JTH's Account Talk

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0-10% is a consolidation. Over 10% is a correction. Anything over 20% is a freakin bear market.
 
Re: HELP JTH, I need another S-fund quote/charting link

amoeba said:
looks like the prior link you posted at one time, HERE

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/lookup.asp?lookup=DWCPF&country=US



with all the fancy charting options doesn't work anymore; did the symbol change recently? if so....to what? what do you use nowadays for the S-fund? Thx
Click to expand...

Funny I don't recall using that website for charting purposes.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49987911282
 
Birchtree said:
0-10% is a consolidation. Over 10% is a correction. Anything over 20% is a freakin bear market.
Click to expand...

Thank you BT, I think that is a fair and accurate description of what the standards should be as we speak about this within this forum, although I like the word pullback better than consolidation (tit for tat.)
 
From my last blog "My interpretations tell me there are lower prices to be had, therefore I'll wait for perhaps a better buying opportunity." That statement held true today, and I have reason to believe the bottom is still not in. Let's not be so pompous as to pretend this is going to promptly work itself out in a week. Don't force the trade if it's not there, you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, you don't pull the mask off the ol Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Mr. Market. Chime in...
 
JTH said:
From my last blog "My interpretations tell me there are lower prices to be had, therefore I'll wait for perhaps a better buying opportunity." That statement held true today, and I have reason to believe the bottom is still not in. Let's not be so pompous as to pretend this is going to promptly work itself out in a week. Don't force the trade if it's not there, you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, you don't pull the mask off the ol Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Mr. Market. Chime in...
Click to expand...

I have no reason to believe the bottom is in either. We got confirmation today that we are in a downtrend. You don't bet the Bank on any given day. This would be a great time with unlimited IFT'S to say put 20% into equities tomorrow, another 20% when we breach that level, another 20% when we breach that level, another 20% when we breach that level etc.. You all get the point but NOoooo, We have to work with 2 IFT'S per month so the best we or I can do is Hit the Equities twice with whatever percentages I or we feel good with.

Sure we can get a surprise to the upside and If that was me I would sell into it and wait for the better pricing which imo is coming.

Hey JTH,

I need you to move in if I'm ever going to catch up with you. :D

I see your keeping the almost 5% spread between us, lol... :toung:
 
poolman said:
I see your keeping the almost 5% spread between us, lol... :toung:
Click to expand...

Don't think I haven't noticed you're in the top 50 again, I've noticed a few others gaining off the last G-Fund rise as well. I've always known that for some reason beyond my comprehension, that my defense is better than my offense, and I have a feeling you put yourself in that camp too. This is perhaps going to be the most important trade of the year. The difference between a hero & a zero can be just 1 trade away. If this were a standard pullback than I'd be telling everyone today & tomorrow are the day to buy in for a 3-7 day play. The problem is I'm not certain this is a standard pullback, and my 9.35% edge over the S-fund gives me some wiggle room to patiently wait for confirmation.
 
JTH said:
Don't think I haven't noticed you're in the top 50 again, I've noticed a few others gaining off the last G-Fund rise as well. I've always known that for some reason beyond my comprehension, that my defense is better than my offense, and I have a feeling you put yourself in that camp too. This is perhaps going to be the most important trade of the year. The difference between a hero & a zero can be just 1 trade away. If this were a standard pullback than I'd be telling everyone today & tomorrow are the day to buy in for a 3-7 day play. The problem is I'm not certain this is a standard pullback, and my 9.35% edge over the S-fund gives me some wiggle room to patiently wait for confirmation.
Click to expand...
Very Nicely worded JTH,
You are absolutely right in saying mine and yours Defense if better than our Offense. So True that this next trade could be the most important for some time to come.
I'm thinking when the trend does change back to positive it will be a Huge day but I'm not sticking my +8% on the line in hopes of that. Yea we may have a +200 point trend reversal day but we might also need to lose another 200 points before that day.

Definately much thought and hopefully wisdom will be behind this next trade.

Good Luck!
 
For anyone who is wondering, for the last 4-5 days I have thought that I will make an IFT into the S-Fund on Thursday, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen, and if it were to happen it may be another short play. My systems have yet to align with each other, when they do, it will mean I believe price is fairly valued for the levels we are at.
 
OPEC is on the ropes with no one in charge - let each individual pump that oil. It's time for Iraq to step up.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
What difference would Iraq make? They have no obligation to US... It's not like they will pay us back...
Click to expand...

All they have to do is sell more oil on the world market. We buy oil on the world market - and we sell oil on the world market. Did you know that;). Not too well known. Lots of Alaska oil heads off to Japan, Korea, and probably China. While I am a rather conservative guy - and do think we should 'Drill, Baby, Drill' - I know that some of that oil will be heading out of the states. It will go to the highest bidder.

So, yeah, if Iraq pumps more oil there will be more float.

A rising tide of oil float all boats:D
 
JTH, PoolMan,

Lots of da'Boyz on this site are pulling the trigger. And, your fingers' are on the Big Red Button.

I pushed it today.
Probably a bit early.
I've been off all year.
But, you have to be in to win!!!
 
Boghie said:
JTH, PoolMan,

Lots of da'Boyz on this site are pulling the trigger. And, your fingers' are on the Big Red Button.

I pushed it today.
Probably a bit early.
I've been off all year.
But, you have to be in to win!!!
Click to expand...

Making my move now Buddy. :nuts:
 
poolman said:
Making my move now Buddy. :nuts:
Click to expand...

Oh no, PoolMan...
Don't put that pressure on me!!! :sick:

Talk to CoolHand regarding my trading acumen and techniques.

Summary:
  • Don't Have One
  • Trade when it feels right.
BTW, I know you're not following my move. Just funny:laugh:. I'm just happy to be in when you are in...
 
Boghie said:
Oh no, PoolMan...
Don't put that pressure on me!!! :sick:

Talk to CoolHand regarding my trading acumen and techniques.


Summary:
  • Don't Have One
  • Trade when it feels right.
BTW, I know you're not following my move. Just funny:laugh:. I'm just happy to be in when you are in...
Click to expand...

lol, Your Funny... ;)
 
PoolMan,

Like I mentioned to Amoeba, I wish I had more in the 'G Fund' waiting for a chance to invest. I think I would have stepped it in like you were talking about. This is a rather risky environment to be 100% in - and, such moves have hurt me in the past - for example 2008; I would have been positive had I not made a single move that proved dumb after the first big downturn.

Still trying to learn the actual 'science' part of investment.

All I know is that in my situation (only 20% in G) it is rather useless to step in. You are in a nice situation. 50% in to catch a reversal, 50% out to buffer more volatility.

Lesson Learned;)
 
Boghie said:
PoolMan,

Like I mentioned to Amoeba, I wish I had more in the 'G Fund' waiting for a chance to invest. I think I would have stepped it in like you were talking about. This is a rather risky environment to be 100% in - and, such moves have hurt me in the past - for example 2008; I would have been positive had I not made a single move that proved dumb after the first big downturn.

Still trying to learn the actual 'science' part of investment.

All I know is that in my situation (only 20% in G) it is rather useless to step in. You are in a nice situation. 50% in to catch a reversal, 50% out to buffer more volatility.

Lesson Learned;)
Click to expand...

Thanks Boghie,

Market's imo have come down enough where I can work with this. What you said above is exactly right. I learned this lesson long ago but sometimes depending on the situation it's fine to go 100% but not right now.
I think it's nice of you to try and mentor amoeba.. He will learn eventually..

Take Care, Buddy:)
 
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