JTH's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Such a beautiful day to be in the G-fund for myself and Whipsaw (he's brilliant.)

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Thanks JTH!

 

[gronk007]

JTH,
I only wish I had followed you out...I jumped out today and now given the size of the loss I am sure to miss Monday's bounce back...I feel like I've been whipsawed...oh wait.

Nonetheless despite my sick feeling I admire your impressive play over the last week. Congrats to you.


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[JTH]

Well done sir!

Thank you, I can't help but wonder if you've noticed the same thing (as in people only agree with you on 1 direction.)

 

[JTH]

JTH,

It's too early to regret what hasn't happened on Monday, we could speculate you just saved yourself 2% by jumping out. Look at Friday 24 Jan and you can see a similar setup where Monday took additional pain. In my long-term thinking, this could have been your best play of the year.

 

[gronk007]

In my long-term thinking, this could have been your best play of the year.

That is a perfect last post for me to read...feel okay...learned a few things...and Sunday is my 49th birthday...going to enjoy the weekend a hope for the bottom to fall out next week so I can get back in and make up for the loss...

Thanks for all your informative posts JTH


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[Intrepid_Timer]

Thank you, I can't help but wonder if you've noticed the same thing (as in people only agree with you on 1 direction.)

After last year, definitely. I mentioned in one of my commentaries awhile back that a very great year like last year would probably end up hurting most the following year, or years, because they will stay in much longer than they should. The opposite occurs after strong bearish years...............

 

[JTH]

After the a-typical fake breakout on the upper trendline, we received a nice bounce on the lower trendline.

What does this mean?

We are 41 bars into this 52 bar triangle, about 78% which is just past the average. With 3 touches on both sides it's anyone's guess as to the prevailing direction of this pattern. Since we already have the failed breakout and have quickly dropped, then using the measure rule, my guess is a price objective of 900. The azz of the triangle (left side) is 100 points in distance, take that and subtract it from a breach of the bottom triangle and that gets you to 900 (a -10% drop) as of now, it's a -5.9% drop to the 200SMA. I'm not trying to bring you bad news, I'm just reading the pattern objectively based on the current data we have to work with.

W4500
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[JTH]

Interesting perspective from Bulkowski

[h=2]Monday 4/7/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead[/h]

 

[JTH]

Last Friday, the NASDAQ 100 saw had the single largest 1-day price swing over the past 3 years. It could go back even further but my charts don't go back that far and I don't feel like crunching the raw data (yea I'm lazy like that.)

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[JTH]

Last Friday the S&P 500 put in a new 52-week high, then closed below the previous day's low. Highlighted below is this occasion and the previous two.

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[BooDog]

Interesting perspective from Bulkowski

Monday 4/7/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

Seems to be an interesting read JTH. Thanks for sharing.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I've updated my signature block with some great info for Monday's bias.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I've updated my signature block with some great info for Monday's bias.

What do fear, hope & luck all have in common?

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[BichonFreeze]

Fear...hope...luck....hmmmm is this some sort of riddle? I know I know....is it marriage?

 

[JTH]

What do fear, hope & luck all have in common?

Answer, they are all 4-letter words

2nd gap filled...

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[jpcavin]

What do fear, hope & luck all have in common?

Is that like when you're drinking tequila out of the bottle and you're afraid to accidentally swallow the worm and hope you are lucky enough not to?

 

[JTH]

Here's your Pre-IFT pep talk

This is not Vegas, what happens to your account stays with your account. Catching a falling knife is for jugglers and day traders, neither of which we are. Ask yourself if you want to jump into a market where only 2 major indexes put in 52-week highs, then put in a reversal, while the other major indexes have been putting in lower highs and lower lows.

Best of trades...Jason

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[Bquat]

Here's your Pre-IFT pep talk

This is not Vegas, what happens to your account stays with your account. Catching a falling knife is for jugglers and day traders, neither of which we are. Ask yourself if you want to jump into a market where only 2 major indexes put in 52-week highs, then put in a reversal, while the other major indexes have been putting in lower highs and lower lows.

Best of trades...Jason

Thanks very much.

 

[JTH]

Thanks very much.

Yea, I know it's not much of a pep talk for those already in, this is a tough spot for those invested. I'm just trying to put a realistic spin on what's going on, unfortunately there's a whole lotta folks getting caught in this downdraft.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Yea, I know it's not much of a pep talk for those already in, this is a tough spot for those invested. I'm just trying to put a realistic spin on what's going on, unfortunately there's a whole lotta folks getting caught in this downdraft.

Heck this whole year has been one hell of a rollercoaster, that just doesn't want to be read.