JTH's Account Talk

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The price action today hasn't convienced me we are ready to resume the uptrend just yet. I'l look to the last hour of trading to see where this market wants to head.
 
JTH said:
IFT EOB today

15% G-Fund
85% C-Fund
Click to expand...

JTH,

Noticed this IFT you posted for COB 11/1/10. If you were to make an IFT COB today removing your 15% G to C/S or I, how would that affect your current 85% C? Would this be a smart move if the market is trending up?

Maabee6
 
maabee6 said:
JTH,

Noticed this IFT you posted for COB 11/1/10. If you were to make an IFT COB today removing your 15% G to C/S or I, how would that affect your current 85% C? Would this be a smart move if the market is trending up?

Maabee6
Click to expand...

Well, the initial IFT was just to get me out of the F-Fund, I chose the C-Fund because it was underperforming the S-Fund and I felt it had potential to close the performance gap. That didn't happen, if I had to enter the markets today, I'd choose the S-Fund based on previous performance.
 
JTH said:
The price action today hasn't convienced me we are ready to resume the uptrend just yet. I'l look to the last hour of trading to see where this market wants to head.
Click to expand...

Looks like I got my answer...
 
I would love to see this as a buying opportunity, but first we need to put in a floor... Patience is required here :cool:
 
Right with you on these calls, JTH. Trouble is, I'm out of bullets, & considering whether to dump F fund tomorrow, if it violates AGG 106.6. We shall see.

If you've got bullets, Wed 11/17 looks to be the day to take your best shot. Good luck!
 
prometheus said:
Right with you on these calls, JTH. Trouble is, I'm out of bullets, & considering whether to dump F fund tomorrow, if it violates AGG 106.6. We shall see.

If you've got bullets, Wed 11/17 looks to be the day to take your best shot. Good luck!
Click to expand...

I used the first bullet 1 Nov to exit the F-Fund, and this has put me in a disposition through this month. I'll get back on track next month, hit the reset, and use my IFTs more wisely.

As for today, I'm going to watch the last hour of trading as a clue to the direction of prices.
 
SPY 4-Hour Chart: From the September pop we are still within the confines of the channel, although channels do continuously evolve, we may ride this one a bit longer if we can hold and rise from here.

View attachment 10221
 
Hope you checked your weapon, today, the picture is getting very ugly with Ireland still a big question mark, & the only Bullish factor, a Fed party, looking less & less likely to be the $600 billion rager advertised.

Personally retreated to 67G,19C,14S today; all the short term (3-5min) systems are saying we are peaking out at 1-2pm EST, meaning this is most likely a bear flag, & SPX 1150-1160 is the next stop. US$ hourlies also failed to print below 79, & the 5-hours look like a bull flag as well; time to lay low while we retest up to 80. I'd give it 2:1 that we see mostly red for the next two weeks, then we can evaluate reentry for a Xmas rally to 1250-1300.

JTH said:
I used the first bullet 1 Nov to exit the F-Fund, and this has put me in a disposition through this month. I'll get back on track next month, hit the reset, and use my IFTs more wisely.

As for today, I'm going to watch the last hour of trading as a clue to the direction of prices.
Click to expand...
 
so at the risk of stating what might be obvious to a few, the up tick we're seeing on the lower chart (where its turned up in green) is fortelling an uptick on the upper chart, right?
 
I don't look at this chart as a predection of prices to come, just an indication we were oversold (on the extream side) and the day prior could be a good place to catch a bounce. I should have posted this chart the day before, it's a problem I have, I have so many charts I don't always get to look at them all and capitalize things like this. :cool:
 
crws said:
Hey JT-
Are you able to do a SPX vs USD relativity chart based on inverse % moves (USD down, SPX up) to see if they are an overall % to % match?

See here:
A Dollar-Devaluation Adjusted Market Has Barely Moved Above Its 2009 Lows

and Uptrend's thread,
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=290289&postcount=1867
Click to expand...

All charts are based off the 2009 March 666 low, I'll let you come to your own conclusions...

Gold vs. the U.S. Dollar
View attachment 10232

S&P 500 vs. the U.S. Dollar
View attachment 10233

Oil vs. the U.S. Dollar
View attachment 10234

Price perfomance chart showing the S&P 500, oil, gold, and USD
View attachment 10235
 
So the SPX is now a FOREX trading mechanism. Amazing.
The "Black Gold" is even more pronounced. Almost an identical trace.
Nice work. Thanks!
 
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