JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
I don't like to forecast, if I'm wrong I should know by a visible breakout above the boxes. Note: This chart uses End of Day closing prices only. This chart is based on some simple Fibonacci projections, price, and time. If my assessment is correct, one should reserve their last IFT for the end of the month.
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To get out or get in?
 
nasa1974 said:
To get out or get in?
Click to expand...

To get in, but that projection is based on a downward turndate of this week. Today was a stronger day than I anticipated, but it still left some open questions to be answered in the future.
 
History says 50/50 the week after next thru the end of the month sucks.
Might be a wrinkle having the good #'s sofar however, and turn the rest of the summer into an exception.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=278278#post278278

JTH said:
I don't like to forecast, if I'm wrong I should know by a visible breakout above the boxes. Note: This chart uses End of Day closing prices only. This chart is based on some simple Fibonacci projections, price, and time. If my assessment is correct, one should reserve their last IFT for the end of the month.
Click to expand...
 
Some quick observations.

The 15 minute SPX chart shows over the last 3 days we've been in a 1080-1100 trading range.

1st High 1099.46
2nd High 1099.08
3rd High 1098.66

Placing a linear regression line over this range of prices, shows they are slowly declining.

I have a sneaking suspension prices are going to break out of the box today or Monday. If you look at the last 3 days, it looks like an inverted cup & handle, therefore I suspect it may breakout to the downside, unless we find a news-driven catalysis to push these markets up further.

View attachment 9718
 
Would positive news on the BP well testing do it or would it have to be of the economic news variety?
 
WorkFE said:
Would positive news on the BP well testing do it or would it have to be of the economic news variety?
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Yes I believe it would & should, however it could provide the opposite reaction and prices could have an exhaustive spike just before a brilliant collapse. (Just a theory)
 
There could be some selling pressure today as people are expecting a course reversal just because it has been a while and I can't say, in this environment, I disagree with them. The bigger question will be How Deep. IMO it will be short lived and we'll be back on the horse next week.
 
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WorkFE said:
There could be some selling pressure today as people are expecting a course reversal just because it has been a while and I can't say, in this environment, I disagree with them. The bigger question will be How Deep. IMO it will be short lived and we'll be back on the horse next week.
Click to expand...

Truth be told, you did really well last year, and when you have something to say I give your words weight. I can't say I agree with your take on these markets, but that's just how these markets are right now, very devisive, with very few straddling the fence...
 
Much talk of a steeper correction and believe me I listen. I just try not to get to wrapped up in the hype up or down. Losing my hair & teeth and I'm not trying to excellerate the natural regression.:D
Up is a chance to increase the value of my accounts, Down is a chance to buy more shares at lower prices hopefully increasing the value of my accounts. Trying to keep it simple. In my mind anyway.

Analyst have the pulse of the market but sometimes (quite often lately) the market makes them look, well, stupid. We have to weigh whether they don't know what they are talking about anymore or, as most mouth pieces do, they have an agenda.
Believe it or not I give more weight to what I read on here than I do outside. I'll let you know at the end of every year how that is working out for me.:nuts:
 
Birchtree, it's rather sickening to see all your cult-like Cramericans follow you to the bottom of the tracker. I hear it all the time, things like "it's only money" and "I'm content with my position." Oh really? Your content with flushing your money down the toilet too? Buy & Hold (or DCA whatever) is just an excuse to justify ****-poor earnings. Seriously, if you care about your money, then you should care enough to educate yourself enough to know how to manage your money. The main purpose of this forum is to make money, more money than you would by just doing nothing. I don't come here to meet the standards, I come here to exceed the standards. The rest of you under-educated bloodly wankers can just eat my shorts...
 
heck i tried to bail , they changed the tsp gov, for some reason my account # dont work , have to wait 10 days for a new password reset:mad:,dont you just love change,just have to wait my ten and see if i need Norms bandages back:confused:
 
Unfortunately JTH you must have had a bad day. Don't worry you'll feel just as bad tomorrow. Did I make money today - yes to the tune of $94K. Ain't it time to turn bullish. "It's only the little guy, who doesn't understand what has just happened, that continues to fight the trend change. This is usually about the time that I see the technicians start calling for this or that resistance level or trend line to put a halt to the rally. They are, of course. assuming this is a bear market rally and it will soon be over." Now don't take things so seriously just because I'm on your tail - I might just get by you tomorrow.
 
you could try to give them a call...
877-968-3778
kar crazy said:
heck i tried to bail , they changed the tsp gov, for some reason my account # dont work , have to wait 10 days for a new password reset:mad:,dont you just love change,just have to wait my ten and see if i need Norms bandages back:confused:
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the tracker is but a game to make light of the inevitable day we will all be using it to survive on, and hopefully as JTH points out, manage it effectively to avoid a cat food quality rating from Boghie....
I would, however, put forth it is probably not unlike the financial competition that goes on inside Wall St.

Fortunately for my fellow board member Birch, the socialists (in office and in other countires) have earned him the right to pay a small portion of his earnings in capital gains tax to our collective benefit. :D
Thanks Buddy!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/abb-helps-europe-extend-gains-to-three-sessions-2010-07-22

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares ended with sharp gains on Thursday, boosted by unexpectedly upbeat euro-zone economic data and strong earnings results from a number of companies, including Swiss firm ABB Ltd.

JTH said:
Birchtree, it's rather sickening to see all your cult-like Cramericans follow you to the bottom of the tracker. I hear it all the time, things like "it's only money" and "I'm content with my position." Oh really? Your content with flushing your money down the toilet too? Buy & Hold (or DCA whatever) is just an excuse to justify ****-poor earnings. Seriously, if you care about your money, then you should care enough to educate yourself enough to know how to manage your money. The main purpose of this forum is to make money, more money than you would by just doing nothing. I don't come here to meet the standards, I come here to exceed the standards. The rest of you under-educated bloodly wankers can just eat my shorts...
Click to expand...
 
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