JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

What key levels? (BTW - I am not bailing; I'm underweighting F, tripling down on CSI at COB today, we will see if this results in a 3%+ market drop for the third time in a row - i.e., day following my IFT; I should get a medal for being in pository for the year for that incompetence).

From my Sunday blog, Fibonacci levels, 1084 on the hourly July channel, and 1091 on the Daily May Channel.

 

[JTH]

JTH - WILL you be eating Birch's shorts or not? Will there be a utube video? If so send me the link please!!

Yes people DO read the IFT board - yuk yuk.

I had a few medals but they were stolen many years ago by a crack addict - but I can give you a pair of sticky pants. I think you'd probably look good in a pair of sticky jeggings.

Well I've already eaten my fair share of crow, a pair of shorts should be a breeze...

 

[Birchtree]

Now you are about to find out why I've been buying furniture stocks. I bought a Rowe couch and love seat last year. I also have a birdseye maple futon couch that has lasted over twenty years along with a matching corner chair. The rule is - the more it costs the longer it will last. I'm sure Pinch-a-Penny will enjoy a new customer for their pool supplies. Paper filters used to cost $60 - I made mine last by soaking them in half water and half chlorine and then spraying clean. That Texas sun will eat chlorine - and the rains will turn your color over night. Plan to utilize your Saturday mornings for yard upkeep and pool sweeping.

 

[JTH]

No time for a blog, so here are some charts.
View attachment 9872

View attachment 9873

 

[JTH]

I'm staying in because I'm at break even with my current entry point. This is a tough spot to be in if you're looking for an entry point. On the July hourly rising channel, we closed just above 50%

We've tested 1070 & 1100 twice. I suspect a break above 1084 will lead back up to 1100, and a break below 1069 will take us to 1050-1056. Since we are trading in a 1170-1100 trading range and this is a wave down from the previous wave, I'm giving the edge to the bears. Still, considering the bad news we had today, I don't think the bears won any battles just yet.
View attachment 9874

 

[JTH]

Well poo, the downtrend is getting stronger, which means the May Channel is more dominant than the July channel. Not looking good for me, espically when I new the point I should have exited. While I'm up for the month, I'm not up from my last entry. If I was smart, I'd exit stocks now, take a small loss, and let my 25% F-Fund make up the difference. Either ways this sucks...

 

[tsptalk]

If I was smart, I'd ...

Let us know if you do the smart thing or not. Sounds like the answer is in front of you. This is usually how longer term bad plays start out. I still have the scars from 2008 to prove it.

 

[CapeChem]

JT that was my logic when i bailed at 1022....... I ate my losses and missed the ride back up...i shoud have stuck it out.....now i am stuck waiting for a return to 1022..... but that was my mistake.

 

[crws]

Well poo, the downtrend is getting stronger, which means the May Channel is more dominant than the July channel. Not looking good for me, espically when I new the point I should have exited. While I'm up for the month, I'm not up from my last entry. If I was smart, I'd exit stocks now, take a small loss, and let my 25% F-Fund make up the difference. Either ways this sucks...

Agreed, I was expecting a little pop to get back even this month, but sellers have hammered control.
Take a look at yesterdays selling spike during the last 5min on the Dow (and again this morning), and you will see hope for any ST comeback is dwindling.
USD is up almost .75, AGG is near an all-time high and down, maybe seesaw to eek out a net gain ST?
Not a pretty picture, looks like the markets' got us in check... one safe move...
I bailed into F yesterday as planned, but without all the upside I'd hoped for based on this years' OPEX trend.
The bears have got this one firmly in their grasp, and history is on their side for the next few months...Good luck.
-PS I've adjusted my contributions to 25% each equity in expectation of a MT Birchtree-style DCA opportunity! :nuts:

 

[JTH]

Just for the record, your "Pound of flesh" comment was wholly inappropriate. Lest you not forget you dug this grave and buried yourself in it. You were a moderator, given a special trust to enforce the rules, not break them. They have a word for that, it's called hypocrite...

Trying to single out those who don't forgive you? Well I've changed my mind, you're dead to me, I don't forgive you so you can proudly add me to your list of unforgivables.

