JTH's Account Talk

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nnuut said:
Would that be toward a sell or buy? :confused:
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Honestly I don't know, this isn't data I've been tracking to figure out what (if any) the correlation is between the dividend payment and the daily returns from that day. I'll add it to my list of things to study.
 
JTH said:
Ok, I realize it's ugly out there, so I'll try to give an optimistic view for you. The second system I mentioned last night has not triggered a buy yet and it may not (by my definition), call me crazy but I believe the bottom is in at these levels. Yes I know the futures are down hard as I write this, but hey it is what it is. Many of the indexes did not put in a lower low and some closed in the green. The previous 18 April low I mentioned in my blog 2 weeks ago has not been violated. The trend channels I draw have not been violated, the MTV indicators have not gone downside embedded, nor put in lower lows. Sure it ain't great, but we are treading water, not drowning. We've lost roughly 6% but it's been over 17 days. I do need to see a close back over the September trendline at SPX 1332 tomorrow. If you're down on this position, keep your chin up and watch the reaction off the previous 18 April swing low.
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That was a good call with a good entry at those levels where money has been made. However, those same words don't hold true today. Based on what I see at this moment, I would not recommend making an entry into the markets tomorrow. I'm not right every time, but for my own personal risk I'm staying out until I feel I can get a better entry point based on the investing setups I look for.
 
JTH said:
That was a good call with a good entry at those levels where money has been made. However, those same words don't hold true today. Based on what I see at this moment, I would not recommend making an entry into the markets tomorrow. I'm not right every time, but for my own personal risk I'm staying out until I feel I can get a better entry point based on the investing setups I look for.
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Are you only looking for a long entry, or are you open to short entries?
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Are you only looking for a long entry, or are you open to short entries?
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The last time I shorted something I got burned real bad. Maybe bad karma or something, but on principle I don't like to short. I'm just not looking for an entry at these current levels, if a better setup presents itself I'll take an entry, but I don't want to force what's not there.
 
JTH said:
The last time I shorted something I got burned real bad. Maybe bad karma or something, but on principle I don't like to short. I'm just not looking for an entry at these current levels, if a better setup presents itself I'll take an entry, but I don't want to force what's not there.
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I understand. I am shorting right now (through an ETF) and am nervous, but ok so far with slide to the downside as I DCA'd on the way down and expect it to jump here real soon.

I hope I don't get burned, but it sure can happen. Good luck to us both. :nuts:

Thanks for the reply :)
 
JTH, You are one of the best posting charts. Do you keep past charts or delete them after a month or two? The reason I ask is I would be curious what the June 2010 charts (CSI) look like. Last June was a fund killer. Thanks.
 
Ah, yes wonderful chart man.:)

Is this just a reaction to the double top yesterday or do you feel this may become more of a correction? We just hit the top of the old declining channel and needed to break 1351 to break out. Is this just profit taking for one day and we try again? Inquiring minds would like your thoughts. Ok "I" was just looking for a heads up.:D
 
JTH said:
The last time I shorted something I got burned real bad. Maybe bad karma or something, but on principle I don't like to short. I'm just not looking for an entry at these current levels, if a better setup presents itself I'll take an entry, but I don't want to force what's not there.
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I'm just going to ride this F-train until I find an entry.
 
nasa1974 said:
JTH, You are one of the best posting charts. Do you keep past charts or delete them after a month or two? The reason I ask is I would be curious what the June 2010 charts (CSI) look like. Last June was a fund killer. Thanks.
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Sorry friend, I don't keep chart data around, and I lost a PC and lost much of the back-tested data I had. My impression is there are just way too many factors to consider, making it difficult to find a correlation from June 2010. You have made a valid point, that I should start collecting charts and I think I will.

Bquat said:
Ah, yes wonderful chart man.:)

Is this just a reaction to the double top yesterday or do you feel this may become more of a correction? We just hit the top of the old declining channel and needed to break 1351 to break out. Is this just profit taking for one day and we try again? Inquiring minds would like your thoughts. Ok "I" was just looking for a heads up.:D
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My analysis remains the same as what I posted in my blogs. The trend is still up within the 6-month window, and as long as we stay above the April 18th low, I'll hold to this assertion.

mayday said:
I'm just going to ride this F-train until I find an entry.
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You are wise my friend, and I think you get the point of my post last night. Just because we have a fresh set of IFT's doesn't mean we need to use them. You're position is in an uptrend, and the risk is minimal when compared to the current risk in stocks.
 
There are plenty of charts from a year ago right here in this thread. Go check out the posts in the high 900's. They are from May/June 2010...
 
So we had a bad day, I'm not happy either, but the reality is this market isn't ready to resume the upside. I choose to accept this because I'm a mortal man who can't will the market's direction, nor can I will myself into a better position from a bad one. Certain things are out of my power and my acceptance of this fact is what makes me a better trader. As I've said before (and yes I'll say it again) this is a bull market, the S&P 500 has fallen 4.14% from the recent top, in the grand scheme of things this isn't even a blimp on the radar. JTH steps on his soap box: Before we make an entry we should have already known our upside/downside exits.

View attachment 14043
 
Blood in the streets, don't get in the way of a moving train, it has too much momentum. Catching a dead cat on a downtrend is ill-advised.
 
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