JTH's Account Talk

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Although a bit sloppy, the Transports appear poised for a breakout with this pent-up energy. Yes it did close down for the day, but only after putting in yet another 52 week high.
30 Minute:
View attachment 10450


The VIX is still trading in a nice quiet & tight range, just the way we like it...just before the fall. Although I have this range outlined, in the grand scheme of things I'm now watching the 19.50 area for a sense of real fear.
30 Minute:
View attachment 10451


Check out the beautiful breakout, then supporting confirmation from previous resistance. For me this pattern would seem to suggest a price target of 684.
30 Minute:
View attachment 10452
 
It would appear some of my chart patterns today are coming to fruition. The VIX has confirmed this move by breaking down into the lower channel. I don’t think I’ll be trying to catch this move today, unless I see something that triggers a justifiable move, and for my sitiuation this isn’t likely to happen today.
 
There’s no better feeling in the world when you’ve made a graceful exit from the markets, only to miss out on one hell-of-ah gain the next day. Such is life, I am not perfect, I cannot pick the perfect top, I will not chase the end of a rainbow.
 
Intrepid_Trader said:
I'll buy the beer if AGG goes up and fills that gap in the 107 area.............;)
Click to expand...

Not sure when that huge gap will fill, perhaps when we push some real fear onto stocks. I myself dont see me playing the f-fund much this year, i dont have a system for it and dont want it to influence my stock timing. That's a great call you made sticking around an extra day, it's nice when you know you hit the sweet spot...
 
JTH said:
There’s no better feeling in the world when you’ve made a graceful exit from the markets, only to miss out on one hell-of-ah gain the next day. Such is life, I am not perfect, I cannot pick the perfect top, I will not chase the end of a rainbow.
Click to expand...

Some lucky son-of-a-gun(s) will though, JTH. The clowns that usually populate the top of the tracker, eh? :D
 
Gumby said:
Jason,

Great call! Now for the 64 dollar question.... Where is it heading next week? :)
Click to expand...

Thank you for asking Gumby, I have to step back to the weekly chart to give us better outlook. Here I've outlined the last two pullbacks one in red the other in yellow. Anything above the green trend-line shows the top is not yet in and the bull trend is intact. A break below the green trendline shows me a test of 662. A break below 662 shows a test of 640, and that's a VERY important number.

640 is a 50% retracement from the last pullback and a 25% retracement from the September pullback. 640 needs to hold, 640 needs to hold, 640 needs to hold...

View attachment 10481
 
Just for fun, I'm watching AGG's Bear Flag within the Bearish rising wedge. I'm giving it a 105 price target. Thing is these patterns shouldn't play out because AGG is putting in higher highs & higher lows, what gives these patterns weight is their previous bearish disposition.

View attachment 10484
 
JTH said:
Thank you for asking Gumby, I have to step back to the weekly chart to give us better outlook. Here I've outlined the last two pullbacks one in red the other in yellow. Anything above the green trend-line shows the top is not yet in and the bull trend is intact. A break below the green trendline shows me a test of 662. A break below 662 shows a test of 640, and that's a VERY important number.

640 is a 50% retracement from the last pullback and a 25% retracement from the September pullback. 640 needs to hold, 640 needs to hold, 640 needs to hold...

View attachment 10481
Click to expand...

Jason,

Another good call.
Looks like a bounce off from 664 this morning. A little more than 3% drop to get to 640.... maybe it won't happen.... at least until Feb.
 
To all:

When the transports & small caps fail, this isn't a knife you want to catch...
 
I think we may be seeing a rotation out of technology into financials - that's healthy. We are now set for an impressive rally back to resistance and beyond. I believe in 1995 there was no consolidation greater than 3.8%.
 
JTH said:
To all:

When the transports & small caps fail, this isn't a knife you want to catch...
Click to expand...

Well JTH has this turned into the proverbial falling knife?

Oh yeah. Tom bought in today, so that will likely kill it for sure! :D
 
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