JTH's Account Talk

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But after that many hits, it might be time for it to bust through...

No catalyst at this point to think we are going down any time soon...
 
Good morning

As for myself, I'm back on the side looking for a re-entry based off the next support level. If we go up from here, I'm prepared to sit it out knowing it is rare for us to finish a month with 8%, the 6% I gained this month is plenty. These charts are drawn based off the recent highs, if we make new highs today, then they will get re-drawn with new levels. In the meantime, you may want to glance at the attached 30-minute charts for an estimate on which areas we may pullback to based of previous levels of support/resistance.

View attachment 20340

View attachment 20341
 
Good morning

The charts are doing what I think they should be doing, although the Transports are doing it faster. It's tempting to make an entry here, but I would cautiously remind others we are only half way through this month, a lot can happen and QE3 alone cannot drive this market up without help from Europe and other positive economic indicators.

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The direction of the dollar may prove to be critical to the the direction of the markets. We received a bounce off a double bottom, as this bounce is in play, the markets should struggle. Once the the dollar's downslide resumes, we should be safe to re-enter the markets. That's one perspective.

View attachment 20389
 
Good morning

Having examined the markets, I do not believe this is the point to make an entry. We are still overbought, overextended, and some of my custom indicators are perplexing me...

15Min
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we are still in a breakout condition. when dealing with breakouts, things can stay in an overbought condition for a while
 
Re: Test

I could make an argument for either side of the tape. While bullish flag/pennate style consolidation does exist (particular in the tech sector,) bonds are choppy (not providing confirmation) and the Transports are downright ugly. We also have less than estimated earnings reports, the truth is this economy is stumbling, and the market is trying to price this in alongside the contradicting QE3. For now, I care about the direction of the dollar. As I said in a previous post, it is rare for a market to exceed 8%, we've already captuure 6% and odds do not favor closing aout the month with anouther 2% (or timing it right.)
 
Re: Test

I'm asking an open-ended question, anyone here please feel free to chime in. On the Auto Tracker I am not able to see the identity of a hidden user, nor their past allocations. if this is the case, then why should these same hidden users be allowed to see our identities and allocations? It seems to me this gives prescription service members an advantage over the rest of us. Does anyone agree or disagree, what are your thoughts on this?
 
Re: Test

JTH said:
I'm asking an open-ended question, anyone here please feel free to chime in. On the Auto Tracker I am not able to see the identity of a hidden user, nor their past allocations. if this is the case, then why should these same hidden users be allowed to see our identities and allocations? It seems to me this gives prescription service members an advantage over the rest of us. Does anyone agree or disagree, what are your thoughts on this?
Click to expand...

The hidden users are not premium subscribers, they are people who haven't logged into the AT in a very long time (maybe 90 days?)...
 
Re: Test

FireWeatherMet said:
I for one am grateful for you sharing your information so freely over the years. Between some of your write-ups, and Toms and a few others, it has been a great learning experience.
Click to expand...

Thanks FWM I myself enjoy posting thoughts on the market, regardless of which IFT positions we choose. I always find it interesting to read the perspectives we each bring to the table, it says a lot about our personality.

RealMoneyIssues said:
The hidden users are not premium subscribers, they are people who haven't logged into the AT in a very long time (maybe 90 days?)...
Click to expand...

Thanks RMI I haden't been around much, and didn't know that's what had happened. I'll be straight up honest with you, I understand the need to keep the paid services private, but for the everything else that's public, I want access to it all, every bit of it goes into my head to help be base my decisions.
 
My quote from Tom's TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up Blog "Tom, for the Transports, that's the highest level of volume we've seen since the June bottom, if we put in a reversal on Monday, I may just be forced to jump in, how about you?"

And here's the chart I'm referring to.

View attachment 20415
 
Eyeing the gap on the 30min Transports, would like to see it get filled this week.
 
Good morning

This is going to be a tough nut to crack, usually my perspectives are precise, now mind you on not confused, the markets are. Stocks appear to be holding, bonds performing, and the Transports possibly gearing up for a snapback retracement. Based on my IFT strategy, my preference is to make an entry this week and as of this moment I don't know if it will be today. I'm not convinced we necessarily need to pullback from these levels, I'm more concerned about an October surprise than I am about this week's action. If a legitimate pullback were to take place, I'm looking for the 1st week of October to give us a clue.

30min Charts

View attachment 20432
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Today the market answered some of our questions while at the same time leaving some unanswered, It's funny how things work out like that. The transports put up up a good turnaround today, but not enough for me to warant an IFT. On the 30 minute charts I'm looking for a close above that lonsome spike where she tried to rally, but ran out of gas. On the daily chart I've highlighed in yellow where I would expect a triangle breakout to the upside. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong, so long as I manage the trade accordingly.

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Re: Test

Cactus said:
Wow! What persuaded you to jump in? Are you expecting a jump up later this week?
Click to expand...

Short answer "it depends." While my indicators still show up as overbought, we have to consider that at some point in time an uncorrected overbought condition becomes an embedded condition capable of building additional momentum from its current condition in which case it becomes a "risk on" scenario. I'm not predicting the direction here, but I have seen enough evidence to convenience me that a pullback from these levels may not materialize. Given this is the last week of September and I still have 1 IFT, I'm willing to accept some additional risk here, to see if the end of month buying pans out.
 
Interesting start to the markets, no surprises yet, as of late, the first half of the day has not been a predictor of the second half. That certainly makes it more difficult to time out IFTs.
 
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