JTH's Account Talk

[Happy_Trails]

I'm seriously considering using the cross of price above and below the 100SMA for my decisions in the future. Buy when price moves above the 100SMA and sell when price moves below. Everything else is noise...

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You should do very well following a strategy like this. The only problem could be whipsawing around the average. With our limited IFTs, you might just check in once a month or every two weeks and ignore any changes to the upside or downside that happen in between.

 

[FAB1]

You should do very well following a strategy like this. The only problem could be whipsawing around the average. With our limited IFTs, you might just check in once a month or every two weeks and ignore any changes to the upside or downside that happen in between.

I teased him but actually following that rule appears to avoid a lot of pain. There are only a couple of instances where moving to soon would have cost you but it always seems to take you out of the line of fire. Excellent gains when stocks are above the line.

 

[Appatite]

I will also continue to follow your reports. Today though I am now mostly out of the S fund. Had to make the move.

 

[Happy_Trails]

I teased him but actually following that rule appears to avoid a lot of pain. There are only a couple of instances where moving to soon would have cost you but it always seems to take you out of the line of fire. Excellent gains when stocks are above the line.

I like these kinds of trendfollowing ideas. I think a big key would be to consistently follow the signal (sounds simple but can be hard) and ignore the noise in between signals. Just set it and forget it for two weeks or a month. Go out and have fun and don't watch the market (easier said than done).

 

[jpcavin]

I teased him but actually following that rule appears to avoid a lot of pain. There are only a couple of instances where moving to soon would have cost you but it always seems to take you out of the line of fire. Excellent gains when stocks are above the line.

100 days is a long time to be in or out. This is treading into Birch territory. :laugh: Not saying it's good or bad but don't you guys always give Birch a hard time for being a buy and hold kinda guy?

 

[Appatite]

100 days is a long time to be in or out. This is treading into Birch territory. :laugh: Not saying it's good or bad but don't you guys always give Birch a hard time for being a buy and hold kinda guy?

I always saw him as a buy, buy and buy more kind of guy, not buy and hold.

 

[jpcavin]

I always saw him as a buy, buy and buy more kind of guy, not buy and hold.

If you buy, buy, buy and don't sell, isn't that buy and hold? Just of play on words, but still....

 

[amoeba]

Thanks everyone, it's good to have some humor as we work through this mess. JP the 20, 50, & 200 MAs are the most important because they are the most universally watched. It's all a big joke really, as they are just numbers but for some reason we assign these numbers some level of importance over other numbers.

Perhaps for breakouts, but the last two turns (downward) in the S-fund index were between the 20 and 50 EMA, the one before that was below the 20 EMA, and every other short term peak this year was above the 20 EMA.

Not to say that there aren't other factors - but if it's just price and momentum - it looks like to me the S-fund is primed to go south, once again. This year - it seems the pattern is that the end of an upswing is signaled by any two consecutive down days. Today is one - and to me - an ominous one because it is a low-volume friday.

But you did not book this week's gains - so you must be feeling lucky. Do you? and why? Was it the higher volume buying wed-thurs or some other factor? Are you looking to the 50 EMA, for example?

Personally - I'm feeling in the dark. I'm a little shell-shocked from last year's bottom when I tried to trade into this sort of bottoming volatility and got my hat handed to me, so I'm more of a listener and watcher right now.

 

[Birchtree]

There is now 2.05 trillion dollars sitting in corporate cash waiting for some place to go - that could really kick start the bull to the moon. Be in to win.

 

[JTH]

Thanks everyone, I was surprised to see all the replies today. "You like me, you really like me"

 

[Appatite]

If you buy, buy, buy and don't sell, isn't that buy and hold? Just of play on words, but still....

I just don't know how he does it. Wen I am 100% bought into something, I never have more money to buy more. I have to sell something first.

 

[PessOptimist]

Speaking of the moon, isn't it waning right now. That means the market??? I never can remember. Where's the alien?

 

[jpcavin]

I just don't know how he does it. Wen I am 100% bought into something, I never have more money to buy more. I have to sell something first.

I wondered that myself since the dividends get reinvested. I guess that would be buying on margin? Borrowing against your investment to make purchases? I'm too green to understand it.

 

[Happy_Trails]

100 days is a long time to be in or out. This is treading into Birch territory. :laugh: Not saying it's good or bad but don't you guys always give Birch a hard time for being a buy and hold kinda guy?

Your in if price is above the 100 day and out if price falls below the 100 day so, no not buy and hold. Whipsawing could happen around the 100 day as price moves back and forth around it. So, I would check the level every two weeks or once a month and make a buy/sell decision at that point. David Williams put together a really nice spreadsheet for a system like this based on the 10 month simple moving average.

 

[Birchtree]

Dividends add to buying power also. Margin is the way to go if you have enough confidence to leverage up your game. Everyone is deleveraging and I'm going in the opposite direction. When you use margin your equity position is the collateral to lend against and if your equity grows you can borrow more up to 50%. The interest charged (2.75%) is tax deductable and offsets my 15% tax on qualified dividend income - it works out fairly well. The whole idea is to be able to accumulate more assets with the leverage and then hope the assets gain in value for capital appreciation and increased dividend income. I'm developing a self-feeding system. But when the market drops 2,000 points you have to run like hell to stay in front of the margin call knock at the door. I was prepared because I built my sacrificial lamb chop account and eventually had to make some sales to cover my butt. I'm sharing my style because it's a real life experience.

 

[KevinD]

Birch - Is it true that your broker can lend out your shares for someone else to short thereby working against you, their client? I guess the other party is their client too...

 

[Birchtree]

Yes that is true - it increases their level of inventory but doesn't bother me as usual business.

 

[JTH]

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[Sensei]

Looks like the 20 day has bottomed and is primed to make an assault on the 50 day. This is the SMA, right? I went back to Tom's blog from today to compare with the EMA of the S&P. Doesn't look quite so pronounced as this. Definitely an intriguing visual though. Doesn't make me feel good about my position in F.:worried:

 

[JTH]

Looks like the 20 day has bottomed and is primed to make an assault on the 50 day. This is the SMA, right? I went back to Tom's blog from today to compare with the EMA of the S&P. Doesn't look quite so pronounced as this. Definitely an intriguing visual though. Doesn't make me feel good about my position in F.:worried:

You are correct this is the 20SMA, I'll tell you one thing I am optimistic about. The government will find a way to screw up this rally...