JTH's Account Talk

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Hourly Transports with a short-term double top coinciding with the 500EMA. This is a key level for me to watch, if we close above it and stay above it tomorrow before the IFT deadline, I may jump in.

View attachment 9567
 
Lots of double tops on the short-term charts. This months trading range is 1105-1042, so a break in either direction should provide confirmation. I consider myself fairly neutral considering prices are still within the rising price channel, yet were rejected by the previous June 3rd top.

IMHO if you're already in there isn't any reason to get out, and if you're already out there isn't any reason to get in. If you're looking for an entry/exit, the best advice I have is to trade opposite of what the markets are doing before the IFT deadline....:cool:

View attachment 9569

 
I'm slightly concerned about my position in the F-Fund, with AGG showing a lower high, with the potential of a Head & Shoulders. This could take prices back to the May lows. Of course, this could be great for stocks, as folks in bonds make an exit...

View attachment 9570
 
LARGE CAPS LAG


Some folks may be wondering why the S&P 500's recent performance is weaker then that of the Transports, NASDAQ, & Small Caps. The S&P 500 is made up of the S&P 100 Large caps & S&P 400 Mid caps. Here is a Price Performance Percentage chart comparing the indexes side by side, form the February low to today. Listed below is the order of the indexes from top to bottom.


Transports
S&P 600 Small Caps
S&P 400 Mid Caps
NASDAQ
S&P 500 Large & Mid Caps
S&P 100 Large Caps

View attachment 9571

Large caps companies tend to have more overseas exposure, so the weakness in Europe could be dragging them down.

 
June IFT #2 40/60 bonds/stocks, hedged & prepared to accept either outcome.

G-10
F-30
C-20
S-20
I-20
 
Sorry buddy I haven't had much time to post charts, I'm still adjusting to my new work schedule. I tend to agree the market is oversold. We've already established a higher high, but the last low was about dead even with the previous one. The question then becomes do we establish a higher low and this unanswered question is where I'm willing to accept some risk (being it's getting close to the end of the month.)

I am watching an inverted head & shoulders on the transports that appear poised to make an upward thrust to form the right shoulder. I'm also considering the July 4th weekend, End of Month money rolling in, and a great deal of bad news already priced in.

Also, my IFT is hedged, giving me the option to pull back either bonds or stocks, whichever doesn't go my way.

View attachment 9620

View attachment 9621
 
From my blog 12 Month Simple Moving Average

"Right now my S&P 500 analysis tells me we have established a strong intermediate-long downtrend. I expect a break of of 1040, if that happens then I expect a quick test of 1032, I consider it important because it's the 500 day SMA. Afterwards, we test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1014 , and if that breaks we go to 950. With the increase in volatility I consider the short-term 50/200 MA Golden Crosses to be mixed and unreliably partly due to the IFT limitations within TSP."

Right now the 500 SMA is at 1024.71

View attachment 9633
 
A lot of traders think we're oversold and due for a bounce next week, just before the earnings season kicks off. This tells me everyone is looking to exit out the back door and leave you "Mr Joe" stuck with the bill...


All I know is when I look at these charts (all of them and all timeframes) I ask myself...

If you step in it why would you want to eat it?
 
JTH said:
A lot of traders think we're oversold and due for a bounce next week.
Click to expand...

There will always be bulls are bears. Unfortunately it all depends on what slant the media wants to print. If they want hope, all they need to do is print the "hoping for an oversold bounce" interviews and throw the bear interviews into the vaults.
 
as exemplified by CN.BS:laugh:

Bullitt said:
There will always be bulls are bears. Unfortunately it all depends on what slant the media wants to print. If they want hope, all they need to do is print the "hoping for an oversold bounce" interviews and throw the bear interviews into the vaults.
Click to expand...
 
Looks like some of the charts are turning, and I'm almost believing the SPX 1010 botom is in. At the moment I'll keep the 40GF/70CSI allocation, as I'm looking for yet to be seen confirmation from the transports & small caps. Best of luck to anyone looking to jump in.
 
JTH said:
Looks like some of the charts are turning, and I'm almost believing the SPX 1010 botom is in. At the moment I'll keep the 40GF/70CSI allocation, as I'm looking for yet to be seen confirmation from the transports & small caps. Best of luck to anyone looking to jump in.
Click to expand...

I 'm already in and have ridden this turkey all the way down from my high point at the end of April. Can't afford to jump out of the game now. I have to make up 18% somehow. :blink:
 
Think so?

Sometimes I wish I had never decided to try and learn about all that market stuff...
 
KevinD said:
Think so?

Sometimes I wish I had never decided to try and learn about all that market stuff...
Click to expand...

I don't like to forecast, if I'm wrong I should know by a visible breakout above the boxes. Note: This chart uses End of Day closing prices only. This chart is based on some simple Fibonacci projections, price, and time. If my assessment is correct, one should reserve their last IFT for the end of the month.
 
JTH,

Good work. This morning so far the SPX has held above the third box @ 1095.42 at 12:18.
Thanks for your work.
 
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