 

[JTH]

Gaps get filled, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon...

View attachment 9887

 

[JTH]

We can see we've broken through the previous two swing lows and the next swing low is 1010. I've been talking about 1010 for awhile and I'm glad to see others have as well.

I suppose I could sell here, and break even for the month, but I don't care to be on the sidelines without an IFT. I haven't contributed to TSP in 2 years and now that my loan is paid off I WILL NOT sell for a loss. If anything, I may take out another TSP loan and use it to fatten up my ROTH IRA & brokerage account. With that money, I could outperform the TSP loan rate

View attachment 9888

 

[Birchtree]

Well if you're going to stick so will I - buy'em when they are cheap. We could easily see a nice long tail on the close and rebound the rest of the week. The MCO is more oversold than it was in June. I can smell manure.

 

[mayday]

We can see we've broken through the previous two swing lows and the next swing low is 1010. I've been talking about 1010 for awhile and I'm glad to see others have as well.

I suppose I could sell here, and break even for the month, but I don't care to be on the sidelines without an IFT. I haven't contributed to TSP in 2 years and now that my loan is paid off I WILL NOT sell for a loss. If anything, I may take out another TSP loan and use it to fatten up my ROTH IRA & brokerage account. With that money, I could outperform the TSP loan rate

View attachment 9888

JTH: It looks as if we have bounced off a major resistance point.

 

[JTH]

JTH: It looks as if we have bounced off a major resistance point.

Perhaps, I was expecting 1056 to be the major area to watch and now that we've broken through this level, it could be an exhaustive spike low. AGG is getting toppy again, I may sell it off, it's performed well for me.

 

[JTH]

Well if you're going to stick so will I - buy'em when they are cheap. We could easily see a nice long tail on the close and rebound the rest of the week. The MCO is more oversold than it was in June. I can smell manure.

I should point out I can't take out another TSP loan till October. If need be I can hold this position until then. I'm prepared to ride this market down to 1000, then use my 25% F-fund to buy more stocks thereby lowering my cost average. If we break to the upside from there, I'll look like a hero, if we break down I'll be a zero...

 

[JTH]

I spent an extensive amount of time going over my charts last night, evaluating key trendlines from all the major swing lows going back to the March 2009 bottom, covering mutilple charts over multiple timeframes. I also looked at my PVI/NVI volume indicators, stochastics and such, along with my usual regression channels & Fibonacci levels.

I've done a great job this year of evaluating key price levels and identifing trends, but within TSP I've not done a very good job capitalizing on what I know. Once again, the IFT restrictions have had a severe impact on my trading statigy and have left me in these markets longer than I otherwise would have, had I had an extra IFT to use.

The writing appears to be on the wall, and this market appears hell-bent on testing lower levels, levels I do not wish to hold for. Trendlines based on the March 09, July 09, Nov 09, & July 10, show we are in various states of testing & breaking support, with not much else keeping us afloat should we break through the lowest of the trends, the downside is painful.

Today I will stay in, and then re-evaluate my position at the end of the day, taking things one day at a time, but very mindful of the long-term projections. As far as I'm concerned the Bull market was over with the May peak, and I do not believe we will visit those levels for the remainder of this year. My best bet is to pick the intermediate bottoms and sell the bounces, best of luck...Jason

 

[JTH]

Here's a close look at the 2-day trend chart from my most recent blog. Also, here are the updated weekly & Quarterly chart threads.

View attachment 9916

 

[JTH]

Taking F-Fund profits off the table.

IFT From 25FCSI to 24G, 25C, 26S, 25I. Nice to get a 1% bump in the S-Fund.

 

[JTH]

It was rough staying invested last month, but with some good timing and a decent F-Fund to hedge, I did faily well and managed to stick it out and start the next month 76% invested.

I'll be watching the markets closely this morning, and if I feel they hit their levels and will hold up, I'll make an exit. This has been my intended strategy this year, where I start the month already invested, then pull back with the 1st IFT. This method leaves me with 1 more IFT with which to jump back in on a dip.

I happen to believe we may only have 1-2 more days of a rally, before we work on the next swing low and the next swing low could be extreamely important in determining the price action for the remainder of the year.