JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Futures have been in the red all night, they pushed lower in the wee hours, not good.

Yea and now im glad I banked 70% of tuesday gains. maybe I should have stowed away 100% but maybe a reversal with come and.save the day. Dip buyers...power Up! lol.

still I get the feeling May came early this year. the ones with near 4% gains this month didnt buy and hold.

 

[JTH]

Yea and now im glad I banked 70% of tuesday gains. maybe I should have stowed away 100% but maybe a reversal with come and.save the day. Dip buyers...power Up! lol.

still I get the feeling May came early this year. the ones with near 4% gains this month didnt buy and hold.

It could still go either way, but this is definitely not the trade I'd make outside of TSP, this outright sucks.

 

[JTH]

I'm going to tell you why I'm still in this market. We can't buy Europe, the Dollar, Metals, or Bonds, they aren't making money. That leaves us with Cash or the American markets. If we can get through these next few days, we could see a decent snap back rally, but I will tells you this. If we continue to see lower lows, I will take my marbles and go home, I'm not going to repeat my 2011...

 

[FAB1]

Due to the apparent overall strenght I admit to ignoring some typical warnings..ex. MACD rolling over wtc. Looking too typical now. im a skeptic with a toe in and no ifts.

 

[jpcavin]

I'm not going to repeat my 2011...

I was just thinking the same things this morning. This feels a lot like 2011.

 

[Birchtree]

The danger is looking back over your shoulder and getting emotional - I don't really like to relive pain, it doesn't help anything. Look to the future for the true market intentions. Companies are still sharing their built up cash and that's important.

 

[JTH]

I hate ROTH IRAs, I wanted to buy some TZA this morning, but the cash I had on hand hadn't 3-day settled, so I couldn't use it. It would have been nice to have hedged today.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hate ROTH IRAs, I wanted to buy some TZA this morning, but the cash I had on hand hadn't 3-day settled, so I couldn't use it. It would have been nice to have hedged today.

Um, not sure why... I have a regular IRA and I can trade like that, no problems... is it a margin issue?

 

[amoeba]

Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

I'm going to tell you why I'm still in this market. We can't buy Europe, the Dollar, Metals, or Bonds, they aren't making money. That leaves us with Cash or the American markets. If we can get through these next few days, we could see a decent snap back rally, but I will tells you this. If we continue to see lower lows, I will take my marbles and go home, I'm not going to repeat my 2011...

So I guess without the American markets, that makes it a no decision (CASH only); IOW - if nothing but losers to pick from, not losing money - is better than losing money - and that would be "more" money in my case. I'm just hoping to end the day outside of dreaded negatory for the year.

And can there please be 48 hours without another crude domestic terrorist incident; not helping the market (not talked about as an influence, yet, but could be)?

 

[JTH]

Um, not sure why... I have a regular IRA and I can trade like that, no problems... is it a margin issue?

Nope, when you sell something in a ROTH IRA you are supposed to let the funds settle for 3 days, that is a key difference between a day trading account and a ROTH IRA. This doesn't always happen to me, but because I sold my TZA at the end of the day, the funds haven't processed yet.

 

[JTH]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

So I guess without the American markets, that makes it a no decision (CASH only); IOW - if nothing but losers to pick from, not losing money - is better than losing money - and that would be "more" money in my case. I'm just hoping to end the day outside of dreaded negatory for the year.

And can there please be 48 hours without another crude domestic terrorist incident; not helping the market (not talked about as an influence, yet, but could be)?

Problem is if you aren't making money, then you're losing money...

 

[bmneveu]

Nope, when you sell something in a ROTH IRA you are supposed to let the funds settle for 3 days, that is a key difference between a day trading account and a ROTH IRA. This doesn't always happen to me, but because I sold my TZA at the end of the day, the funds haven't processed yet.

I have a normal trading account with Optionshouse and I still have to wait for the funds to settle

 

[MaStA]

I have a normal trading account with Optionshouse and I still have to wait for the funds to settle

Yep, same here.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Interesting on the accounts. I use TD Ameritrade and I can trade each day (bought and sold UVXY Mon/Tue and Tue/Wed on the same money)...

As long as I don't buy and sell in the same day (get flagged as PDT, already have 1 in my quiver, can't get to 5 or I lose trading privileges for 90 days)...

Weird

 

[amoeba]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

Problem is if you aren't making money, then you're losing money...

And the problem with making money is that there may not (currently) be a way to make money; oh - well - just as I was convinced this was a breakout to the upside, it wasn't to be.....dagnabit!

 

[FAB1]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

I also was counting on a couple of more good weeks in Apr when SP 1570 was breached as it lookeslike that was all that held the market down.?

what went wrong? I barely avoided worse losses and now all the background noise is sez theres worse to come. Not that I trust most of the buzz.

 

[FishinFool]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

Seems like confidence is starting to bleed out for real. Futures were up .30% with about 20 minutes to market open and then I watched 'em erode to nothing and lo and behold a negative open. There's been so much talk of an expected pullback and "plenty of room below"...maybe it's finally starting to sink in. Let's see what happens after Philly Fed numbers come out...and Google/IBM/Microsoft earnings after the close. If those are generally lackluster it could get ugly. And with that pundit caliber assessment I was about to go start breakfast, now realize I'm out of coffee. The horror!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

Bill Miller tells Barron's that in the next five to 10 years the market will see a long lasting rally in very high quality mega-caps after the 4 year dash to trash. You can buy the best in the market and still outperform for many. many years. I'm holding 20C/80I until who knows when - I have no plan to exit.

 

[JTH]

Re: Nothing to pick from except losers right now......so its CASH

I wake up for this? I feel like one of those endangered baby turtles trying to cross the beach, then along comes a bird who drops a turd on me, and just when I think it's safe to continue, some lifeguard in a jeep runs me over...

 

[JTH]

On Day 1 the markets closed down >-2%
On Day 2 they closed up >1%
On day 3 they closed down <-1%

Over the last 20 years there have been 16 such events falling within this criteria.
Day 4's average return is .29%
Listed below are the returns on those 16, Day 4 occasions.

[TABLE="width: 54"]
[TR]
[TD]4.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-1.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-0.40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-2.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]0.59%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-3.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-2.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-2.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]0.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-0.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]