent downside volatility, a pause day is to be expected. The question then become, will we put in a continuation to the downside, or a reversal to the upside. I'd rather be a day late and right, then trying to time the exact bottom and being wrong.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Once I go into these markets, my preference to be invested starting out the Month of May, so a little confirmation is warranted, or I'll risk either being stuck, or ejecting early. After the recent downside volatility, a pause day is to be expected. The question then become, will we put in a continuation to the downside, or a reversal to the upside. I'd rather be a day late and right, then trying to time the exact bottom and being wrong.

This is exactly where I stand, and elected to stay invested, even though my system said get out. I would be stuck in the G Fund for the rest of the month, and unable to re-enter until May. Dumb rule to only have 2 IFT's a month. Perhaps I should have done a clester, and pulled 50% out.

In any event, if you look at how the market has behaved for the past year and a half, it's used the 50 DMA as a springboard to higher prices. The 50 day has been an excellent buying opportunity. I know that won't last forever, "and maybe this time it's different", but I expect it to work, until it doesn't work. So the question now becomes... is this time different?

The markets will soon be telling us.