JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Well JTH has this turned into the proverbial falling knife?

While I do believe the market is on a hard-sell, I don't have enough data to provide me the confirmation I'm looking for. Mr. Market has a funny way of revealing just enough to let you ask more questions. For the moment this is nothing more than a (within acceptable range) pullback.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/equities-running-out-of-breadth

 

[JTH]

So far this morning, I'm seeing what I call a pause, no reason to jump in just yet. If you're thinking of jumping in, what's your reason? Have you found confirmation we won't go lower?

 

[weatherweenie]

So far this morning, I'm seeing what I call a pause, no reason to jump in just yet. If you're thinking of jumping in, what's your reason? Have you found confirmation we won't go lower?

Good earnings, and good economic news isn't giving much of a boost.

 

[Birchtree]

Well Captain Optimism, I would think the good news from GE says the global economy is just fine. That's enough confirmation for me. What if we take out SPX 1300 - will that excite you.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing. Dead cat bounce with a late sell off today and Monday. I've got an IFT to burn, so I'm looking at maybe Tuesday for another quick buy and sell.

 

[fedgolfer]

So far this morning, I'm seeing what I call a pause, no reason to jump in just yet. If you're thinking of jumping in, what's your reason? Have you found confirmation we won't go lower?

Another crappy thing about TSP IFTs, the best confirmations seem to happen at the end of trading day or week, well after the IFT deadline. Then the next trading day, the AM indicators always seem to straddle the fence... by then we TSP'ers have lost two trading days and have to go off something we don't see, usually an unfulfilled pattern. With only two IFTs, you'd think they'd extend the deadline to 4 PM EST. Why can't they?

 

[KevinD]

So far this morning, I'm seeing what I call a pause, no reason to jump in just yet. If you're thinking of jumping in, what's your reason? Have you found confirmation we won't go lower?

You calling a top? Have you found confirmation we will go lower?

 

[JTH]

Good earnings, and good economic news isn't giving much of a boost.

When the markets ignore good news, it tells me it's pricing in something I don't know about.

Well Captain Optimism, I would think the good news from GE says the global economy is just fine. That's enough confirmation for me. What if we take out SPX 1300 - will that excite you.

Three P&F words: Double Top Breakout

But have you seen the size of this gap?

View attachment 10493

Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing. Dead cat bounce with a late sell off today and Monday. I've got an IFT to burn, so I'm looking at maybe Tuesday for another quick buy and sell.

You & I are thinking the same thing.

With only two IFTs, you'd think they'd extend the deadline to 4 PM EST. Why can't they?

That's a good question, I would love to see them extend the deadline, it would give me a HUGE advantage.

You calling a top? Have you found confirmation we will go lower?

I'm not calling anything for the moment, but I do think this market is meeting my expectations. When we see me use my last IFT, that will mean I think the bottom is in..

 

[JTH]

Tempting as it may seem, I won't IFT into the markets today. However, I have purchased some Mutual Funds covering the NASDAQ 100, Metals & Mining, and the Wilshire 4500.

 

[Birchtree]

I read where GE plowed a 66% gain in their transportation sector - somebody has plans for the future. I would not be surprised to see a semi-panic push to Dow 12,000 and SPX 1300 before the close. The 1400 level is on my horizon. Whether we spike higher as a blow off top or we grind higher makes no difference to an investor. But with QE2 still dumping cash into the market we will go much, much higher.

 

[FAB1]

Tempting as it may seem, I won't IFT into the markets today. However, I have purchased some Mutual Funds covering the NASDAQ 100, Metals & Mining, and the Wilshire 4500.

Cant blame you, as a Friday IFT would have been needed to catch whatever the market gains today.

Even a dead cat can bounce, they say.

 

[JTH]

I'm still 100% G-Fund.

Came close to pulling the trigger today, with an IFT of 100% S-Fund. I do see some indications the bottom is in, but I'm hesitant to jump in prior to the pending news-driven events. When you jump in prior to a news event, three things can happen and 2 of those three aren't good. It's better to let the markets digest the prices, and make a determination from there.

 

[crws]

JT,
What do you think about charting the relationship between Gold, USD, and the Dow, say over the past 6 months.
Is it just me, or is cash flowing back and forth between Gold and the Dollar, taking the Dow along for the cycle ride?
Is there a wedge to the USD channel?

 

[crws]

ps.
I tried my hand at freecharts, but lacked a comparative threshold to show any relationship and it turned out blase.
Got any advice to pass along on how you would set up a chart comparison for these?

JT,
What do you think about charting the relationship between Gold, USD, and the Dow, say over the past 6 months.
Is it just me, or is cash flowing back and forth between Gold and the Dollar, taking the Dow along for the cycle ride?
Is there a wedge to the USD channel?

 

[JTH]

JT,
What do you think about charting the relationship between Gold, USD, and the Dow, say over the past 6 months.

Over the past 6 months the DOW appears the most stable with a rising PVI & NVI. Gold appears to have undergone a major transition staring about late October (this shows on multiple timeframes.) The only sliver of good news for gold is that the NVI (smart volume) hasn't turned down yet. If it does head south, it would be one hell of ah busted bubble. As for the dollar, I see it as flat for the most part.

Daily Chart, 6 month view of the DOW:
View attachment 10514

Daily Chart, 6 month view of Gold:
View attachment 10515

Daily Chart, 6 month view of the Dollar:
View attachment 10516

JT,Is there a wedge to the USD channel?

Yes, but with federal intervention I'm not prepared to make any valid predictions on the dollar.

Monthly Chart of the Dollar:
View attachment 10517

 

[crws]

Over the past 6 months the DOW appears the most stable with a rising PVI & NVI. Gold appears to have undergone a major transition staring about late October (this shows on multiple timeframes.) The only sliver of good news for gold is that the NVI (smart volume) hasn't turned down yet. If it does head south, it would be one hell of ah busted bubble. As for the dollar, I see it as flat for the most part.

Daily Chart, 6 month view of the DOW:
View attachment 10514

Daily Chart, 6 month view of Gold:
View attachment 10515

Daily Chart, 6 month view of the Dollar:
View attachment 10516



Yes, but with federal intervention I'm not prepared to make any valid predictions on the dollar.

Monthly Chart of the Dollar:
View attachment 10517

Excellent! Man, you do some great chart work.
Much obliged.

 

[JTH]

IFT 100% S-Fund EoB Today.

 

[JTH]

Last time I posted this chart, I predicted the bear flag would give a price target of 105, and we fell just short of that. So now we've have a fake-breakout both to the upside & to the downside. From my perspective this is a very long wedge, if it breaks down it should be good for stocks.

View attachment 10519

 

[Birchtree]

I see the transports are stronger today playing catchup I presume. At least you're not buying the S fund at $22.00. Anyway I'm catching 20% of the S fund probably until next Monday.