JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
SQ, thanks for dropping into say hi, I'm glad to see you're posting more often and hope this early retirement thing isn't driving you bonkers!
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Indeed, it is my pleasure ! And,,,,, I haven't gone bonkers yet ! ;)
 
Birchtree said:
JTH,

I'm so pleased that you finally put that silly bear suit away.
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Thanks Birchtree, if I've learned anything it's that you need to have a flexible open mind, follow price, and move on when your wrong. Although I still have concerns about the I-Fund, I do believe overseas investors will flee to the American markets and our bonds.

The more the PIGGS collapse, the better the Bull Market for the FCS funds.
 
I reviewed my charts last night. My indicators are telling me we aren't as overbought as I would have thought. That tells me we have more room to grow to the upside.

I am concerned that the ocillators are putting in lower highes and the the PVI is not as strong as it shoud be for a bull market. The NVI is holding us up, if they bail without support from the PVI, this market should falter. The ADX hasn't gained much momentum either.

So here we are floating this market higher on low volume, again...
 
JTH said:
It's very hard not to make an exit to the sidelines today.
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I agree, and the way this jacked up TSP trading rule is. I can't sell because I have already used a transaction to buy this month already. If I sell that will count towards my second transaction. Then I am stuck for the rest of the month. And with my luck, the markets will take off. So, I will keep my money in until it reaches a little higher, or wait and buy a little lower. ugh

Steve
 
sdouglas3 said:
I agree, and the way this jacked up TSP trading rule is. I can't sell because I have already used a transaction to buy this month already. If I sell that will count towards my second transaction. Then I am stuck for the rest of the month. And with my luck, the markets will take off. So, I will keep my money in until it reaches a little higher, or wait and buy a little lower. ugh

Steve
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Yes it does urk me to no end. In the first 2 weeks of Jan I was #1 in the tracker, I should have exited based on not being a greedy little pig. But it was too early in the month.

Long story short, I ended that month in the the bottom 300 :rolleyes:

Pigs do get slaughtered...
 
Nice, after putting my sell order in now the thing is waterfalling. The Noon trade deadline bothers me more than the 2 IFT limit
 
CrabClaw said:
Nice, after putting my sell order in now the thing is waterfalling. The Noon trade deadline bothers me more than the 2 IFT limit
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Totally agree on that, I mean why can't they push the cuttoff? All this is done by computers anyways right? When I buy mutual funds through USAA the order can be placed anytime during the day, but the actual purchase is done after the markets close.

Getting ripped off here...
 
I did the exact same thing JT...got greedy in january and am just now getiing +....If i had made one well time IFT in January i would be sittin in high cotton.....but noooooo.
 




If you're looking for the bad news bears, it's a little scarce and hard to come by as of late. So I dug up this 15 minute chart of the VIX showing it's first close above the 200EMA since February 25th. The 60 minute chart shows we are getting close to the top of the channel and a close above the 50EMA.





Some thoughts on AGG, the F-Fund, and bonds in general. On the daily chart we can see prices are consolidating within the yellow Fibonacci zone, as are the 20/50EMA. In last nights blog I introduced the PVI/NVI indicators. If you look at at the NVI (the smart volume) you can see it peaked on 25 February. This was the day the S&P 500 put in its last swing low. Combine these two thoughts and you can conclude the smart money is slipping out of bonds and into stocks.

 
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"""Combine these two thoughts and you can conclude the smart money is slipping out of bonds and into stocks.""""


One can observe the recent 10 year note action which appears to confirm this notion of smart money fleeing bonds.
 
CrabClaw said:
Nice, after putting my sell order in now the thing is waterfalling. The Noon trade deadline bothers me more than the 2 IFT limit
Click to expand...

I have written the board asking for a 4 IFT limit. You could do the same for a noon cutoff. Who knows, maybe it will work. I have a thread with the board's address on it.
 
You would have better luck if you were to pee into the wind. They don't care about timers. Timers are the minority compared to the group.
 
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