JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

You may notice we have a previous X at the 1150 level. I'd estimate we'll meet stiff resistence here, but if we break through, it should be easy sailing to 1170 and perhaps a push to 1230.

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[JTH]

This is indicitive of what happend the previous time the Transport's 15 minute 50MA dipped below the 200. So the question then becomes does anyone want to jump in and catch the next 10 points to 1070? I caught the last two awesome waves, had I caught this one, then I'd gander I would have proudly made an exit today. Tsk tsk you can't catch all, (well you can if you're Birch-Tree.)

 

[Gumby]

You may notice we have a previous X at the 1150 level. I'd estimate we'll meet stiff resistence here, but if we break through, it should be easy sailing to 1170 and perhaps a push to 1230.

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It may do it by the end of October... if the wheels don't come off first.

 

[JTH]

My precious metals position is up 31%, so I've scaled back another 1/4.

Taking a full exit from this postion. I havent spent much time evaluating the markets latley. Perhaps Monday I'll get a chance to re-evaluat my positions and find a new entry point and add a few new sysmbols into the mix, to reflect today's market conditions.

I'm looking for a relationship change between the markets, comodities, and the dollar to happen soon.

 

[Birchtree]

A $17.75 price on the S fund would please me immensely and that may be possible if the 4-year cycle bottoms - providing it didn't nest back in July. So bring on the pain and then we can move forward.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice job on the precious metals trade JTH!

 

[Birchtree]

Those were some good thoughts on the bottom feeders station in their investing disciplines. You must be on excellent behavior leave from the "Smokey Bear Rehabilitation Center". Actually the more bears about town the better.

 

[JTH]

Nice job on the precious metals trade JTH!

Thanks Tom, it's good to be on the right side of the trade. I find a do better, if I don't rush things by seeing a trade that isn't there.

Those were some good thoughts on the bottom feeders station in their investing disciplines. You must be on excellent behavior leave from the "Smokey Bear Rehabilitation Center". Actually the more bears about town the better.

Thanks BT, you know some folks don't want to hear the truth and that's their choice. Some people might say I'm difficult and I suppose that's true. But never let it be said that I don't care about the people in this forum and have a keen interest in all if us making money together.

 

[JTH]

IFT EOB Today, from 100-G to 100-F

Reason? It's almost the middle of the month and I'd like to at a minimum outperform the G-Fund. I'd rather use the first IFT to find an entry in bonds, and then use the second one to find an entry in stocks. The goal is to end the month invested in stocks, giving me a little more leverage.

Why not stocks? There isn't anything wrong with stocks right now, prices could continue higher for 1 day or till the end of the year, and frankly it's ok to say "I don't know." What I don't want to do is jump in at the top, then all of a sudden we get that long overdue pullback, so I'll patiently wait...

 

[Birchtree]

My Dow target for today was +110 - it looks like we may do much more than that. Fear drives out greed in the bears and greed drives out fear in the bulls. It's time for a gut check.

 

[JTH]

Despite what the disbelieving naysayers say, the trend is still up untill proven otherwise. I haven't chosen not to be in stocks, I've just chosen to wait for an entry point that has a statistical advantage. :cheesy:

At this moment I'm looking at an 1155-1185 trading range, we can see we built a fairly strong shelve before we broke through 1155, and I'd expect it to hold. If it doesn't, then I'd not be surprised to see a strong & swift pullback.

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[Birchtree]

I thought there was a possibility that I might be visiting you soon - but not this week. Perhaps next week we'll get some pain and I'll reach down but I won't stay long.

 

[JTH]

I thought there was a possibility that I might be visiting you soon - but not this week. Perhaps next week we'll get some pain and I'll reach down but I won't stay long.

The thought did cross my mind as well. Bonds have been getting a bid over the last threes days, but I'll have to wait for a higher high or a rejection to get confirmation on the direction of stocks.

 

[JTH]

Now that's a gutsy move - you must be anticipating the dollar to plunge through the support level of 76. Not going to happen. But if you don't take the risk you won't make the gain. Let'er rip.

I show the dollar hit a low today of 76.732 do you still think 76 will hold as support?

 

[Birchtree]

There will come a time in the not to distant future when the lower dollar and the equity market will disconnect. Then a stronger dollar will mean a stronger economy and a stronger stock market. I think the dollar will hold support at the 76 level.

 

[JTH]

This F-fund position hasn't worked out so well, and today's price action (with a head & shoulders forming) confirmed it was a mistake to begin with. Perhaps it will take a bit more patience then I have, and I do admit mine is running thin. Thing is I wanted to use my last IFT to take up a position in stocks at the end of this month, but I never received the pullback I was waiting for. If I jump into stocks this week and the pullback does begin, I'll be forced to either suck it up, or bail. The charts already told me what I should do, but the limited number of IFTs has prevented me from making a move, and as a result my performance is sucking...

 

[JTH]

1st time we've seen AGG break below the 50SMA since April.

View attachment 10119

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like a head and shoulders too...

 

[Bullitt]

Goldman Sachs did a 50 year bond this week and that's all I need to know about which way bonds are going. Time to look at those opinion articles from 10 months ago about the Bond Vigilantes. I have a feeling they will be back soon.

 

[Birchtree]

That 50 year bond has a 5 year call provision attached to it as a hedge.