JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
I feel like I've been in this movie before, so which one of us suckers is going to burn our last IFT to jump back into the markets?

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Man, I know that as long as I stay out, the TSP will soar. So I have kept my vanguard account intact. Which has been climbing steadily.

But its really hard not jumping into this right now or before COB. Still thinking about it

But you will know my decision because at noon the market will either rocket to new highs or drop like a stone.
 
Since we now have many all time high breakouts in many indexes, March may become a barn burner - not allowing many platform sitters to catch the train as it leaves the station. The faster this rally rumbles forward the faster you gotta run to catch up - that's why I prefer to run the rails in front of the Grand Trunk. I'm still looking for a 70 point SPX daily move soon as well as a 300 point gap up in the Dow - that will create a situation for many shorts to fill their shorts. Soon it will be heard - Get Me In At Any Price.
 
Birchtree said:
Since we now have many all time high breakouts in many indexes, March may become a barn burner - not allowing many platform sitters to catch the train as it leaves the station. The faster this rally rumbles forward the faster you gotta run to catch up - that's why I prefer to run the rails in front of the Grand Trunk. I'm still looking for a 70 point SPX daily move soon as well as a 300 point gap up in the Dow - that will create a situation for many shorts to fill their shorts. Soon it will be heard - Get Me In At Any Price.
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Your big move up won't happen before we get a correction, IMHO. The next major move is down, not up.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Your big move up won't happen before we get a correction, IMHO. The next major move is down, not up.
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fear.gif


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JTH said:
Am I crazy?

The first day of December, January & February were all down...
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Posted this in my commentary this morning:

"Today is the last trading day of Feb and a new month begins on Monday. Will we see the typical beginning of the month bounce, or will Mar start out down just like Jan and Feb did? I just quickly looked back at 2008 and 5 of the twelve months began lower for the S fund while 4 were flat (within 3 points of the previous month’s close). This means only 3 months actually started out higher."

I'm not saying 2014 is going to be another 2008, but if the first day of a new month is any indication, well, maybe it will be...................
 
JTH said:
Short-term Fibonacci projection takes us to 1875 on Tuesday. Notice the SPY Volume overlapped with SPX showing a surge in volume into the close, while SPX throws in a bottoming tail that bounces off the channel.
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Just not seeing it... but I guess we'll find out tomorrow :)
 
JTH said:
Transports: Watch the hourly 1-Month, the last candlestick gave us a bounce off the 76.4 Fibonacci level in conjunction with the yellow trendline.
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Yes, and only one (the first one) out of those three last touches ended up with the transports going up... are you trying to prove my point?
 
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Black swans taking flight...

But me thinks there is still time for charts...:worried:
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Yes, and only one (the first one) out of those three last touches ended up with the transports going up... are you trying to prove my point?
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If you are trying to debate about the direction the markets are headed, than you are debating yourself because I am not participating, nor am I seeking to sway anyone to my viewpoint, if I was than I would have stated what I thought. My last 2 post were simple observations of the data presented, it was factual and not meant to be taken as a theoretical hypothesis of what I thought the markets would do.
 
JTH said:
If you are trying to debate about the direction the markets are headed, than you are debating yourself because I am not participating, nor am I seeking to sway anyone to my viewpoint, if I was than I would have stated what I thought. My last 2 post were simple observations of the data presented, it was factual and not meant to be taken as a theoretical hypothesis of what I thought the markets would do.
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Oh, sorry. Have a great day!
 
Price target update: Since we are in uncharted territory, I'm having a difficult time with the upside projections so I won't post them and just leave the remaining upside price target in place. For the downside price targets, I'll use a 6-month Fibonacci timeframe and show the areas of previous support & resistance. If prices move higher, it will adjust the Fibonacci targets.

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Seems like the Ukraine crisis is driving the pre-market today. Will be interesting to see if it drives the market come open.
 
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